Fantasy Football Week 9: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including Jamison Crowder positioned well as a fill-in
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs provides one key thing to know about every team playing in Week 9.
loading...
loading...
If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.
Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 9 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.
One player Gibbs is especially high on: Washington's fill-in slot receiver Jamison Crowder. Gibbs expects Crowder to pile up targets against a blitz-heavy Patriots scheme that will do its best to eliminate Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson from the gameplan on the perimeter. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.
So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 9? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses.
If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.
Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 9.
Over/Under -- 37 points (opened at 41.5, meaning bettors have hit the Under this week)
Falcons (20.25 points) -- The Minnesota Vikings are the only defense that blitzes more than half of the time. Both Kyle Pitts (27.2%) and Drake London (26.7%) have high target per route run rates vs. the blitz since the start of 2022. For what it's worth, Pitts has been targeted on five of 16 routes vs. the blitz (31.3%) without London on the field since the start of 2022. On 48 routes (blitz or no blitz) run without London since the start of 2022, Pitts has an elite 29.2% TPRR rate.
The move to Taylor Heinecke stands to potentially result in more dropbacks, and playing without London positions Pitts for a huge game. I love him as a DFS tournament play if the field is set on playing Trey McBride at a similar price point.
Vikings (16.75 points) -- Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are the only Vikings you should even be considering using in Fantasy at this point, so we'll focus on their matchups.
The Falcons defense uses two-high safety/middle field open looks at the fourth-highest rate (61%) and have allowed the ninth-most Fantasy points per dropback on those plays.
Hockenson has a team-high 29% target per route run rate vs. two-high looks, but more noteworthy to me was actually Addison's 26% rate. Typically, wide receivers see their TPRR drop a bit vs. two-high looks, especially perimeter wide outs. Addison's TPRR on the year is 19.3%. 26% is way up! Also noteworthy -- Addison has a 3.04 yard per route run rate vs. two-high, compared to 1.65 for Hockenson.
Interestingly, Atlanta is one of the few defenses whose wide receiver target rate increases when using two-high looks defensively. Overall, the Falcons have the fourth-lowest percentage of opponent targets going to perimeter wide receivers (38%) in 2023. That rate rises to 41% (13th-highest) in two-high safety defensive sets. That may seem like a small boost -- and it is -- but, perimeter target rates are way down across the board vs. two-high looks, while slot, running back, and in-line tight end target rates all rise.
Initially, I was super down on Addison in this spot. The Falcons' cornerback play has been great, Atlanta uses a ton of press coverage, and the Vikings are only implied for 16.75 points. My initial ranking of Addison was WR41, behind Demario Douglas. I've since bumped him up to WR36, in the same range as Rashee Rice, Christian Watson, Tank Dell, and Marquise Brown. Facing Atlanta with a Round 5 rookie is not a good spot to be in. But, if you squint hard enough, this is at least an interesting matchup for Addison, who has eaten over the middle of the field. I feel like his play warrants a squint at this point. I want to keep rolling with the stud rookie receiver if it makes any sense to continue placing our faith in him.
How I'm approaching this game:
The Vikings have been solid against the run, although they are worse vs. zone rushing than man/gap concepts. This feels like a decent spot for Bijan Robinson (who feels wildly underpriced on DraftKings), especially if the Vikings offense can't move the ball and continues to give it back to the Atlanta offense. My interest in Atlanta centers around Robinson and Pitts, and London will also be interesting if he suits up. This may just end up a disgusting game that we would have been best to stay away from, but that's sort of how I feel about the entire Week 9 slate. So, here we are, back for more. Thanks, Arthur Smith!
No Vikings in DFS for me for the time being. Good luck if you have to start Addison, Hockenson, or Alexander Mattison. I would not consider starting anyone else from Minnesota.
Over/Under -- 43 points (opened at 46.5)
Ravens (24.5 points) -- Seattle uses Cover-3 at the fourth-highest rate (45%), and only Jared Goff has a higher passer rating vs. Cover-3 than Lamar Jackson this season.
Target per route run rate vs. Cover-3:
26% -- Zay Flowers
19% -- Mark Andrews
15% -- Odell Beckham Jr.
Yard per route run rate vs. Cover-3:
3.03 -- Zay Flowers
1.78 -- Mark Andrews
1.58 -- Odell Beckham Jr.
Seahawks (18.5 points) -- I think of the Ravens as a man-heavy coverage scheme, but they've really backed off of that lately. Baltimore used man coverage 40% of the time through the first three games, but only 20% of the time since then. Their blitz rate was 30% through the first three games but is only 18% since then. On the year, Baltimore ranks 28th in blitz rate (23%).
