Fantasy Football Week 2: 32 stats that matter when setting lineups, including why Davante Adams has huge upside

If you're starting your Fantasy football draft research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 1 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets for Week 2.

One player Gibbs is especially high on: Raiders WR Davante Adams. Adams was heavily targeted in Week 1, and with teammate Jakobi Myers in concussion protocol, Adams could get an even bigger workload against the Bills. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 2? And which under-the-radar tight end could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' Week 2 analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

We're changing up the weekly content that I'll provide this year, and I'm psyched for it! This game-by-game guide is one of the new installments, along with a weekly Lineup Advice article for SportsLine members.

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total and rank will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Wednesday live streams or on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions. I'm aiming to have time to take questions two to three times per week throughout the season.

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 2.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers

Over/Under -- 40.5 points

Falcons (21.25 points - No. 15) -- At first glance, this Packers defense appears to be an easy one to run on. Their strength, when it comes to stopping the run, happens to match up well with how Atlanta prefers to attack, though.

In 2022, the Packers allowed a league-high 6.0 yards per rush attempt on man/gap schemed attempts, per the FantasyPoints Data Suite. This run defense struggled last year. When facing zone-schemed rush attempts, though, Green Bay actually ranked above average (12th) in yards allowed per rush. In Week 1, Chicago gained only 12 rushing yards on 8 zone attempts against the Packers.

58% of Atlanta's rush attempts were outsize zone looks in 2022. The next-highest rate belonged to Minnesota at 41%.

We're going to see a ton of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier attacking there and looking for perimeter gaps leading to open field as the Falcons look to control and set the edge in 2023. Atlanta faced a tough zone rush defense in Week 1 and bent them to their will as the game wore on, rushing for an inefficient but eventually productive 17-51-2 line on zone attempts.

Packers (19.25 points - No. 24) -- Green Bay's offense may do a better job of sustaining drives and preventing Arthur Smith from feeding Allgeier, but their implied point total is concerning.

Also concerning: advanced metrics do not support Jordan Love's Week 1 production.

How I'm approaching this game:

If you're choosing a Packers pass-catcher for DFS purposes, Jayden Reed is who I'd go with. He's mega-cheap and his pre-snap motion and downfield usage in Week 1 was exciting.

Really, though, I am doing my best to avoid this game entirely.

If Aaron Jones doesn't suit up, A.J. Dillon is a fine flex play, but I don't like the matchup. I have him ranked one spot (RB23) ahead of Allgeier (RB24) for half-PPR formats, under the assumption that Jones is out of the picture.

Start Bijan Robinson. Pray for Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Ugh, I really hoped to avoid Arthur Smith-induced seasonal depression until later in the year. Let's move on to a more fun game.

Buffalo Bills vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Over/Under -- 47 points

Bills (27.5 points - No. 1) -- The Bills offense is in a prime bounce-back spot in Week 2.

Raiders (19.5 points - No. 23) -- The ground-game matchup presents much more cleanly for Josh Jacobs than in Week 1. Look for the Week 1 avoided tackle leader to get on track in Week 2.

How I'm approaching this game:

I love Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams as DFS tournament plays in Week 2. The Raiders offense was mega-concentrated on three players in Week 1. Jimmy Garoppolo only had eyes for Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. According to the FantasyPoints Data Suite, both Adams and Meyers had first read rates above 40%, ranking both players in the top-five overall. With Meyers likely to miss Week 2 while in the concussion protocol, we could see Adams push for a 60% first read rate.

We have the Bills in an undeniably awesome bounce-back spot and playing with a chip on their shoulder after an embarrassing Monday night loss to Zach Wilson and company. I want to be aggressive in targeting Allen, Diggs, and Davis in DFS. But, for Buffalo to really feel any sense of urgency to push the ball down the field, the Raiders are going to need to keep this game close.

I'll be building several game stacks that include both Adams and Jacobs with the Bills players. I expect the offense to flow almost exclusively through Adams and Jacobs, and it might work! We could see 15+ targets for Adams, 25+ touches for Jacobs, and 30+ points scored for the Bills. That's a tournament-winning formula.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under -- 46 points

Bengals (24.5 points - No. 6) -- The weather is expected to be better, and sportsbooks are projecting the Bengals as if we'll see a big-time bounce back from Joe Burrow in Week 2. In 2022, Burrow threw for 215 and 217 yards in two meetings with the Ravens. He completed one passing touchdown in each game.

