Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 9 Lineup Advice from proven expert
Not sure who to start in Week 9? Jacob Gibbs gave lineup advice on how to handle some of the more complicated Week 9 start/sit decisions.
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Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.
I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these columns with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!
I do my best to create space to answer lineup advice questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season. I can't get to every question, though, so I hope that these tiers and comparisons help you feel more confident in your start/sit decisions. Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions.
One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 9: Bryce Young. The No. 1 pick has had a rough start to his season, but Gibbs was encouraged by Young's showing in Carolina's Week 8 game. Gibbs is also all in on a veteran receiver! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.
So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 9? And which pass-catchers can you trust? Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly lineup advice, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
In Diontae Johnson's first game back, we saw George Pickens remain installed in the WR1 role that he filled during Johnson's absence. Johnson only played two-thirds of the snaps in that game and registered a 26% target share and 29% air yardage share. In Week 8, he ran a route on every dropback and recorded a 35% target share and 53% air yardage share.
With Pickens reverting back to a clear-out role and Pat Freiermuth sidelined, Johnson was left with almost no target competition.
Even as part of a disgusting offensive environment in which Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky combined for only 211 passing yards, Johnson was able to finish as the Fantasy WR20 in a week in which no one was on bye. I have no idea why his expert consensus ranking for Week 9 sits at WR26. I have Johnson ranked as the WR16 for Week 9.
The offense should perform better in Week 9. Their implied point total (19.5) is nearly twice as high as the point total that Pittsburgh posted in Week 8. The way to beat Tennessee's defense has been and remains attacking the secondary, and the recent trade sending start safety Kevin Byard away only exacerbates Tennessee's weakness against the pass.
I'd start Johnson ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Nico Collins, and Michael Pittman without a second thought. I also have him ranked ahead of Chris Olave, but I would lean towards Olave in scenarios where I need to take a risk on more hypothetical upside. You could also consider starting Johnson over DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers, or Garrett Wilson -- they're all in the same tier, in my opinion.
The results have certainly been disappointing for Amari Cooper, but his underlying usage data paint him as one of the clearest alpha WR1s in the NFL. If Cleveland's offense wasn't such a mess this year, Cooper would likely be having a huge Fantasy season.
In Week 9, the Browns have a 23-point implied team total against one of the most inviting defenses in the NFL. Arizona's young secondary is one that we've been attacking in Fantasy with wide receivers all season long, and Cooper is at the front of the line for a get-right game. Cooper has finished outside of the top 30 at the WR position in all but two games, so starting him is absolutely a risk, even against the Cardinals.
When compared to players with similar week-to-week floor concerns, such as Nico Collins, DJ Moore, or Tee Higgins, Cooper stands out as clearly preferable in his Week 9 matchup. I also have him ranked ahead of Chris Godwin, Gabe Davis (who you might think belongs in the first group, but check out his Week 8 usage change), Josh Downs, and Puka Nacua (assuming Matthew Stafford sits). If you prefer the "safety" that these players bring, I'd be fine starting them over Cooper.
The Rams have a 17.5-point implied team total for Week 9. The only teams that are lower are the Titans, Bears, Vikings, and Cardinals. It looks as if Brett Rypien will be under center, and for what it's worth, Rypien fed five of 10 targets to Cooper Kupp last week. Only one went Nacua's way.
On top of that, the Rams face a Packers defense that invites opponents to run the ball. Green Bay has the second-lowest situation-neutral (score within six points) opponent pass rate (49%) after posting the fourth-lowest (51%) in 2022. Teams choose to attack this defense on the ground. The top PPR performance by a WR against Green Bay's defense is 21.4 points, and that's the only 20+ point performance. There are a lot of receivers I'm starting over Nacua if Stafford sits. Be sure to check back with my updated Week 9 rankings as we get closer to Sunday. Nacua may end up outside of the top 30 at the WR position.
We saw Carolina go to a more pass-heavy approach with Chuba Hubbard dominating the backfield snaps and -- perhaps more importantly -- with new play-caller Thomas Brown designing his first NFL gameplan.
Young has improved as his rookie campaign has progressed, and he draws a favorable Week 9 matchup against Indianapolis' soft zone coverages. Specifically, the Colts use Cover-3 more than any defense in the NFL. Cover-3 has been by far the easiest zone coverage scheme for Young to pick apart. The rookie ranks eighth in passer rating vs. Cover-3. He should also benefit from more clean pockets. Young ranks second-to-last in passer rating when pressured, but fortunately, Indy rank 30th in pressure rate.
I have Young ranked as QB12 for Week 9, ahead of Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, Sam Howell, and Geno Smith.
Those were the player-specific situations that stood out to me as worth discussing in detail this week. Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.
There are only 12 quarterbacks that I want to start in Week 9, which is the lowest that number has been all year. It makes sense, after we lost Kirk Cousins and (probably) Matthew Stafford from the player pool. At least Daniel Jones is back!
