Giants vs. Bills NFL Week 6 odds, trends: Why Tyrod Taylor starting over Daniel Jones could be good for New York

No NFL team wants to play a game without its starting quarterback, but the New York Giants may be in much better shape on Sunday night when they visit Buffalo with backup Tyrod Taylor under center. Usual starter Daniel Jones is one of several Giants dealing with injuries, and Jones was just ruled out as expected. Buffalo is -14.5 on the SportsLine consensus, the biggest spread the of NFL season so far.

This is only the third time since 2007 that the Giants have been at least 14-point dogs. They were in Week 18 last year in Philadelphia, but rested their important players as they were locked into their playoff seeding… and still managed to cover. The other time was Oct. 10, 2019 at New England, which covered in a 35-14 win. New York is 0-7 straight up as at least a 14-point dog dating to 1992 (4-3 ATS).

Frankly, I'm tired writing about Jones' lack of success in primetime games. This will already be the Giants' fourth such outing of 2023. It's somewhat surprising this wasn't flexed out of the Sunday night slot, although there's a limited amount of times that can happen. The Giants lost 40-0 in Week 1 on Sunday night to Dallas, 30-12 on Thursday night at San Francisco in Week 2, and 24-3 at home on Monday night in Week 4.

In total, New York has been outscored 94-15 at night this year. Jones is now 1-12 in his primetime career, the worst record of any QB since the NFL merger (minimum 10 starts). He led his team to 31 points in the second half of Week 2 in Arizona in a huge comeback win and was sacked just once in that half. In all other halves this season, he has led the Giants to 24 points without a touchdown and has been sacked 27 times.

If New York doesn't score a TD in the first half on Sunday, it would become the third team since 1991 to not have a first-half offensive TD in its first six games. Jones is averaging just 5.9 yards per attempt, third-worst in the league. His six picks are tied for second. 

Jones is not expected to play after he suffered a neck injury vs. Miami. He hasn't practiced at all this week, and the veteran Taylor has taken the first-team reps.

The 34-year-old Taylor is 26-25-1 in his career as a starter and was Buffalo's starting QB from 2014-17. He helped snap the team's playoff drought in 2017 – the Bills hadn't made it since 1999.

"I got mad love for Buffalo. Got great memories there," Taylor said after practice Thursday. "Was able to I guess change the culture. … They had some down years in the organization, and I was able to help shift that along with a number of other guys that helped that season."

Taylor last started six games in 2021 with Houston and was 2-4. While not having Jones for a primetime game might not be the worst thing, the Giants have lost their past eight games he has not started and averaged only 9.8 points in that span. Taylor might be under siege Sunday as Buffalo leads the NFL with 21 sacks and the Giants have allowed a league-high 30. Six Giants offensive linemen were listed on the injury report Thursday as either limited participants in practice or unable to practice at all. Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley remains questionable as well. 

The Giants are an NFL-worst 0-5 ATS this year after an NFL-best 13-4 ATS mark last season. Buffalo, which begins life without All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano (lost for the season in Week 5), is 0-3 ATS in its past three as a double-digit favorite.

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