Fantasy Football winners from the 2023 NFL Draft: Jahmyr Gibbs a top-12 Fantasy RB, Chigoziem Okonkwo a priority in the later rounds

Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft wasn't as exciting as a 2022 draft that delivered the A.J. Brown and Marquise Brown trade packages, but it certainly held its fair share of surprises. Jahmyr Gibbs joined Bijan Robinson as the first running backs to be selected with top-12 picks since Saquon Barkley in 2018, and Gibbs' collegiate data suggests that he could pile up PPR points with the Detroit Lions if his selection is indeed a signal that D'Andre Swift will be traded. It was also a bit of a surprise to see four wide receivers go in Round 1, as picks 20-23 all were wideouts. Another surprise came in the form of the Buffalo Bills trading up to make Dalton Kincaid the only Round 1 tight end selection.

Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft also brought several intriguing surprises for Fantasy purposes. Athletic receiver Jonathan Mingo wasn't expected to go until Round 3, but the Panthers grabbed him with the 39th overall selection. He'll pair with rookie quarterback Bryce Young, and could immediately lead Carolina in receiving as a rookie. Another huge surprise came in the form of Seattle using a Round 2 pick on RB Zach Charbonnet. Most people had Kenneth Walker pegged as top-10 Fantasy RB for 2023 after an explosive rookie season, but the addition of a tough runner in Charbonnet complicates things.

All of this change is sure to cause ripples across the Fantasy landscape. Robinson, Gibbs, and Mingo are among the 15 players who saw their value rise the most following the NFL Draft, the other 12 of which are veterans. Among that group, three second-year running backs and three second-year pass-catchers received a vote of confidence as their organization opted to not add talent at their positions. Rookie breakout running backs that lack high draft capital are replaced on a yearly basis -- we saw it with Tyler Allgeier this season, Michael Carter last season, and James Robinson the season before that. Dameon Pierce and Isiah Pacheco were candidates to join that list in 2023, but both escaped the draft with their starting gig still intact. For more detail on those two and all of the winners form the 2023 NFL Draft, read on.

Winners

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Running backs with this type of draft capital get fed touches.

Arthur Smith's Atlanta Falcons were historically run-heavy in 2022, and even though Tyler Allgeier was fantastic as a rookie, they decided to use the eighth overall pick on Bijan Robinson. The Falcons are going to feed the rock to Robinson.

Even though Atlanta's offense was incredibly predictable in 2022, they averaged the third-highest rushing expected points added (EPA) per play. Arthur Smith's systems have ranked top-three in rushing yardage in three of the past four seasons, dating back to his time as Tennessee's offensive coordinator.

The only players I would for sure draft ahead of Robinson at the Fantasy RB position in 2023 are Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler -- he belongs in the next tier with Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Breece Hall. For Dynasty purposes, I'd take Hall over Robinson, but I wouldn't blame anyone who considered him the most valuable Dynasty RB. If Atlanta gets passable QB play and this becomes an above-average offense, Robinson could achieve early-career Todd Gurley levels of production. Expectations were high for Robinson entering the draft, and yet his value undoubtedly skyrocketed after cementing this type of draft capital and landing in one of the league's most efficient rushing offenses.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

I provided some historical context for Jahmyr Gibbs for CBS Sports -- he looks like a potentially really special talent. Bijan Robinson is the only player who I would select ahead of Gibbs in non-Superflex Dynasty rookie drafts. That is nuts -- I believe that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a potentially transcendent talent at the WR position. And yet I would select Gibbs ahead of him after the Lions made him the 12th overall pick in the draft. He's ranked as the RB12 in my season-long rankings for 202, and it has nothing to do with the similarity of our names.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans

Houston's offense should be much better in 2023, and the Texans did not use a single draft pick on a running back. They did add two receivers, two interior offensive lineman, and QB C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 pick. Receivers Nathaniel "Tank" Dell (Round 3 selection) and Xavier Hutchinson (Round 6) were each extremely productive at the collegiate level. Houston's Round 2 selection, Juice Scruggs, could start from Day 1 on what may sneakily be one the NFL's better offensive lines.

Head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik come from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree, and there's plenty of reason for optimism surrounding this suddenly young organization.

