Jason La Canfora's NFL Week 10 picks: Back the Cowboys, plus same-game parlay, player props, and more best bets

Please tell me there was a market out there somewhere that had Jeff Saturday being hired as an NFL head coach before Nathaniel Hackett was fired. Has to exist, right?

Nah, seriously, this league can make you crazy if you let it. Never forget that the people running these franchises, by and large, are woefully ill-equipped to actually get the most out of them. The one thing they do maximize is profits. There are no checks and balances at the ownership level (except maybe in Green Bay, where they don't really have an owner) and bats---t crazy stuff can and will happen. And we'll keep coming back for more because football is king.

But damn if it doesn't make you feel like a sucker sometimes.

So, yeah, I am fading the hell out of Jim Irsay's science experiment in Indianapolis, and I see some other strong plays for Week 10 as well:

• More Week 10 picks: Model | Hartstein | Pick 'em | Survivor | DFS

Raiders -6 vs. Colts

Indianapolis does not have an NFL-caliber head coach. In fact, the Colts basically have no coach, and the assistants are appalled that they now report to Jeff Saturday, who didn't even want to be an NFL head coach until owner Jim Irsay begged him to (so he could tank for the highest pick possible to finally solve his quarterback problem). The coaches and players there know it. Propping up Saturday and Irsay -- after the owner essentially quit on their season -- sounds counterintuitive (and frankly sounds like a bizarro offshoot of the "Major League" franchise). The Colts cannot run or throw the ball. It gets worse each week and the Raiders stink too, but they are 2-1 at home and average more than 30 points per game there. I have to fade the Colts here. Playing a game like this on the road with Sam Ehlinger should merit least a 9-point spread.

Titans -2 vs. Broncos

More disrespect for Mike Vrabel's bunch. They have the second-best scoring defense in the NFL over the last six weeks, they just held the Chiefs down, and they host the worst offense in the NFL. The Broncos are struggling to score 15 points per game. The Titans bend but don't break, dominating on third down and tightening up in the red zone; the Broncos are broken on third down and in the red zone. Sure, Denver is coming off a bye, but this will be a very physical game and the Titans front should give their offensive line fits. Tennessee will run the ball and Denver will have trouble doing as much. Russell Wilson still looks pretty cooked. I wanted to play the Under here (13-3 between these teams) but now that it's hit 36.5 I have to pass. Also, Ryan Tannehill could be available, which would actually give the Titans a passing game. But they won't need it to win by a field goal or more Sunday.

Cowboys -4.5 at Packers

If the Packers were going to get off the mat and try to salvage their season, it would have happened at Ford Field last week. If Aaron Rodgers was going to revert to form, it would have happened against the worst defense in the league last week. Add in the Packers' injury woes from that game, and Dallas coming off a bye, and this could get ugly. I am buying the Mike McCarthy revenge angle here; he isn't a special coach but these players really like him and they know how much this W would mean to him. With any luck Tony Pollard will get the chance to march the ball up and down Lambeau Field. Dallas is 19-6 against the spread since the start of 2021. They're 10-2 ATS on the road since then and 9-0 ATS vs. losing teams in that span. They allow fewer than 17 points per game and can toy with a battered Packers OL, while Green Bay averages just 17 per game.

Giants -5 vs. Texans

Lest we forgot while they were on the bye, the Giants are very well-coached team. They don't not beat themselves and have an identity on both sides of the ball. The Texans can run the football some and have a unique expertise in losing football games. Wink Martindale's defense is built on stopping the run and attacking the QB with the blitz. Davis Mills has one win in his career outside the lowly AFC South. The Texans cannot stop the run and they get to deal with a healthy and rested Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones here. The lines continue to reflect the kind of operation the Giants are. New York is 6-2 ATS, and add in the home-field advantage and this is a win by a touchdown or more. Houston is the only team in the NFL without at least two wins.

Bears -3 vs. Lions

Justin Fields is thriving, the Bears are running the ball all over the place and still scoring 30 points with regularity, and the Lions defense is awful despite what Aaron Rodgers looked like against them. Chicago's athletic front will rip Detroit apart. Keep in mind that Detroit allows 30 points per game. The Lions have never won a road game with Dan Campbell (0-11-1) and they average just 14.8 points away from home under him. Chicago's pass defense is legit. They will control the clock, play from ahead and have the Lions defense panting for air by midway through the third quarter. Fields will hit some chunk plays through the air in play action, too.

Seahawks at Buccaneers Under 44.5

Seattle has the better offense right now and is the better team, but my goodness they went from Seattle to Munich to play a football game. That's nuts. It gives me pause that they will be precise. Tampa Bay's offense remains among the toughest watches in the NFL, and if nothing else we know that Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich really want to run the football even if it goes nowhere. Neither team will play with much pace or tempo. These international games tend to be a slog. The Under is 7-2 with the Bucs and the Seahawks defense has morphed into one of the NFL's better units the past four weeks. They are giving up just 16.5 points per game over the last four weeks. Here's Tampa Bay's last five game totals: 29, 49, 24, 38, 36.

Vikings Team Total Under 19.5 vs. Bills

Josh Allen will be a cause to rally this Buffalo defense even more… and their normal standard is plenty high. The atmosphere will be nuts, which won't help the Vikings -- who are used to being under a dome -- with playing outdoors. I see problems arising. Buffalo allows just 14.8 points per game. Minnesota has produced just eight offensive touchdowns in four road games, and they haven't faced a team this good since going to Philadelphia very early in the season. Leslie Frazier will have the Bills defense prepared. These two teams are 11-5 with the Under on the season, and Buffalo has played six straight. 

Browns at Dolphins Same Game Parlay (+440)

• Over 49
• Jaylen Waddle Anytime TD
• Jacoby Brisett Over 225.5 Passing Yards

Player Props of the Week

Sam Ehlinger Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

Gotta fade this passing offense. Ehlinger isn't a starting QB, who doesn't have a real offensive coordinator or head coach. The Raiders have their issues, and if anything I think this kid runs around more than he has been and doesn't throw as much (because that has been disastrous). Maybe someone there watched his college tape?

Jacoby Brissett Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-117)

I see a lot of points being scored in Miami this weekend and as much as the Browns like to run the ball, they like early-down, play-action deep shots, too. They are healthier up front coming off the bye and have multiple downfield threats, and this Dolphins defense has been suspect. Brissett is completing nearly 80% of his passes over his last two outings.

Justin Fields Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-121)

If this number was around 63.5 I'd lay off of it, but I certainly like it still under 60. Fields could make a house call at any time and is facing the worst defense in the NFL. This Bears multi-pronged rushing attack gets smoother each week. There should be no shortage of volume and this team will run a ton regardless of game flow. He has at least eight rushes for at least 60 yards in each of his last four games.

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB

• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks

• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts

• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.