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Jason La Canfora's best Super Bowl 57 props: MVP game from Jalen Hurts among expert's best bets for Eagles vs. Chiefs

NFL insider Jason La Canfora shares his best prop bets for the 2023 Super Bowl, featuring the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs
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I am becoming increasingly convinced that this Super Bowl is going Under.

The Under was all the rage this season, connecting at 55%, and no game went Over in the last two rounds. Many were not particularly close to doing so. With both of these quarterbacks wounded to some degree, the Chiefs perhaps short on receivers and Jalen Hurts, perhaps, not at his most accurate (as he was in the NFC Championship Game), I have talked myself into this being a game where the running backs – far lesser household names than those paid to throw the ball – have a very heavy role in this game.

From a prop standpoint, as I break this game down and try my best to project game flow and strategy, the more I come away thinking neither coach will want to play this at a fast tempo. Each will have a multitude of reasons to try to milk the clock some, and ultimately, this game will be played somewhere around 26-24 or 23-21. The Chiefs need to protect their defense and Mahomes, and this is new terrain for the Eagles roster by and large. Maybe someone gets to 27 or more, and we'll see if this total creeps beyond the 50 where it currently sits. I'm banking on glowing injury reports, and it pushing over 51, at which point I will pounce on the Under.

I still favor the Eagles in this contest – they are the more balanced football team – and believe they can cover the 1.5. I also wouldn't be surprised if we see a fair amount of money coming in on the side of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, so I am not ready to start firing away on the Eagles just yet. 

Here are the props I like the most at this point.

Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-115)

This is probably my favorite play of all. Shop around and you can find it. In close games – and one is expected here – the Eagles default to Hurts taking off, and the Chiefs struggle to contain far lesser running quarterbacks under this figure. Of all mobile QBs to attempt more than two runs against them, all but two have gone over this total, with Trevor Lawrence posting a long of 12 yards in the Divisional Round and Justin Herbert a long of 7 in the regular season. The rest: Kyler Murray – 21, Josh Allen – 16, Malik Willis – 17, Lawrence – 18, Joe Burrow – 16, Russell Wilson – 19, 16 (two games), and Burrow 14 (AFC Championship). If you factor out the Week 18 game against the Giants (Hurts's first back from the shoulder injury) and the ensuing playoff game against them (when the Eagles were up huge in the first half and didn't need to run him), Hurts has a run of 14 yards or more in six of the last eight games; he had a high of 12 in one other and barely ran at all in a 35-10 blowout of the Titans. With the stakes this high, I see ample opportunity for him to take off and get a big gain, especially if the Chiefs blitz.

Hurts Over 10.5 Rushing Attempts (-101)

Okay, maybe I like this one the most. The Eagles played eight one-score games, but let's throw out Week 18 again, because it was clear Hurts running was not in the game plan. In the other seven games, Hurts ran at least 15 times in six of them, and carried the ball 11 times in the other (Week 2 against Minnesota). Again, we think this is going to be a a close game, right? In those seven games Hurts averaged 15.5 carries. So I would also shop around and check out ….

Hurts To Reach 15 or more Carries (+475)

Nose around. It's out there. Excluding the Week 18 exception, he's hit this in five straight one score games.

Hurts Anytime TD (+113)

Hurts gets a ton of volume in the red zone and around the goal line. He has massive core and trunk strength to move the pile and get low with a nose for the end zone. He's hit this in five of the last six games (You guessed it, Week 18 is the outlier).

Hurts to win the MVP (+125)

I'm going to cover my backside here with a smaller wager given how I think this game may go.

Kenneth Gainwell Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Gainwell got a ton of run in recent blowout wins and I don't expect that at all in the Super Bowl. But they have confidence in him. I expect the Eagles to run all day if the Chiefs can't hold up. Here are Gainwell's longest rushes in the last four games in which he got a carry: 17, 35, 11, and 11 yards. Those numbers get us home (or halfway home). The Eagles get chunk yards off his option plays. He's averaging over 5 yards per carry for the season, including the playoffs. He gains positive yards on nearly 90% of his carries and makes people miss. It's not uncommon for lesser players to get a bigger role in the biggest game of them all.

Isiah Pacheco Over 69.5 Scrimmage Yards (-115)

Don't tell anyone, but since Week 10 (including the playoffs) Pacheco has averaged 15 touches and 85 yards per game. Against this defensive Philly front, running the ball and quick passes will be all the rage. And the one deficiency in that Eagles pass defense is covering running backs -- they're just 14th in passer rating to RB targets and 16th in comp %. With Mahomes still a little banged up, I expect a lot of Pacheco in this game.

Pacheco Over 11.5 Rushes (-123)

Since Week 10, Pacheco is averaging 5.02 yards per carry, sixth among all NFL RBs. He is eighth in total rushes in that span. I can't see Andy Reid not trying to probe away at an Eagles run defense that was poor for long stretches this season. The Chiefs were leaning heavy into 12 and 13 personnel with Mahomes banged up in the AFCC (they ran 21 plays with multiple tight ends and 21 with three WRs). Trench warfare is probably in order here.

Jerick McKinnon Longest Reception Over 12.5 Yards (-119)

McKinnon is the go-to guy on screens for Kansas City. If Kadarius Toney is out, I see McKinnon getting considerable looks underneath. In the Chiefs' last 10 one-score games, he has topped number this six times and just missed by half a yard in another. In that span, McKinnon has longest receptions of: 19, 16, 56, 21, 28 and 13 yards. I expect the Chiefs to attack the Eagles' linebackers – not the strength of that unit – with this air back a bunch. McKinnon has averaged 22 routes run in the Chiefs' 12 one-score games, a solid sample to hit this benchmark. Reid has to be careful trusting his tackles to hold off this pass rush. I'm looking at McKinnon Over receiving yards props too, but I'm waiting to see if the number goes up some (22.5) and the price (-127) comes down. He averages 1.4 yards per route, and if he does end up with something in the neighborhood of 30 routes in this game he'll shatter that total.

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Jason LaCanfora

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