Jason La Canfora's NFL playoffs Conference Championship Round props and same-game parlays: Big A.J. Brown play among expert's best bets

My thoughts on the Conference Championship games hasn't wavered much from what I shared midweek, but the lines have.

We figured that Chiefs-Bengals spread would dance around based on what Patrick Mahomes looked like this week at practice, for as much as anyone really gets to see anything. And now it's swung back to the home team as the favorite. But I would like the Bengals to be the better team even if Mahomes wasn't hurt, so getting a point is great, and if that gets going in the Bengals' direction I might delve in again.

The Eagles line has held firm, but the 49ers injury report has not. Some 49ers prop totals and values are in flux as well with players like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel at less than 100%. So with that in mind, here are the prop bets I like the most for the NFC and AFC Championship Games.

• More Conference Championship Round picks: Model | Parlay | DFS | Hartstein

49ers at Eagles

Jalen Hurts TD (+123)

It's do or die. Hurts has a nose for the end zone. I see the Eagles leaning into the option game and Hurts keeping the ball against this defense in goal-to-go situations. Heck, maybe even he catches a touchdown in a Philly Special throwback.

A.J. Brown Long Reception Over 25.5 Yards (-123)

This has gone up a smidge during the week, and I'm fine with it. The San Francisco secondary struggles with the deep ball and I don't expect the Eagles to back off taking those shots. I thought about the Over on Hurts' longest completion prop but it's pushing 40 yards, so I'm going to attack it individually through receivers rather than through the quarterback. Brown has seven TDs alone of 25 yards or longer this season.

Christian McCaffrey Under 58.5 Rushing Yards (-129)

I have concerns about McCaffrey's calf situation. I have great respect for the Eagles' rebuilt defensive line with Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh joining the party and Jordan Davis getting healthy. I don't think the Eagles will let the 49ers run the ball and they will do whatever it takes to see if Brock Purdy can win in the air.

Boston Scott TD (+550)

Just a small sprinkle here on a lark. We know about Scott's TD streak vs. the Giants, which paid off again last week. I just have a gut feeling he gets a look or two again in the red zone. The Eagles will throw multiplicity at this defense in the run game and short-yardage passing attack. I think this game could get a little lopsided too – like last week but to a lesser degree – which means more opportunities for him.

Same-Game Parlay (+410)

• Eagles -2.5
• Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Passing TDs
• A.J. Brown Long Reception Over 25.5 Yards
  

Bengals at Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon TD (+160)

The trend was not our friend last week, but don't lose sight of the touchdown blitz that preceded it. McKinnon is a go-to option around the goal line, I expect Mahomes will have some discomfort with his ankle as the game goes on and he'll lean into the short passing game more because of it.

Hayden Hurst TD (+240)

The Chiefs allowed 15 TDs to tight ends this season. Hurst is showing up a lot in Zac Taylor's early-game scripts these days and I suspect he'll find some creases in these zones. He was getting looks against the Chiefs in Week 13 before he got hurt.

Joe Mixon Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-111)

I loved this prop at Over 12.5 last week and I anticipate Mixon gets some volume here as well. The Bengals have had someone run at least 20 times in each of the last two games against the Chiefs, and Samaje Perine went Over 20 for more than 100 yards against Kansas City when Mixon was out in Week 13.

Isiah Pacheco Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (-127)

This feels like a lower-scoring game to me, with both teams running more than you might anticipate given their QBs. Pacheco became a big part of the Kansas City offense in the second half of the season and I see him getting a healthy workload against this Cincinnati defense, which the Chiefs have had some success running against in the past.

Patrick Mahomes Under 286.5 Passing Yards (-129)

Mahomes hasn't come close to hitting this total in his last three games against the Bengals. This shot up six yards between Wednesday night and Thursday night just because he is moving around at practice. The Chiefs are going to have to stay balanced and rely on both the pass and the run to keep their leaky defense off the field against Joe Burrow.

Same-Game Parlay (+800)

• Bengals Moneyline
• Joe Mixon Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts
• Hayden Hurst TD

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