Fantasy Football: What we learned from Week 5, including DeAndre Hopkins' surprising No. 1 status in one metric
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs dug into every game from the fifth week of the NFL season and found several interesting takeaways.
Early each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will provide a data-driven deep-dive into the usage for every team's running backs and pass-catchers. You can find full team-by-team data on snap counts, target share, routes run, red-zone usage and more for every Fantasy relevant running back, wide receiver and tight end.
Below, Gibbs covers the 10 most important storylines from Week 5 to help provide a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Important Week 5 metrics
Week 5 RB snap rate leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2021
88% — Devontae Booker
87% — Alvin Kamara
77% — Derrick Henry
75% — Miles Sanders
73% — D'Andre Swift
72% — Alex Collins, Josh Jacobs, Zack Moss
70% — Aaron Jones
69% — Austin Ekeler
68% — Eli Mitchell
67% — James Robinson, Myles Gaskin
No stat correlates more closely with Fantasy scoring at the RB position than snap rate.
Route involvement leaders at the RB position thru Week 5:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2021
77% — Najee Harris
72% — Alvin Kamara
71% — Darrell Henderson
70% — Ezekiel Elliott
66% — Saquon Barkley (Booker at 76% in Week 5)
65% — Chase Edmonds
62% — D'Andre Swift, Aaron Jones
59% — Mike Davis, James Robinson
A player's route involvement rate simply represents the percentage of the team's total dropbacks on which that player ran a route. So, the running backs listed above all have run a route on at least 59 percent of their team's dropbacks. Running routes is the first step towards drawing targets, which is key to unlocking Fantasy upside at the RB position.
The 30-30 club:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2021
(target share on the left, air yard share on the right)
37.9% — Davante Adams — 45.7%
33.6% — Brandin Cooks — 49.9%
33.1% — Cooper Kupp — 31.6%
32.9% — Deebo Samuel — 34.7%
30.2% — Terry McLaurin — 44.9%
These receivers have shown a unique ability to dominate both the target and air yardage share.
TPRR leaders continued:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2021
25% — Chase Claypool, Robert Woods, Antonio Brown
24% — Tyler Boyd, Hunter Renfrow, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins
23% — AJ Brown, Jakobi Meyers, Corey Davis, Ja'Marr Chase, Courtland Sutton, Marquise Brown, Justin Jefferson, Michael Pittman
Target per route run rate is one of the most important stats available for evaluating pass-catchers in Fantasy. I wrote about it in more detail here, if you are unfamiliar with the stat.
WRs who accounted for the largest share of their team's air yards in Week 5:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2021
76% — DeAndre Hopkins
72% — Davante Adams
61% — Mike Williams, Ja'Marr Chase
48% — Courtland Sutton
47% — Tyler Lockett
42% — Robby Anderson, Marquez Callaway
41% — Terry McLaurin
40% — Justin Jefferson
Without a doubt, the most surprising inclusion on this list is DeAndre Hopkins' 76 percent air yardage share. The target and air yard volume had been way down for Hopkins to start the season, but Kyler Murray was focused on delivering the ball downfield to his top weapon in Week 5.
Target per route run leaders at the TE position through Week 5:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2021
26% — Dalton Schultz
23% — Darren Waller, George Kittle
22% — Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce
21% — Mike Gesicki, Dan Arnold, Zach Ertz, Noah Fant, Kyle Pitts
19% — Hunter Henry
18% — Tyler Conklin
These tight ends are being targeted at the highest rate when allowed to run routes, but that's only part of the equation when evaluating tight ends for Fantasy purposes. Understanding how often each tight end's offense allows them to actually run routes is another important piece of the puzzle.
Route involvement leaders at TE thru Week 5:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2021
94% - Logan Thomas (RSJ at 88% in Week 5)
92% - Darren Waller
87% - Travis Kelce
86% - TJ Hockenson
85% - Mark Andrews
81% - Kyle Pitts
79% - George Kittle
78% - Noah Fant, Tyler Higbee
73% - Cole Kmet
72% - Dawson Knox, Mike Gesicki
Players like Hockenson, Andrews and Pitts haven't needed a massive target per route run rate, because they are running so many routes. This type of route involvement provides exciting upside for those guys if their TPRR rate rises, as we saw on full display with Mark Andrews' big Week 5 performance.
And here is the updated season-long leaderboard in first down target per route run rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2021
43% — Davante Adams
39% — AJ Brown
37% — Deebo Samuel
31% — Diontae Johnson, Mike Williams, Calvin Ridley
30% — Cooper Kupp, Terry McLaurin
28% — Stefon Diggs, Mark Andrews, CeeDee Lamb
Dating back to 2017, targets that come on first down are worth 18 percent more PPR points than targets that came on second, third or fourth down. In Week 5, we saw the Rams go out of their way to feed Robert Woods the ball. Bobby Trees had more first down targets in Week 5 than in the first four games of the season combined.
So which RB saw a surprising role in Week 5? And which top tight end could be impacted by a breakthrough rookie campaign? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' What We Learned from Week 5 feature, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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