Jason La Canfora's NFL playoffs Divisional Round props and same-game parlay: Big day for Saquon Barkley among expert's best bets

My overarching thoughts on the Divisional Round have not changed much from my midweek column.

I fancy the Bengals' chances of bogging their game with Bills down some and playing the kind of stout defense we have seen for the past two seasons now, particularly in the playoffs. I like the Under on the Bills team total of 27.5 at -115. The spread in the Jaguars game has grown to the point where if you are playing it for the game I'd be inclined to take Jacksonville. My preferred play was the Chiefs to win the first half by more than five points, which we broke down on Wednesday. However that number is now at 6, and carries significantly more risk of a push.

In the NFC, I believe the 49ers can put a hurting on the Cowboys and that spread has held steady at 4. I still really like it. And in the NFC, the Giants are still catching 7.5, and I still like them to keep that game close. But at this point in the week the focus is on the prop plays, and there are several that stand out to me from each game.

• More Divisional Round picks: Model | Parlay | DFS | Hartstein

Props

Jerick McKinnon TD (+109)

Not as juicy of a payoff as where it stood midweek, but there's still plenty of value here. Given McKinnon's growing importance in the red zone and nose for the end zone, I am going to put a small amount on him landing the first touchdown in such an important game at +650 as well. He's gone six straight with a touchdown and has nine total in that span.

Isiah Pacheco Over 59.5 Scrimmage Yards (-117)

Pacheco has become a key piece of this offense and will have room to run against these umbrella coverages. From Week 10-16, when Chiefs were making their push for the top seed, he had at least 15 touches and at least 82 scrimmage yards in every contest. Pacheco had 16 touches for 82 yards in the team's first meeting with the Jaguars.

Trevor Lawrence Over 38.5 Passing Attempts (-101)

I believe the Chiefs are going to push the pace and attack early. The Jaguars – prone to falling behind – will have to chase the game and chuck it around. Doug Pederson, an Andy Reid disciple, knows it's going to be hard to win this game by running the football.

Daniel Jones TD (+160)

If you think Jones going to run it upwards of 20 times, as I do, you'll put a little something here given the payoff. He has a knack for explosive runs.

Daniel Jones Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-123)

I wouldn't be shocked if Jones had more than this by halftime, just like last week.

Jalen Hurts INT (+126)

I'm not sure about that shoulder. Hurts was pretty rusty in Week 18 and I'm not sure about Lane Johnson actually being all the way back. Hurts struggles against the blitz and no one blitzes more than the Giants. Whether it's a tipped ball or a sailed throw, I just see at least one getting away.

Saquan Barkley Over 98.5 Scrimmage Yards (-119)

If you think the Giants can keep this close, there's no way that's happening without their best offensive player being featured. Barkley went over 50 through the air and on the ground last week. I expect more carries against this Philadelphia defense – 24th in yards per carry and great against the deep ball – and plenty of screen and check down looks.

Boston Scott TD (+320)

This is has held pretty steady since midweek. Scott has scored a TD in all eight games he's ever played against the Giants (10 TDs total) and I have to respect that.

Gabe Davis Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Davis always shows up big this time of year. The Bengals are short at corner and Stefon Diggs demands special attention. Davis could get double-digit targets and has a flair for the big play.

Josh Allen TD (+145)

I really liked this in their previous matchup, and still like it here. With so many red zone turnovers and bad decisions this season, I see this bruising quarterback taking matters in his own hands and willing his way across the goal line at least once.

Deebo Samuel TD (+115)

Samuel is a yards-after-catch monster and this Cowboys defense gives up a ton of it. The 49ers have creative play calling in the red zone. Christian McCaffrey seems automatic for a score, but that is priced out of the market for me at this point. But I expect the 49ers to roll up a lot of points and Samuel should be a focal point of that.

Dalton Schultz TD (+195)

Schultz has had a multi-TD game in two of his last three. I expect that the Cowboys will be playing catch-up and throwing the ball a lot. It's very hard to run on the 49ers (not that throwing on them is easy).

Cowboys at 49ers Same-Game Parlay (+950)

• Brock Purdy Over 1.5 TD Passes
• Deebo Samuel TD
• George Kittle TD
• 49ers -4

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
  
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
  
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy
  

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.