It's important to preface this by saying that all books have slightly different numbers and that it's sometimes a bit hit-or-miss in researching historic college football odds, but Michigan is potentially the biggest favorite it has ever been at a whopping -51.5 for Saturday's game at the Big House against Hawaii. UM will give J.J. McCarthy his first career start at quarterback.
According to the two databases that I have access to, the previous biggest spread for Michigan was at -45.5 against visiting UMass on Sept. 15, 2012. The Wolverines covered in a 63-13 rout. Again, this doesn't mean that UM was never at least -52 in the years before that, but there's nothing on record – I'm from Michigan and I definitely don't remember a 50-point number. Incidentally, since 2005, favorites of 50 or more points have gone 26-41-1 (39%) against the spread.
Hawaii had more roster turnover from last season to this than any team in the country, with several players transferring out because they couldn't stand former coach Todd Graham and a bunch more transferring in under new coach Timmy Chang, one of the most prolific passers in NCAA history during his days at Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors might be the worst FBS program right now after losing by 53 and 32 points at home to Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky, respectively.
The biggest margin by which Hawaii has been a dog on record is +43.5 at USC on Sept. 1, 2012, and UH covered in a 49-10 loss. In fact, the Rainbow Warriors are 2-0 ATS in their past two as at least a 42-point dog.
Certainly the bigger storyline in Ann Arbor will be Coach Jim Harbaugh giving the former touted recruit McCarthy his first career start at quarterback. Cade McNamara led Michigan to the Big Ten title and College Football Playoff last season and was a solid 9-for-18 for 136 yards and a TD in limited time in last Saturday's 51-7 opening win over Colorado State, but Harbaugh's plan always was for McNamara to start Week 1, McCarthy Week 2, and to then pick his true starter.
McCarthy was 4-for-4 for 30 yards and rushed for a 20-yard score vs. CSU. He is considered to have a higher ceiling than McNamara. After that victory, McNamara sounded rather upset about the situation: "I would definitely say it's pretty unusual. It was kind of a thing that I wasn't expecting. By the end of camp, I thought I had my best camp and put myself in a good position."
Hawaii is in the Mountain West and Michigan has never lost to a current MWC school, going 10-0. It's rather likely that number is 11-0 by late Saturday night.
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