It's almost time to say bye to the bye.

It's also something to keep an eye on as well moving forward. Tampa used a late bye (Week 13) as a springboard to a Super Bowl run a few years ago and the Rams were bolstered on a Super Bowl run by a Week 11 bye last year. Back in 2018 the Chiefs benefitted from a Week 12 bye and the year before that the Patriots enjoyed a Week 11 bye and took home the Lombardi.

This week the teams on bye aren't going to be competing for a title – the Bears, Colts, Falcons, Packers, Saints and Commanders – and it seems unlikely for any of the clubs with a bye Week 11 or later, though the Dolphins, Seahawks and Bucs were off Week 11 and all could be in the postseason.

In general, it seems a bye in the second half of the season provides a far bigger boost. And from here on out everyone in playing every week.

• More Week 14 picks: Model | Hartstein | Pick 'em | Survivor | DFS

Buccaneers at 49ers Under 37.5

These teams have played 24 football games this season; 17 have gone under. The Buccaneers barely score 18 points per game playing in the pathetic NFC South and now face the best defense in the NFL, at a time when the offensive line is beat up and leaky. Not good. Tom Brady's operating a short week (they played on Monday Night Football) and has to travel this far. Not good. He can't connect on any deep stuff and the 49ers have the best run defense in the league. The Bucs have the worst rushing defense. Brock Purdy now has the weight of a Super Bowl roster on his shoulders -- hardly ideal. The 49ers offense was running hot and cold even with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. Conservative approaches will abound on offense. This has 14-10 written all over it.

Buccaneers Team Total Under 16.5

Tom Brady has thrown seven touchdown passes in the first three quarters of games this season. And this is a four-quarter defense he's facing this weekend.

Ravens at Steelers Under 36.5

These rivalry games tend to be ugly, old-school affairs. Then factor in this isn't Lamar Jackson vs. Ben Roethlisberger, it's Tyler Huntley vs. Kenny Pickett, and, well, hold your nose. Recent Ravens games have featured scores like 13-3 and 10-9… and that was with Jackson in on the action. The Steelers defense has a big problem with elite receivers going deep. Baltimore's receivers are pretty much non-existent and caught 17 balls last week, for 5.5 yards per catch. Huntley is getting rid of the ball quickly, but the ball isn't going that far. Both teams want to run the ball. Both will have difficulty doing so (the Ravens are averaging just 4.01 yards per rush over the last four weeks, 17th in the NFL). Sure, Pickett is protecting the football, but he's not scoring (two passing TDs over the last four games), and Baltimore has been out of ideas in the red zone since Week 4. This feels like 17-14, 16-13 -- something like that.

Vikings at Lions Over 51.5

These two teams combined for 52 when they met earlier this season, and both of these offenses are in a better place now. The Vikings added tight end T.J. Hockenson from the Lions and the Lions now have their full compliment of pieces available in the run game. Jared Goff has been a top-five passer at home and Detroit will carve up the league's worst pass defense on play action and heavy motion – just like Mike bleepin' White and the Jets did last week. But the Lions run the ball like few others and will capitalize in the red zone where New York failed. The Lions have made some strides defensively but this unit gave up 30 points per game for much of the season and the Vikings can stress them all over the field. This is a race to se who can get to 30 points for me.

Broncos Team Total Under 16.5

The Broncos barely score 14 points per game. They are the worst red zone and third down offense and couldn't even get into the red zone against a so-so Ravens defense a week ago. The Chiefs defense has been much improved in the second half of the season. Chris Jones will be a problem for Russell Wilson. The Broncos fans that show up to this will be there to tell the new owners to fire Nathaniel Hackett. Even a backdoor cover situation against a prevent defense doesn't give me much pause. This horrible offense has been remarkably consistent pretty much every week. This is who they are. The Broncos might not break double digits. They didn't last week.

Bengals -5.5 vs. Browns

The Browns have owned Joe Burow. But that ends Sunday. Burrow is the NFL's best passer since Week 2. He is on a mission and he has Ja'Marr Chase back in peak form against a terrible defense. Deshaun Watson is not half as good as Jacoby Brissett right now, and I'll go out on a limb and say the Browns wont get a scoop-and-score, a pick-six and a kickoff return TD all in this game, which they needed to beat the lowly Texans last week. The Bengals defense will stifle a strong Cleveland offense, Watson will turn the ball over multiple times in his first AFC North rivalry game – on the road no less – and the Bengals won't stop hanging points on the Browns once they get going after the Browns drubbed them 32-13 last time out. Cincy's pass protection has been much better since that Week 8 setback. The Bengals are 9-3 ATS this season and 17-3 in their last 20

Jets +10 at Bills

This is just far too many points for a team that has this legit of a defense. The Jets already beat the Bills once, and that was before Mike White took over and upgraded the QB position. Josh Allen really struggled against this defense and the Bills are leaning way into the run game these days and the explosive plays have been limited. Buffalo's red zone efficiency has suffered too. Sauce Gardner can do the job on Stefon Diggs (after an early bomb in the first meeting, Diggs caught four of nine targets for just 51 yards). New York will generate pressure and Allen will be running all over the place, as he was in the meeting. This game smells like an Under to me (it's 16-8 between these teams this season) and I don't see the Jets getting blown out. Give me the points.

Browns at Bengals Same-Game Parlay (+480)

• Bengals -5.5
• Deshaun Watson INT
• Tee Higgins TD

Player Props of the Week

Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+145)

Mike White loves Garrett Wilson. He will get fed. He is facing a beat-up defense. He can win 50-50- balls. And after going 1-for-6 in the red zone last week, they are going to feature their best playmaker in those critical moments.

Jamaal Williams Anytime TD (+102)

All Williams does is score a TD every week. They want to keep giving me plus money on it, I'll keep taking it. Williams ran for two scores against the Vikings in Week 3.

Goff Over 265.5 Passing Yards (-125)

As I mentioned, Ben Johnson, the rising rockstar coordinator of the Lions, has Goff playing great ball. The scheme is a problem and all the motion and play action is creating easy looks for the QB. If this is indeed a race to 30 points, Goff will be up for it.

Josh Allen Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-103)

Allen ran nine times for 86 yards in the first meeting with the Jets. He'll be under pressure and taking off again in this one. Allen could scamper for 20 yards or more at any time. Works for me.

T.J. Hockenson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-103)

Revenge game!

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