Initially, I read this as a potentially positive schematic matchup for DK Metcalf, who is targeted at a much higher rate vs. the blitz and vs. man coverage. When not blitzed, the target per route run rates for Metcalf (22.6%) and Tyler Lockett (22.0%) are nearly identical, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's rate (19.7%) is just behind theirs. When facing zone, the target per route run rates shake out as follows -- Lockett (22.5%), Smith-Njigba (20.6%), Metcalf (19.3%).
How I'm approaching this game:
Metcalf is coming off of a 14-target game and is a clear positive regression candidate, but I've moved him down in my rankings after digging into this matchup more. Seattle's only implied for 18.5 points against Baltimore's defense, and you're probably better off avoiding the Seahawks entirely if you can. I have Metcalf ranked as the WR26, Lockett as the WR32, and Smith-Njigba as the WR48.
Further complicating things, I'm not even sure that we can trust Kenneth Walker's role going forward.
Predictably, Pete Carroll is falling in love with Zach Charbonnet.
On the Baltimore side of things, I'm going back to Flowers as a priority DFS play. I know it's been frustrating. He's way too cheap, and all of the underlying data points towards better production.
Over/Under -- 41.5 points (opened at 44)
Saints (25 points) -- Derek Carr is a wild boy and has an average depth of target of 12.3 yards when pressured, the highest in the league. His 7.4-yard aDOT when not pressured is just above average (7.0). The Bears rank 31st in pressure rate (28%).
When Carr has been pressured, Alvin Kamara has a 24% target per route run rate. That rises to a massive 39% when Carr has not been pressured. On paper, this sets up as a potentially huge receiving game for Kamara against a Bears defense that has been tough to attack on the ground but very inviting to opposing pass-catchers out of the backfield.
It might not matter, though, as the Saints are massive favorites and Chicago's offense could crumble in this spot. One thing is clear -- it's unlikely that we'll see Carr uncork many deep passes in this matchup.
Bears (16.5 points) -- The Saints have the lowest missed tackle rate in the NFL and rank fifth in defensive rushing success rate. I don't want anything to do with Chicago's three-man backfield. DJ Moore is a different story.
So far, 75.4% of opponent targets have been first-read targets against the Saints, the fourth-highest rate. New Orleans uses press coverage at the third-highest rate (76%) and man coverage at the sixth-highest rate (33%). The Saints' 0.38 Fantasy points allowed per dropback when in man coverage ranks first in the NFL, though -- this has been one of the stingiest defenses in football.
Is it a good matchup for Moore? No. But, his per-route rates do rise against man and press coverage. He's playing at such a high level that he could win in any man-to-man matchup, and his target rate is up with Tyson Bagent at QB.
How I'm approaching this game:
Kamara makes sense as a DFS building block, but there's a high probability of an inefficient rushing performance, and I just don't know how many dropbacks the Saints are going to need to produce in this spot. It wouldn't surprise me if this is a gross game overall and we see Kendre Miller icing the clock in a blowout win. At his salary, I'd prefer Kamara to be in a better game environment. He's the New Orleans offensive centerpiece and the Saints have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate, so I won't blame you for locking him into cash game lineups. I'm intrigued by the idea of fading a highly-rostered Kamara and avoiding this game entirely.
Chris Olave is super cheap and will likely have nobody clicking his name in DFS. Although the schematic matchup isn't ideal, this could be a get-right game for him. He's an interesting name to consider for tournament play.
If you need an upside shot, Moore is worth considering. I won't have any Bears for DFS, but in managed leagues, I'd start Moore over Metcalf, Puka Nacua, and Jakobi Meyers.
Over/Under -- 37.5 points (opened at 42)
Browns (23 points) -- The Cardinals rank 32nd in blitz rate (18%) and 29th in pressure rate (29%). Deshaun Watson has been much worse when blitzed/pressured.
This is a potential eruption spot for Amari Cooper. I wrote about him in more detail in Beyond the Boxscore: Week 9.
Cardinals (15 points) -- Cleveland's man-heavy coverage scheme has resulted in a bottom-10 opponent target share to both the in-line tight end and slot positions. Trey McBride spent 48% of his snaps aligned in-line and 42% in the slot in Week 8. The Browns present a problematic matchup as a whole, and the specific tendencies of their coverage scheme makes things look even worse for McBride.