Dameon Pierce was electric as a rookie. Among running backs with 100+ attempts, Pierce's avoided tackle rate was the highest. I also measure each running back's efficiency metrics relative to their backfield teammates, and no RB posted a wider discrepancy in 2022 than Pierce. Pierce also posted surprisingly respectable per-route rates as a rookie. The Texans did bring in Devin Singletary, but that being the biggest investment made at the position is a clear W for their exciting Year 2 RB.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

Other than James Robinson -- a rumored cut candidate -- New England has made no effort to replace Damien Harris. Year 2 running backs Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris have some juice, but it would be a surprise to see them work in as anything other than complementary pieces. This sure looks like Rhamondre Stevenson's backfield.

Stevenson was the RB7 in full-PPR scoring in a 2022 New England offense environment that was one of the hardest to watch in recent memory under the direction of Matt Patricia. Stevenson scored only six touchdowns. 14.5% of his PPR production came from touchdowns, which was the second-lowest rate among the top-30 Fantasy RB's.

Stevenson has regression likely to be working in his favor and little competition for touches; it will be no surprise if he ranks as a top-five Fantasy RB in 2023. I currently have him ranked seventh at the position.

Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers

Like several of the RBs mentioned here, Miles Sanders saw his offensive environment become substantially better without adding any significant investments at the RB position. The Panthers added Bryce Young with the first overall pick, followed that up with a potential playmaker in second-round WR Jonathan Mingo, and their Round 4 pick, Chandler Zavala, could start at guard right away. Carolina's offense could look much better in 2023, and new coaches Frank Reich and Duce Staley wanted Sanders at the center of it.

Chuba Hubbard may mix in, but it is also well within the range of outcomes for Sanders to play upwards of 70% of the snaps in a pseudo three-down role. And just by being removed from a Jalen Hurts-led offense, Sanders could see a big boost in targets.

For what it's worth, Bryce Young was 10% more likely to target the RB position than the league average during his time in college.

As we entered the 2023 offseason, I would have suggested that the chances of Sanders leaving the Eagles and still retaining most of his Fantasy value were very low. Philly offers one of the best run-blocking schemes in the NFL and access to significant upside as one of the best offenses and overall teams, and Sanders really didn't face any significant competition for touches.

And yet, Sanders currently sits at the RB17 spot in my updated 2023 season-long rankings. He's in the same tier as Pierce, Najee Harris, and Kenneth Walker. Sanders, Pierce, and Harris command upwards of 70% of the RB snaps but each does have a competent backfield mate. Each player's offense should be better in 2023 but still has plenty of question marks. Walker, on the other hand, plays in an offensive environment that is much more likely to be conducive to Fantasy success. But I think Walker will struggle to consistently reach even a 60% snap rate as I consider Seattle's backfield projection.

I had Sanders ranked as the RB22 prior to the draft, but he's sneaking his way towards the top 15 as I update projections to account for the incoming rookies.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Yes, I know it's boring! We're about to discuss a bunch of young guys, I promise. Miles Sanders and James Conner first. You have to eat vegetables, I'm sorry. Well, if you want to look and feel good, you should really eat vegetables.

And guess what? If you eat vegetables, you can afford to eat more ice cream. If you only eat ice cream, you probably will not look and feel good. But, with the right balance of vegetables and ice cream, I believe in you -- you can look and feel good.

Rosters full of fun high-range-of-outcomes players taste good as you leave the draft, but picks delivering less instant gratification are often the most important. Nobody wants to draft James Conner. He ranked as the RB10 in points per game in 2023. And the Cardinals didn't draft a single RB.

The Cardinals may again be one of the worst offenses in the NFL. I get that Conner's top-five usage metrics aren't going to equate to that type of production. It would be hard for it to not equate to top-20 results, though, and Conner is almost never selected as a top-24 Fantasy RB.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Isiah Pacheco's role in the offense really increased following Kansas City's bye week in Week 8. Across 13 games (including three playoff games) from that point on, Pacheco averaged 11.2 PPR points. That would have ranked him as the RB26 in full PPR and RB22 in half-PPR in 2023.

Pacheco scored only five touchdowns across those 13 games. In Year 2, as long as Pacheco retains the role that Kansas City entrusted him with down the stretch in Year 1, we can reasonably expect that touchdown rate to rise.

