Mariners vs. Astros Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Houston starter Framber Valdez to take mound as AL Cy Young betting favorite for first time this season
Houston lefty Framber Valdez is the new AL Cy Young favorite.
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No American League team has had back-to-back Cy Young Award winners since Cleveland did so in 2007-08, but that could change this season as Houston Astros ace Framber Valdez is expected to take the mound on Thursday at home vs. the Seattle Mariners as the AL Cy Young betting favorite (+200) for the first time in 2023 at BetMGM.
Of course, Justin Verlander won the 2022 Cy Young with Houston but then signed with the Mets in free agency. CC Sabathia and Cliff Liee won the award for Cleveland in 2007 and 2008, respectively. A few NL teams have had back-to-back winners since then, with the same person winning twice (Jacob deGrom with the Mets, Max Scherzer with the Nationals, Clayton Kershaw with the Dodgers, Tim Lincecum with the Giants).
Valdez was 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA last year, leading the AL in quality starts, complete games and innings pitched while finishing a career-high fifth in the Cy Young voting. This year, he's 7-6 with a 2.49 ERA (AL best), 110 strikeouts and a 1.05 WHIP in 16 starts. Valdez should have a much better record but gets only 3.9 runs of support per game. He had his last start skipped with a minor ankle injury but was cleared to start Thursday -- it just hasn't been made official yet, so the game's odds aren't settled.
New York's Gerrit Cole and Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan had been the Cy Young favorites for most of this season in the AL. Cole has been quite good and is now a +400 second favorite along with Toronto's Kevin Gausman. McClanahan has been great but also has left each of his past two starts with back troubles and is now on the IL. His odds have fallen to +900 with his second-half status up in the air. The Tampa rotation already lost Jeffrey Springs for the year and Drew Rasmussen into at least August.
Valdez was +2000 at BetMGM to win the Cy Young when the season opened. He was down to +260 last week and is now the +200 leader. Yet Valdez has taken only 4% of the best on the prop at the sportsbook, the seventh most.
Valdez was named to the AL All-Star team and could be a candidate to start next Tuesday in Seattle. Houston's Dusty Baker is the AL manager and he might want to reward his own pitcher. Valdez hasn't faced the Mariners this year and is 5-0 with a 1.94 ERA in 51 career innings against them.
Seattle will start likely eventual All-Star and Cy Young candidate George Kirby (7-7, 3.21 ERA). He leads the majors with a 9.56 strikeout-to-walk ratio and is second with 13 quality starts. Kirby hasn't faced Houston this year and allowed two runs over four innings in a no-decision last year against the Astros as a rookie. He most likely will not have to deal with All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve, who was out Wednesday with an oblique injury and may be headed back to the injured list.
With the MLB schedule now having every team play every other club for at least one series, this is Seattle's first visit of the season to Houston. That would have happened much earlier under previous schedules. The M's won two of three at home vs. the Astros from May 5-7. Altuve didn't factor into that series, as he was still recovering from the hand injury he sustained in the World Baseball Classic.
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