How I'm approaching this game:
I'm somewhat interested in Cooper as an off-the-wall tournament DFS play, but the Browns may not need to pass much if Clayton Tune is again a disaster. You're almost certainly better off avoiding this game entirely.
Over/Under -- 40 points (opened at 40)
Texans (21.25 points) -- The Buccaneers rank third in blitz rate but 28th in pressure rate. C.J. Stroud ranks fourth in passer rating vs. the blitz but 24th vs. pressure.
Target per route run rate vs. the blitz:
30.6% -- Tank Dell
26.5% -- Nico Collins
21.1% -- Dalton Schultz
Yard per route run rate vs. the blitz:
4.22 -- Tank Dell
2.76 -- Nico Collins
1.76 -- Dalton Schultz
Buccaneers (18.75 points) -- The Texans are one of five teams to use zone coverage at an 80% rate. In the past, Chris Godwin would see a boost vs. a zone-heavy scheme, but he's not being used in the same short-yardage slot role as he was with Tom Brady at QB.
When facing zone coverage, Baker Mayfield has fed a 25.4% TPRR rate to Mike Evans, compared to a 22.8% rate for Godwin. Evans has run 16 fewer routes than Godwin vs. zone, but he has 454 receiving yards and three touchdowns to Godwin's 361 scoreless yards vs. zone.
How I'm approaching this game:
I have both Tampa receivers ranked inside the top 24 -- Evans at WR10 and Godwin at WR21. Outside of those two, I don't want much exposure to this game.
The idea of DFS stacks with Stroud, one or both of his wide receivers, and one of the Tampa Bay receivers is interesting, but a 40-point over/under has me tempering expectations.
Dameon Pierce is going to miss this game, leaving Devin Singletary an opportunity to fill a prominent role. The Buccaneers have the seventh-lowest situation-neutral opponent rush rate, meaning that teams attack this defense through the air when in close games. Tampa's missed tackle rate is third-lowest, and they're also top-five in defensive rushing EPA. This is a brutal matchup on the ground.
Over/Under -- 40.5 points (opened at 39)
Patriots (22 points) -- According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite's newest tool, the Commanders have the fifth-highest two-high safety/middle field open rate (58%) and have allowed a league high in Fantasy points per dropback when leaving the middle of the field open.
Some quarterbacks are confident in pushing the ball over the middle of the field, while some, like Russell Wilson, notoriously struggle to read the middle of the field. Mac Jones, unfortunately, seems to be sliding into that group of quarterbacks in a discouraging third season. Jones has a league-low completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) vs. two-high looks; only Bryce Young has a lowed yard per attempt rate. Jones has shrunk his aDOT vs. two-high looks, with Rhamondre Stevenson (31% target per route run rate), Ezekiel Elliott (29%), and Demario Douglas (26%) being his most-targeted players on a per-route basis.
I'd expect Douglas to be peppered with short-yardage targets in this spot.
Commanders (18.5 points) -- The Patriots rank fifth in blitz rate but are only 30th in sack rate. Sam Howell's most-targeted receiver when bltized is Curtis Samuel, but he won't have his trusty slot weapon in Week 9.
Jamison Crowder ranks fourth in PFF receiving grade over the past month. Crowder has run 28 routes, on which he's drawn nine targets (32.1%), caught all of them, and produced 116 yards and a touchdown.
How I'm approaching this game:
The Commanders are road dogs, and Brian Robinson is probably the most game script sensitive RB in the league. He's a risky bet that you should only place if desperate.
Both Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson have struggled to produce against press coverage, and I'm a bit hesitant to use them in this spot. Your best bet is probably to avoid Washington, but the receivers can be used if needed and Howell is a fringe top-15 Fantasy QB on a weak week for the position.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Douglas are both intriguing underpriced DFS options. I could also see Mike Gesicki emerging as a deep threat against a Commanders defense that has been gashed for explosive plays in the pass game, but his Week 8 route participation was way too low to recommend using him.
Over/Under -- 38.5 points (opened at 41.5)
Packers (20.75 points) -- The Rams are the only defense that uses both Cover-4 and Cover-6 at least 20% of the time. Jordan Love has a 36.4 passer rating on 46 dropbacks vs. those coverage types, ranking 38th of 39 qualifiers.
Rams (17.75 points) -- As you'll see in this week's Beyond the Boxscore, this is not an exciting spot for the Rams passing game pieces.
How I'm approaching this game:
I'm not approaching it all. I want nothing to do with this game.
Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 42.5)
Panthers (21 points) -- Bryce Young has completed only 39.4% of his passes when pressured; only Jimmy Garoppolo has a lower rate. The Colts rank 30th in both pressure (29%) and 30th in blitz rate (21%).