The Chiefs drafted a potential starter at offensive tackle with Round 3 selection Wanya Morris, and none of their seven selections went to the RB position. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's fifth-year option was declined, so we appear closer to the end of that failed experiment than ever before. The NFL's best team could again roll with just the duo of Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon at RB in 2023. Under this assumption, Pacheco ranks as the RB22 in my most recent season-long rankings.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rachaad White's rookie season was really discouraging. His collegiate data was extremely exciting, particularly as a pass-catcher. But that data came on a limited sample size, so a healthy amount of skepticism was warranted. And following an underwhelming statistical showing as a rookie, I struggled to sustain the optimism I once held for White.

White drew targets at a higher rate than Leonard Fournette, but the aforementioned veteran averaged more yards per route run and more yards after the catch per reception. As a rusher, White was slightly more efficient (3.7 yards per attempt) than Fournette (3.5), but he had a lower success rate. Among 42 backs with 100+ rush attempts, White's explosive rush rate (the percentage of attempts that gained 10+ yards) ranked 41st. He ranked 38th in avoided tackle rate, an area where he was exceptional in college.

If Tampa Bay would have added a rookie RB, it would have all but put the nail in White's Fantasy coffin. Instead, none of Tampa's eight selections were invested at the RB position, leaving White as the clear lead back for now.

In two games that White saw a snap rate above 60% as a rookie, he averaged 18 rush attempts and 4.5 targets, which resulted in 214 scrimmage yards. He could be an arbitrage version of James Conner as a Fantasy producer through volume if the Buccaneerss don't make any notable additions to the RB room following the draft. And if White makes any significant improvements to his efficiency as he adapts to what he learned in Year 1, he may just sneak into the top-20 at his position for Fantasy purposes.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills

Khalil Shakir balled out in college. The one time that he was allowed to run 20+ routes in a game as a rookie, Shakir finished with a 3-75-1 line. He was asked to step into a larger role with Isaiah McKenzie banged-up during the playoffs, and Shakir turned 30 route-running opportunities (roughly one game's worth of action for a starting WR) into 5 catches for 91 yards on 7 targets.

We didn't get to see him much, but Shakir looked like a playmaker when Buffalo threw him the ball in 2022. The Bills did sign return specialist and short-yardage weapon Deonte Harty to a two-year, $13.5 million deal, and first-round rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid could be utilized in the slot. There's no guarantee that Shakir is the clear-cut third option when Buffalo goes to three-receiver sets. That possibility does remain, though, as the Bills only added a Round 5 perimeter project in Justin Shorter. The window on a Year 2 breakout for Shakir could have easily been slammed shut during the NFL Draft, but it remains open.

Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans

The Titans have a ton of offensive needs, and they used all six of their picks on that side of the ball. Tennessee chose to address blocking over playmaking, which is great news for the existing pass-catchers on the roster. Tennessee added two potential starting offensive line men and one of the best blocking rookie tight ends and waited until Round 7 to add a wide receiver.

Treylon Burks was pretty dope on a per-route basis as a rookie. He joined Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Drake London inside the top 30 in yards per route run vs. man coverage in 2022. That group of youngsters were more efficient with their opportunities vs. man coverage than the likes of Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, and Keenan Allen.

A wide receiver's early-career performance when facing man and press coverage can be an important indicator of future success. Another cool and obscure stat points towards Burks as potentially being great -- he was one of the league's most efficient players when measured relative to his WR teammates.

Overall, Burks ranked 34th in yard per route run rate (1.75) among 98 receivers with 250+ routes run in 2022, in the same vicinity as Christian Kirk (1.79), Chris Godwin (1.77), D.J. Moore (1.75), and Deebo Samuel (1.69). He has every opportunity to build on that in Year 2 with even less target competition than during his rookie season.

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans

One of the few rookies who blew Burks' per-route rates out of the water in 2022 was his teammate, Chigoziem Okonkwo. I contextualized the rookie seasons for Okonkwo, Burks, and every other relevant pass-catcher from the 2022 class -- I highly recommend checking giving that article a read if you are into that sort of thing.