C.J. Stroud (QB10), Gardner Minshew (QB11), and Bryce Young (QB12) mark the cut-off point for players that I want to start at QB, but the tier of potential starters that lies just beyond that cut-off point is a long one. I don't feel that much hesitation to roll with options such as Will Levis (QB18), Mac Jones (QB19), Zach Wilson (QB20), or Kenny Pickett (QB21) if in a pinch.
This week's "no questions asked" starters include Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa. Beyond that, here's how I am categorizing the position this week:
Group 1: Quarterbacks with question marks but upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points
Tier 1 -- Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott
Tier 2 -- C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, Sam Howell
Tier 3 -- Will Levis, Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett
If you're looking for upside, these are your guys.
Implied point total for each quarterback's team:
22 -- Jones
21.5 -- Prescott
21.5 -- Herbert
21.25 -- Stroud
20.75 -- Love
19.5 -- Pickett
18.5 -- Howell
17.75 -- Jones
17 -- Levis
Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup
Tier 1 -- Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young
Tier 2 -- Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield
There are 12 players at the RB position that I want to start, a tier that ends with Bijan Robinson, D'Andre Swift, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, and Derrick Henry.
Beyond that, you can find how I'm sorting out the position below.
Group 1: There's definitely upside!
Tier 1 -- Kenneth Walker
Tier 2 -- Gus Edwards, Aaron Jones
Tier 3 -- Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford
Tier 4 -- Zack Moss
Group 2: Safe starters if you don't have a higher-upside option that you prefer
Tier 1 -- Joe Mixon, James Cook, Rachaad White, Devin Singletary (if Dameon Pierce is out)
Tier 2 -- Darrell Henderson, Emari Demercardo
Tier 3 -- Royce Freeman, Singletary (if Pierce plays)
Tier 4 -- Justice Hill, Ezekiel Elliott, Jeff Wilson Jr.
Group 3: We're betting on volume. There's not much upside here.
Tier 1 -- Rhamondre Stevenson, Chuba Hubbard
Tier 2 -- Alexander Mattison, Najee Harris
Tier 3 -- AJ Dillon, Tyler Allgeier
Group 4: Plays that make sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection
Tier 1 -- Kareem Hunt, Jaylen Warren
Tier 2 -- Miles Sanders, D'Onta Foreman, Roschon Johnson, Cam Akers, Zach Charbonnet, Pierre Strong, Tyjae Spears
It's a brutal week at the WR position. The Week 9 must-start group of wide receivers ends with Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, and Jaylen Waddle as the WR6-WR9. Here's who comes next:
Group 1: I think we can trust these players
Tier 1 -- Mike Evans, DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, Diontae Johnson
Tier 2 -- DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Olave, Michael Pittman, Chris Godwin, Gabe Davis, Josh Downs
Tier 3 -- Jakobi Meyers, Elijah Moore, Rashee Rice, Christian Watson, Michael Thomas, Romeo Doubs, Demario Douglas
Tier 4 -- Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Boyd
Group 2: Mystery Box
Tier 1 -- Cooper Kupp
Tier 2 -- Drake London, Amari Cooper, Nico Collins, DJ Moore, Puka Nacua, Tee Higgins, Terry McLaurin, George Pickens
Tier 3 -- Tyler Lockett, Marquise Brown, Tank Dell, Jordan Addison
Group 3: Desperation Plays
Tier 1 -- Joshua Palmer, Rashid Shaheed, Jahan Dotson
Tier 2 -- Jayden Reed , Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Tier 3 -- Michael Gallup, Curtis Samuel, DJ Chark, Wan'Dale Robinson, Allen Lazard, Quentin Johnston, Odell Beckham Jr., Treylon Burks, Jonathan Mingo
Group 4: I'd really rather avoid them
Tier 1 -- K.J. Osborn, Tutu Atwell, Michael Wilson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Tier 2 -- Datius Slayton, Jalin Hyatt, Darnell Mooney, Rashod Bateman, Skyy Moore
Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and T.J. Hockenson are the tight ends I consider must-starts for Week 9.
Group 1 -- Upside shots
Tier 1 -- Dallas Goedert, Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson
Tier 2 -- David Njoku, Trey McBride, Taysom Hill
Tier 3 -- Luke Musgrave, Logan Thomas, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, Donald Parham
Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly
Placement in Group 2 doesn't indicate that I prefer a Group 1 TE. You can find my full Week 9 rankings here for help navigating specific positional start-sit decisions.
Tier 1 -- Dalton Schultz
Tier 2 -- Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry
Tier 3 -- Tyler Higbee, Cade Otton, Michael Mayer
Group 3 -- You can find a better option, right?
Tier 1 -- Chigoziem Okonkwo, Connor Heyward, Daniel Bellinger
Tier 2 -- Tyler Conklin, Juwan Johnson, Irv Smith Jr., Noah Fant
Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's, when I set aside time for lineup questions!
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