When not been pressured, Young has fed a 32% target per route run rate to Adam Thielen. Also interesting, Jonathan Mingo has a 22% TPRR and 1.32 YPRR when Young hasn't been pressured, compared to abysmal rates of 3.9% and 0.29 when Young has been pressured. Mingo has run 77 routes when Young has been pressured and drawn all of three targets on those routes.
Colts (23.5 points) -- The Panthers have the highest opponent rush rate (50%), and even rank sixth (46%) in neutral situations. The way to attack this defense is on the ground. Carolina is last in rushing EPA by a wide margin. They have the fourth-highest missed tackle rate on rushing attempts.
When the Colts do attack through the air, Carolina's defensive tendencies would seem to benefit Michael Pittman more than Josh Downs. The only team that uses man coverage less than Carolina is Indianapolis, and Downs has been making moves against man coverage as a rookie. Pittman has the highest target rate vs. zone coverage, and the more specific you get with how the Panthers play defense, the more things lean towards Pittman. Carolina is one of six defenses that offers single-high looks over 60% of the time. Pittman has a 35% first-read target rate vs. single-high looks, compared to 15% for Downs.
Downs is absolutely talented enough to win in any matchup, especially a soft one against Carolina. Pittman is set up better on paper, though.
How I'm approaching this game:
Jonathan Taylor (RB8) and Zack Moss (RB21) are both startable options. And for DFS, Taylor is a near lock at his DraftKings price tag.
I like Bryce Young as a salary-saving option for DFS purposes, and you can of course stack him up with Thielen. If you're a glutton for punishment, you could consider stacking him with Mingo.
Over/Under -- 46 points (opened at 47)
Eagles (24.5 points) -- The Cowboys rank seventh in blitz rate (36%) and first in pressure rate (45%). Jalen Hurts has improved vs. pressure in every year as a starter and currently ranks fifth in passer rating when pressured in 2023. His numbers vs. the blitz don't tell as encouraging of a story, he's been right around league average when blitzed.
DeVonta Smith has more routes run (115 to 106) than A.J. Brown when Hurts has been blitzed, and yet Brown has produced 375 receiving yards on 39 targets vs. the blitz to Smith's 187 on 16 targets. Smith actually out-targeted Brown vs. the blitz in 2022, but Hurts has treated Brown like his clear-cut unquestioned WR1 in 2023. That is evidenced in the massive differences between their target per route run rates vs. the blitz.
Philly's 2023 target per route run rate when blitzed:
Brown (36.8%)
Dallas Goedert (20%)
Smith (13.9%)
Cowboys (21.5 points) -- Philadelphia has the second-highest situation-neutral opponent pass rate (65%). Philadelphia has allowed only 65.5 rushing yards per game, the next-lowest is 76.8. This doesn't feel like the spot where Tony Pollard's positive regression comes. It is coming though, right?
This year, 77% of Philadelphia's opponent targets have been first-read targets, the second-highest rate. The Eagles also rank seventh in single-high safety looks and have the sixth-highest Fantasy points per dropback allowed when using those sets. This matchup sets up perfectly for CeeDee Lamb.
How I'm approaching this game:
Dallas has not been an easy team to run on -- far from it. But, I did want to quickly note that they've allowed 4.5 yards per rush vs. zone attempts, up from a 3.6-yard average against man/gap concept runs. The Fantasy Points Data Suite lists Dallas as having the league's highest success rate allowed on zone rush attempts. Notably, 73% of D'Andre Swift's rushes have been zone-schemed. Swift is interesting as an off-the-wall tournament play to get leverage off of the expectedly popular Hurts-Brown stacks.
Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy remembered that this offense functions at its best when running through its best player in Week 8, and the result was a whopping 44 DraftKings points for Lamb. In a perfect follow-up matchup, targets should be funneled his way again in Week 9. Stacking Lamb with A.J. Brown is price-prohibitive, but it absolutely may be worth it. Both receivers could post 40+ point games in this spot.
Pollard is so cheap on FanDuel. If this game shoots out, he could finally find the end zone. The matchup on the ground is brutal, but he's tough to just outright fade at that price tag in a potential shootout.
Over/Under -- 37 points (opened at 39.5)
Raiders (19.25 points) -- In Aidan O'Connell's only other start, the rookie fed 13 targets (32.5% TPRR) to Davante Adams and 11 targets to Josh Jacobs. Jacobs led the team with 81 receiving yards. Jakobi Meyers caught three of six targets for 42 yards and a touchdown.