Okonkwo was a target magnet when on the field as a rookie. The Titans were desperately in need of playmaking options, and they seemed to recognize that Oknokwo was their best bet and became intentional in getting the ball in his hands in space. I would have loved to see Tennessee add some sort of field-stretching threat to take defensive attention off of Okonkwo in the middle of the field, but turning a blind eye to the pass-catching group is a near-ideal outcome for the trio of Year 2 pass-catchers in Okonkwo, Burks, and Kyle Philips.

Replacing Austin Hooper with rookie blocking TE Josh Whyle could signal even more work from the slot and perimeter for Okonkwo in Year 2. If Oknonkwo ends up increasing his route participation, he could finish 2023 with one of the highest target shares of any tight end in the NFL. There are only eight tight ends that I would select ahead of Okonkwo for 2023 season-long purposes, and he's ranked as my Dynasty TE5 (find my full Dynasty positional rankings here).

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, New England Patriots

The Patriots were expected to add a WR early in the draft but instead waited until Round 6 to add depth at the position. New England did, however, grab three offensive linemen -- two in Round 4 and another in Round 5 -- and this offense could be much better than the train wreck Matt Patricia engineered in 2022.

This looks like Rhamondre Stevenson's offense, but JuJu Smith-Schuster will likely lead the team in total targets. New England has force-fed Jakobi Meyers targets from the slot (even though he's a much better producer from the perimeter) and appear poised to do something similar with Smith-Schuster in 2023.

Mike Gesicki and Tyquan Thornton are also candidates to step into a Fantasy-relevant role, but both presented troubling per-route data in 2022. I'm not excited to invest in any Patriot not named Rhamondre, but there is some potential value to be had here after the Pats shockingly neglected their need for playmakers during the draft.

Jonathan Mingo, WR, Carolina Panthers

Speaking of playmakers, the Panthers believe that they got one with early Round 2 selection Jonathan Mingo. Carolina had only four picks in addition to the No. 1 overall selection, and they invested two of the top three in help for their new franchise QB.

Mingo joins a Panthers receiver room that includes Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Terrace Marshall, and Laviska Shenault. Marshall and Shenault have struggled to find their footing in the NFL, and both Thielen and Chark have shown signs of decline in recent seasons. In 2022, Thielen ranked 87th among 98 qualified receivers in yard per route run rate. Chark ranked 50th. He was barely more efficient than Josh Reynolds and was markedly less efficient than Kalif Raymond in the same offense.

None of Carolina's existing pass-catching options inspire much excitement. And while Mingo brings his own troubling data to the table (on May 7, I will publish a complete review of the rookie WR class and provide a more detailed look at Mingo's collegiate data), his athleticism and draft capital give him a realistic chance at emerging as the most productive pass-catcher in this Panthers offense. Prior to the draft, I expected that it might take multiple seasons for Mingo to earn a potentially Fantasy-relevant role at the NFL level. After the draft, Mingo ranks fifth among wide receivers in my Dynasty rookie rankings and is worth consideration after the first 40 receivers are off the board in 2023 season-long drafts. Mingo falls into the same range as JuJu Smith-Schuster in my 2023 rankings, but his range of outcomes is much wider.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson got his contract, he got the veteran receiver that he wanted in Odell Beckham Jr., and he got speed to burn in the form of Round 1 selection Zay Flowers. Flowers brings some analytical question marks, but his talent is undeniable when watching him zoom around the field.

The Ravens have flexibility with this receiving corps -- Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman can each work the intermediate area of the field or stretch opposing defenses. This is by far the most talented group of pass-catchers that Jackson has ever had at his disposal. After Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen, Jackson sits in a tier with Justin Fields as discounted threats to finish as the QB1 and top overall scorer in Fantasy.

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has one of the most talented offenses in the NFL and could score a lot of points in 2023. Geno Smith was excellent in 2022 and will have every opportunity to produce in 2023.

Namely, Jaxon Smith-Njigba provides an enormous boost to Smith's projection. Smith-Njigba's collegiate data paints him as a potentially transcendent talent. I already teased Monday's article in reference to Jonathan Mingo, and I'll do it again now -- the more that I dug into the former Buckeye's absurdly efficient 2021, the more convinced I became that he has the potential to set the NFL on fire. I'm not sure how often Seattle will use three-receiver sets, but if we do see an offensive shift to maximize the strength of this team -- a receiving group that very well may be the most talented trio in the NFL -- it could result in another top-five Fantasy QB season for Smith. He's currently being drafted as the QB16.

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