The Reds started out 6-1 behind rookie Brandon Williamson, but his last two starts saw the Reds get blown out. It wasn’t all Williamson’s fault but 10-3 and 12-5 losses have shaken up his confidence. But the Reds bats know this too. Help the kid out. And they have since his last start winning four straight games. MacKenzie Gore gave up seven runs in his last start and his last three have gone Over. Over is the top play.

This price is obviously super high but I feel SO much better about getting a 1.5-run lead for the Reds because I simply don't trust their pitching staff at all -- it's why I'm so generally hesitant to back the Reds on the road even though they keep rampaging away from home and essentially costing me money by me not playing them. I'm like, today's X Reds pitcher is probably going to give up 6 runs ... and then he does and Cincinnati wins anyways. No doubt Washington's Mackenzie Gore is the better starting pitcher today, but we don't need Cincy to win.

These two teams have combined to score 12 and 11 runs, respectively, the last two games. This pitching matchup could again lead to plenty of runs on both sides. The Reds will start Brandon Williamson, who has a 5.56 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Not only has he struggled, but the Nationals have a .763 OPS versus left-handed pitchers. Taking the mound for the Nationals will be MacKenzie Gore, who has a 4.75 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP at home this season. I’ll play the over again.

The Reds being underdogs in this spot is insane. The Nationals are 1-13 in their last 14 home games. On the other side, the Reds are 7-1 in their last eight games and 13-1 in their last 14 road games. The Nationals are 2-10 in the last 12 games that McKenzie Gore started. The Reds are 6-3 when Brandon Williamson starts. Love the Reds in this spot.