Jason La Canfora's NFL Week 1 picks: Eagles dominate vs. Lions, plus same-game parlay, teaser and more best bets

Jason La Canfora's NFL Week 1 picks: Eagles dominate vs. Lions, plus same-game parlay, teaser and more best bets - SportsLine.com

It's been a long time since I got to weigh in on some best bets. I'm excited to put this glove back on, only in an expanded fashion from year's past as we branch out into more exotics, teasers, props and some alternate lines as well. As I wrote in the Thursday Night Football preview, I try not to go too crazy in the early weeks of the season, despite there being such temptation to go wild with so much inventory finally back on the board. But there are a few of these games that I have been eyeing for a long time and the numbers still look good to me in a number of instances.

More Week 1 picks: Model | Hartstein | Pick 'em | Survivor | Props | DFS

I lean a little bit into favorites in Week 1, for the most part, and I'm staying away from some of the larger spreads (unless teasing it, of course). In general, even in games I wouldn't play, there are some decent teams getting points at home, which in general I would espouse this time of year. So, with that out of the way, here is what I like in Week 1:

Eagles -4 at Lions

The Lions got a lot of hype and attention for "Hard Knocks" but there is a lot of sizzle here and not much steak. The roster is still pretty threadbare, the coaching staff is relatively untested and, frankly, gives me pause with the lack of experience in key spots. This was a horrible matchup for Detroit last year (44-6) and this Eagles team looks much better to me on both sides of the ball. How much has their staff evolved from that beatdown? My guess is not nearly enough.

Losing a key offensive lineman this week is bad news for Detroit. The Lions really struggled against passers outside the pocket in 2021 (hello Jalen Hurts!), allowing seven touchdown passes to one pick; they ranked 22nd in yards per attempt in those situations and 24th in opposing passer rating. We know the Eagles can gut people on the ground in the option game and Detroit was 28th in rushing first downs allowed last year. Hurts attempted the sixth-most of such passes a year ago, and now has a beefed-up receiving group.

If you are with me on this game, and have a little extra cash to spare, Eagles at over 3.5 TDs (+152) looks really good to me.

Dolphins -3.5 vs. Patriots

The Patriots have ample reason for concern here; this was a bad spot for them in years past going to South Florida early in the year (hot and sticky) -- and that was back when they actually had superior talent. No longer. Miami has the better roster. Miami has explosive speed at every skill position spot on offense, and this Pats defense is not particularly twitchy.

Also, rookie Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel will be out to prove a point to Bill Belichick here and make a statement. The Shanahan run game he brings with him is tried and true, and they can gut New England on the outside zone; the Pats were 21st in the NFL against outside zone a year ago. New England allowed 5.15 yards per carry from Week 12-18 a year ago, 30th in the NFL. Matt Judon can't do it all himself and I don't see enough blue chip players on either side of the ball.

I also like Miami Over 27 points here (+116). Miami topped 30 points in three of the final six games a year ago, including putting 33 on New England at the end of the season, and that was before the upgrades to the staff and roster. The Dolphins will get to Mac Jones, too, and create turnovers, especially when the Dolphins get to play with the lead (they will). After being on the wrong side of that 28-3 Patriots comeback win in the Super Bowl, McDaniel will keep rolling up the points.

Same Game Parlay of the Week: Eagles-Lions

Eagles -5.5, Over 46.5, A.J. Brown Anytime TD (+560)

If you are with me on this game having serious potential to get lopsided, then follow me here. I don't mind taking an alternate line of Eagles -5.5, I'll take the Over/Under Down to 46.5 to give me a little more cushion and A.J. Brown, in his Eagles debut, for an anytime touchdown. He is a match-up problem for anyone. He will feature prominently in the game plan and few receivers have the mix of strength, speed, dexterity and body control he possess, which makes him so dangerous in tight spaces as the Eagles move through the red-zone. Brown also has the ability to score on the long ball, and with Detroit having to stack boxes to try to curtail this Eagles rushing attack, I anticipate several explosive plays from this offense.

Money Line of the Week: Jaguars +115

Man I loved this from the jump and this number was much larger a few days ago. There is complete apathy in DC for the start of this Commanders season. Trust me. Ther's no home-field advantage here; the fans only want for the owner to be gone. He spent the offseason on his boat across the Atlantic as Congress attempted to get an audience with him. Chase Young won't play. And this team features an offense led by Carson Wentz and with a coaching staff short on ideas.

This Jaguars defense is better than it is given credit for, and they actually have a fighting chance now with the worst coach in NFL history gone. Doug Pederson knows how to prepare and motivate a team, and he also knows Carson Wentz as well as anyone on the planet. Not good for Wentz.

Trevor Lawrence will finally get solid stewardship; his true NFL career begins now. With Wentz tending to make big blunders in the red zone, I also like Jacksonville to hit on scoring the most TDs in this game (+122).

Teaser of the Week: 49ers -1, Chiefs PK

With so much uncertainty this time of year, what can you really count on? Well, you can count on established coaching staffs to prove quite superior to lesser staffs with so much time to prepare for a Week 1 game. These are two massive coaching imbalances.

Color me a skeptic on Matt Eberflus, and going against Kyle Shanahan in his opener will be a problem. The Bears are making no pretense about trying to compete this year and the sloughing off of top talent on defense will be apparent in the opener. Justin Fields is going to be in deep trouble against this defensive front with that offensive line in front of him.

Andy Reid will dispatch of Kliff Kingsbury as well, and getting this as a pick 'em looks really good to me. The Chiefs will run the ball more this year and flex some different muscles; this defense will be ideal to do just that against. Not enough is being made of the significant upgrades Kansas City made to the defense in the offseason.

Prop of the Week: Najee Harris Over 3.5 receptions (-113)

This Steelers offensive line looks inept. Mitch Trubisky isn't going to be pushing the ball downfield. Harris might be swarmed behind the line of scrimmage when running the ball; I could see this being a big screen game for the Steelers' new option offense. We know Harris is not leaving the field much as a three-down back and fulcrum of this offense.

I'm old enough to remember Harris catching 14 balls on 19 targets against the Bengals last September. Trubisky embraces the check down and if the Bengals defense is as menacing as I expect against this offensive line, he's going to really embrace it here. This was hovering around +106 midweek.

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