Iowa vs. Northwestern Big Ten football odds: Opening total of 29.5 points for neutral-site matchup at Wrigley Field lowest in FBS history

The Chicago Cubs had 24 games with at least 10 runs scored during the 2023 MLB regular season, the franchise's most such games since 1935. The Cubs play their home games at historic Wrigley Field, and the park will host a Big Ten football matchup Saturday between Iowa and "home team" Northwestern. It's quite possible neither offensively challenged team reaches double-digit points with the total opening at just 29.5, the lowest in modern FBS history.

That number is now up to 31, which is a bit unusual because totals generally go down as the week progresses when they're so low, and that could still happen. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts 36 points scored. So far, 62% of the money is on the Over, but 82% of the tickets are on the Under.

When Iowa last took the field, it closed with a total of 31.5 points against Minnesota on Oct. 21 and the Gophers prevailed 12-10. Per KillerSports.com, there have been 21 previous FBS games with a total of 36 points or lower since 2007 and the Under is 15-5-1. Another interesting note for such low-scoring games: The outright winner of a game with a total of 36 or lower in that span has gone 19-0-2 ATS.

Saturday's game has huge implications the weak Big Ten West with these teams, Wisconsin and Nebraska all tied for first at 3-2 in league play. Frankly, it doesn't much matter which school wins the West, as it likely will be routed by Michigan or Ohio State in the conference title game as usual.

Iowa owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Wisconsin and closes the regular season at Nebraska. If the Hawkeyes win Saturday, they should still be at two league losses by the finale -- they host Rutgers and Illinois the next two weeks and should win both games.

Coach Kirk Ferentz already has announced that Hawkeyes offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz (his son) will not return in 2024. The elder Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the FBS. He has had only three offensive coordinators in Ken O'Keefe, Greg Davis and Brian Ferentz.

Interim athletic director Beth Goetz, who supervises Brian because of nepotism laws, made the announcement Monday. This offseason, then-athletic director Gary Barta announced amendments to Brian's contract that included a points-per-game provision stating would need to average 25 points per game during the 2023 season and win at least seven games for his term to last beyond June 30, 2024. The Hawkeyes are 118th in scoring offense (19.5) and last nationally in yards per game (232.4).

Defensively, Iowa has allowed just one touchdown on the ground in 2023, which is tied for the national lead. That unit has allowed fewer than 400 total yards in 22 straight games, the longest active streak in the country. The Hawkeye defense ranks sixth nationally, surrendering 14.5 points per game. Iowa has held its last two opponents without a touchdown.

The last time the Hawkeyes played a Big Ten foe in a baseball stadium was on Nov. 24, 1904, in a Thanksgiving game with Minnesota at Athletic Park in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The Gophers won, 11-0. The last time Iowa played in a baseball stadium was the 2017 Pinstripe Bowl in Yankee Stadium – a 27-20 win over Boston College.

That Northwestern has two Big Ten wins and four overall is a minor miracle given the turmoil of the Pat Fitzgerald firing. The Wildcats have alternated losses and wins over their first eight games and upset Maryland 33-27 in Evanston last Saturday. Starting QB Ben Bryant hasn't played since Sept. 30 due to injury and won't return this week.

Iowa holds a 53-28-3 advantage in the series with five of the past seven decided by a touchdown or less. The Hawkeyes won 33-13 last year. 

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