Both Adams and Meyers stand to benefit from New York's blitz-heavy defense -- Adams has a 32% TPRR vs. the blitz and Meyers' rate sits at 28%.
The matchup sets up well on the ground for Jacobs, too. The Giants have allowed the third-highest yards per attempt on man/gap rushes, which is where 59% of Jacobs' attempts have come. I expect the offense to funnel through Jacobs again with O'Connell under center.
Giants (17.75 points) -- This may be a quick game, as New York's offense also should funnel touches to the ground game. The Raiders are one of just three teams with a negative expected points added when opponents run the ball. Jahmyr Gibbs totaled 189 yards and a score against the Raiders in Week 8. Prior to that, we saw D'Onta Foreman rumble for 33 DraftKings points, and the week before that, Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott combined for 29.9 points.
How I'm approaching this game:
Barkley is a super solid cash game RB. Alvin Kamara's implied team total in New Orleans is significantly higher, but the matchup is much more inviting for Barkley. It's a tough decision between the two, I do lean slightly towards Barkley.
Any of the top three playmakers for the Raiders are viable DFS tournament plays.
Over/Under -- 49.5 points (opened at 46.5)
Bengals (25.75 points) -- The Bills defense uses two-high/middle open schemes 60.7% of the time, according to the Fantasy Points Data Suite's Coverage Matrix. Only the Chiefs have a higher rate.
Check out Joe Burrow's split.
Passer rating:
27th -- Single-high
13th -- Two-high
CPOE:
32nd -- Single-high
9th -- Two-high
Burrow has been much better vs. two-high looks and has fed Ja'Marr Chase against defenses like this. Chase has a 30% target per route run rate vs. two-high, compared to just 19% for Tee Higgins and 15% for Tyler Boyd.
Bills (23.75 points) -- Dalton Kincaid's opportunity increased without Dawson Knox, but it was actually Gabe Davis who saw the most notable Week 8 role change.
The second most-notable role change belonged to Khalil Shakir. Offseason acquisition Deonte Harty worked ahead of Shakir during preseason and Week 1 action, but Shakir surpassed him as the year progressed and was a near full-time player in Week 8.
Lastly, I want to hit on the ground game. This is a potential eruption spot for James Cook, who may be running with even more fire after Buffalo signaled once again their lack of trust in him by signing Leonard Fournette.
The Bengals have the fifth-highest missed tackle rate, a league-high opponent explosive rush rate, the second-highest yards before contact per rush, and the second-highest yards per rush on man/gap attempts. All of those factors directly imply an accentuation of Cook's strengths in this spot.
How I'm approaching this game:
I'm concerned about Cook's role in the long-term, but he's a near must-start in Week 9. I prefer him to Kenneth Walker, and it's a toss-up between Cook, Joe Mixon, and Tony Pollard.
Kincaid is starting for me unless I have Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Gabe Davis (WR21) and Tee Higgins (WR27) are fringe WR2's on a rough week for the WR position, and you could do a lot worse than Shakir (WR44).
Over/Under -- 40 points (opened at 43)
Jets (18.5 points) -- The Chargers have the third-highest situation-neutral opponent pass rate (64%). A running back hasn't topped 60 rushing yards against L.A. since Week 3, and no RB has topped 100 yards on the ground against the Chargers.
L.A. ranks eighth in press coverage use, and Garrett Wilson is always worth considering when facing an aggressive press coverage scheme. He should also benefit from the likelihood of playing behind against a pass funnel defense.
Chargers (21.5 points) -- The Jets only blitz 20% of the time (31st) but rank third in pressure rate (43%). Justin Herbert has struggled a bit vs. pressure. He ranks third in passer rating when not pressured but is 17th when under pressure. His aDOT goes way up when pressured. Keenan Allen has a 32% TPRR when Herbert has been kept clean, which drops to 17% when his QB is pressured.
How I'm approaching this game:
Wilson is a borderline top-10 Fantasy WR in Week 9, it's that bad at the position.
I don't like the matchup for Breece Hall, but he's playing too well to not start.
On the Chargers side of the ball, Allen, Herbert, and Ekeler have to be locked into lineups. I really don't like this matchup for them at all, though. Only 58% of New York's opponent targets have been first-read targets, that's by far the lowest rate. 62% is the next-lowest rate and only 12 teams have a rate below 70%. Instead, teams have funneled targets to the RB position. The Jets have a 27% RB target rate, the next-highest rate is down at 22%.
Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.