Jason La Canfora's NFL Week 17 picks: Back the Giants, plus same-game parlay, player props, and more best bets

We've reached the freakshow portion of the season, folks. React accordingly!

We're trying to figure out which coach cares about games that might be fairly meaningless at this point. We're guessing about motivation and philosophy and which young players he might want to see play and which veterans he's going to rest no matter what. And then on the other sideline, if that team actually happens to have something to play for – even if it's just playoff seeding – how quickly will they pull the chute if they get up by three or four scores? And then you're handicapping what amounts to an exhibition game being played in Week 17.

I'm going to try to avoid those kind of games in this space – last night it was unavoidable with only one game on the docket – for obvious reasons. They give me the creeps.

• More Week 17 picks: Model | Pick 'em | Survivor | DFS

Giants -5.5 vs. Colts

The Colts are a total disaster, and if you think a few days of practice is going to polish up what's left of Nick Foles, you're fooling yourself. That team is broken and that season has long been over. This Indianapolis offensive line is about to get torn apart by Dexter Lawrence and Co. Foles having to deal with a barrage of Wink Martindale blitzes sounds like a recipe for another three picks and I can't help but wonder if we see some Sam Ehlinger here. Here's how Foles fared against the blitz last week: 3-8, 0 yards, 0 TDs, two interceptions and a rating of 6.3. New York is fighting for their playoff life and Daniel Jones will protect the football. The Giants rallied to almost beat the Vikings last week; the Colts have been outscored 84-3 in the fourth quarter during their five-game losing streak. The Giants are 11-4 against the spread and I like them to cover at home against a dome team.

Falcons -3 vs. Cardinals

I'm not totally breaking my rules here because both of these teams have nothing to play for. The Falcons are simply playing much better football. I really liked what I saw from Desmond Ridder last week and that was under duress in freezing temperatures against a solid Baltimore team. Arthur Smith will put him in positions to manage the game at home and run the ball down Arizona's throat. The Cardinals going across the country with a lame duck coach to play a physical offense feels like something that could get pretty lopsided to me. Arizona's QB play is worst in the NFL – which is really saying something these days – and Arizona has topped 16 points just once in its last five games. This feels like a strong Under game to me, and there's another aspect of it I love. More on that in a minute.

Steelers at Ravens Under 35

These two teams combined for 30 a few weeks back. They have novice quarterbacks leading offenses that rarely get to the end zone. Both teams can play stout defense. They know each other well. They tend to play rock-fight games against each other even when it was Ben Roethlisberger vs. Lamar Jackson. Now it's Tyler Huntley vs. Kenny Pickett. Neither team has much of anything going on in the red zone. I said last week you'd have to set Ravens vs. Falcons at 28 for me not go Under. Here it's more like 32. The Under is 20-10 between them and the Ravens have gone Under in six of their last seven with an average combined scoring total of 28.9. No one can run on them since Roquan Smith arrived and I don't see them running on Mike Tomlin's defense for 215 yards like the last meeting. The Steelers will turn Huntley over and he won't push the ball downfield. And heck, even Justin Tucker isn't automatic these days. This is Pickett's first road game in Baltimore in primetime. I smell another 16-13-ish outcome.

Bears at Lions Over 52

They combined for 61 earlier this year, and that wasn't in these ideal dome conditions. The Bears defense is horrible and if they seem like they might be less-than-atrocious at the half, just give it a few more possessions. The Lions offense is precise and explosive at home and Jared Goff is the second-highest rated QB in the NFL at home (106.9), leads the NFL with 20 touchdowns thrown at home, and has the best TD:INT in the NFL at home. The Lions average 29 points per game when playing indoors this season, and did I mention the Bears don't play defense? Justin Fields tore up the Lions for four TDs and he seems ready to go for this one. The Bears will do their share and score into the mid-teens at the very least and get us back to 60-some points. The Over is 20-10 with these teams and I see that trend continuing here.

Cardinals Team Total Under 19.5

Has Kliff Kingsbury been fired yet?

Ravens Team Total Under 18.5

Unless Pickett unravels and throws a few pick-sixes, I don't see Baltimore getting to this number. Mark Andrews has gone away, Ravens receivers don't do anything outside of the occasional scramble drill and the red zone offense is totally broken. They have averaged 12.7 points per game over the last seven contests.

Eagles Team Total Over 24.5

The Lane Johnson injury is huge, but the Eagles are loaded at the skill positions and Gardner Minshew will lead them on scoring drive after scoring drive. They won't turn it over four times like they did last week on the road. The Eagles average 30 points per game and with the chance to clinch the one seed in the balance – and in effect create a double-bye if need be – I see them attacking this Saints defense in a multitude of way and pushing the pace. The Eagles have road graded Dennis Allen's unit in the past and I suspect they do it again.

Player Props of the Week

Andy Dalton INT (-109)

Very much in character for Dalton, especially against a talented Eagles defense that can play games in coverage and is loaded with individual talent.  

Jerick McKinnon Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-106)

McKinnon was a matchup nightmare for the Broncos defense in Week 14 and I don't know why Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes wouldn't lean back into that stuff here. He caught seven of nine targets for 112 yards and two TDs.

Aaron Rodgers INT (+110)

I expect plenty of volume in the Packers passing. The average team throws more than 37 times per game against the Vikings, among the highest in the NFL. Rodgers tends to make a mistake or two along the way. He's tossed a pick in three of his last four games and four total in that span. He's got some communication issues with his receivers.

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TD (+126)

Mahomes threw for three scores against Denver a few weeks back and would have had more if not for 3 INTs. That ain't happening again, and the Broncos defense pretty much bailed on the season last week. I'm not buying that Nathaniel Hackett's firing turns anything around here a week after Baker Mayfield picked that unit apart.

Drake London Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

London is becoming a force and a match-up problem. Ridder isn't afraid to throw him open or seek him in traffic. I bet he goes off paying in the dome against a pathetic defense.

Nick Foles Under 209.5 Passing Yards

I'm far from convinced Foles finishes this game.

D'Onta Foreman Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

The Panthers have the run game revved up and this was a very touch matchup for the Buccaneers in the opening meeting. Carolina ran for 173 in that contest, with Foreman getting 118 on just 15 carries. There will be more volume for him and Chuba Hubbard here. That Bucs front has been battered since their first meeting with the Panthers back in Week 7.

Falcons-Cardinals Same Game Parlay (+750)

• Drake London Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
• Cordarrelle Patterson Anytime TD
• Colt McCoy INT

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
  
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
  
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy
  

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.