I'm feeling even less enthused about Joe Mixon and the ground game. This is about as brutal of a matchup as it gets.

Ravens (21.5 points - No. 12) -- Lamar Jackson had one of the lowest average depths of target (4.6 yards) in Week 1 and was pressured at one of the highest rates.

Jackson has a well-documented history of struggling against the blitz. The Bengals blitzed at the second-highest rate (48%) in Week 1, and Cincinnati blitzed Jackson 52% of the time in their one 2022 meeting. He's going to get blitzed a lot in this spot.

What's interesting about Jackson's tendencies vs. the blitz is that his aDOT comes down -- the NFL average goes up significantly when facing the blitz. Quarterbacks often take blitzes as an opportunity to take a shot down the field against single coverage. Jackson hasn't been comfortable standing in and pushing the ball down the field when blitzed, though.

In 2022, Jackson's aDOT when not blitzed was 16% above the league average but 3% below the league average against the blitz. I'd expect this blitz-heavy matchup and Jackson's tendencies when blitzed to result in another heavy heaping of quick targets to rookie Zay Flowers.

How I'm approaching this game:

This game has a 46-point over/under, so I don't feel great about avoiding it. But I do want to. I don't really want any part of it outside of locking Zay Flowers into my DFS lineups. We could see 40-50 dropbacks from the Ravens in this spot, especially if Jackson makes mistakes against the blitz and Baltimore finds themselves needing to dig out of an early hole. They might not be high-quality dropbacks, but the potential for that type of route run volume is super exciting for a player who is as electric as Flowers.

Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under -- 27 points

Lions (26 points - No. 4) -- This is a massive implied point total for a Detroit offense that didn't look particularly impressive against a Chris Jones-less Kansas City defense in Week 1. Who is going to score these points?

Well, in 2022, teams avoided Tariq Woolen and Seattle's cornerbacks and fed targets to running backs and tight ends. Seattle's opponent's wide receiver target share was just 52.8%, the third-lowest in the NFL. Tight ends were 16% more likely to be targeted, while running backs were 9% more likely to draw targets.

Of course, we saw Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell light this Seattle secondary up in Week 1. But, after looking into Jared Goff's tendencies when facing Cover-3 (Seattle's most-used coverage scheme at 55% in Week 1), I feel fairly confident that we're going to see a lot more Detroit RB targets than we did in Week 1. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are underpriced (check out which DFS values I'm eyeing in Week 2 here) and intriguing matchup-based plays in this spot.

Seahawks (21 points - No. 20) -- The Lions only blitzed 13% of the time in Week 1. In 2022, Detroit had the highest opponent time to throw (2.99 seconds) in the NFL. In Week 1, their opponent time to throw was 3.28 seconds.

Since the start of 2022, Geno Smith has the third-highest passer rating on attempts that took three or more seconds. Tyler Lockett accounted for 26.7% of the targets when Smith took 3+ seconds to throw, while DK Metcalf's target share dropped to 18.3%.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm worried about Seattle's offense. One starting offensive tackle has already been placed on the IR, and they're likely going to be missing both in Week 2. The Lions didn't blitz Patrick Mahomes in Week 1, because that's a no-no. They may be less content to let Geno Smith sit back and wait for his receivers to get open; Seattle's wide receivers are better at getting open than Kadarius Toney and Co.

Still, Smith took his time in this matchup last year. Detroit was one of just five opponents who Smith had an average time to throw greater than three seconds against, and he put up 320 yards and two scores through the air. I'm cautiously hoping for a bounce-back from Seattle's passing attack, and Lockett is the player I specifically feel is the best positioned to outperform expectations in this matchup.

Kenneth Walker played two-thirds of the snaps and handled 71% of Seattle's RB rush attempts in Week 1. He's way too cheap in DFS for the role that he's expected to play in a potential shootout.

On the Detroit side of the ball, the running backs and Sam LaPorta could see additional targets in this matchup and are viable flex options for Fantasy. Amon-Ra St. Brown's efficiency actually drops a bit vs. Cover-3 schemes, but he's the epitome of an every-week start.

Tennesee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Over/Under -- 45 points

Titans (21.25 points - No. 15) -- The rushing edge for Tennessee is obvious. The Chargers were inarguably the worst rush defense in the NFL in 2022. Start Derrick Henry. You could even start Tyjae Spears! He played a ton in Week 1, and he could be on the field a lot in passing situations if the Titans fall into an early hole.

Chigoziem Okonkwo is the player I want to highlight.

His Week 1 role was really exciting, and Okonkwo may be a much bigger part of the offense in Week 2 if DeAndre Hopkins (ankle) sits. Hopkins was Ryan Tannehill's first read 42% of the time in Week 1. If Treylon Burks and replacement receivers struggle to get off the line against L.A.'s heavy use of press coverage, Okonkwo could soak up targets.

Chargers (23.75 points - No. 10) -- Two teams had an opponent passer rating above 100 on deep attempts (15+ air yards) in 2022: the Detroit Lions (105.2) and Tennessee Titans (117.5). The Titans were by far the easiest team to attack deep against. Specifically, they were a sieve for opposing field-stretching wide receivers. Tennessee's opponent passer rating on deep targets to the WR position was 124.1

In Week 1, it was more of the same. Derek Carr has the highest aDOT in the NFL, and this secondary was light work for Chris Olave.

Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams project as top-15 Fantasy wide receivers for Week 2. It was a disappointing Week 1 for Williams, but I dug into his usage and came away reasonably optimistic about his future outlook.

The Chargers designed two screen targets for him early in the game, Justin Herbert connected with him on two deep attempts, and Williams drew a red zone target in the back of the end zone. Quentin Johnston appears to be weeks (or months, even) away from playing a significant role, so Williams should continue to operate as the unrivaled 1B to Keenan Allen. He's super cheap in DFS and this is a perfect matchup for his skill set to translate to production.

How I'm approaching this game:

Okonkwo is one of my favorite TE plays for DFS tournaments in Week 2, even if Hopkins suits up. If Hopkins sits, Okonkwo will be a top-12 Fantasy TE in my Week 2 rankings. There's upside with Treylon Burks if Hopkins does miss this game, but I'd rather take a wait and see approach. Week 1 wasn't encouraging.

You might also notice Mike Williams on that list of discouraging Week 1 PFF grades at WR. I'm cautiously optimistic that we get a big Big Mike game in such an advantageous Week 2 matchup, but do be aware that film-watchers weren't impressed with what they saw from the seventh-year wideout in Week 1.

Even if Austin Ekeler is out, I'm not into Joshua Kelley in this spot. I'd consider him a borderline top-20 Fantasy RB for Week 2, just ahead of guys like Miles Sanders, Raheem Mostert, Allgeier, and Dillon (if he's filling in for Jones). The Titans are tough against the run! Their 3.4-yard opposing per-rush average since the start of 2022 is the lowest in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears

Over/Under -- 40.5 points

Buccaners (21.5 points - No. 12) -- No team allowed more yards per target to the wide receiver position than the Bears in 2022.

Bears (19 points - No. 25) -- The Bucs blitzed 45% of the time in Week 1. In 2022, Justin Fields increased his average depth of target from 8.8 yards when not blitzed to 9.7 when blitzed.

Fields had a league-low 3.1-yard aDOT in Week 1, but we should see more downfield looks for DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney in Week 2. The Buccaneers had the third-highest opponent passer rating on passes that traveled 15+ air yards in 2022.

How I'm approaching this game:

Mike Evans saw awesome usage in Week 1. Evans was Baker Mayfield's first read 38% of the time. Both Evans and Chris Godwin are top-24 Fantasy WR options with the Bucs carrying a healthy 21.5-point implied team total in this soft matchup, and you could even consider Mayfield in Superflex formats.

I believe that Rachaad White deserves at least one more opportunity to capitalize on his every-down role. I have White ranked as the RB17 for Week 2.

For Chicago, it's worth noting that Khalil Herbert played 55% of the snaps in the first half in Week 1. Roschon Johnson looked awesome in garbage time, and he definitely has the talent to make the most of his opportunities. For the time being, I'd expect Herbert to get the first crack at playing a prominent role. Tampa Bay does not present an inviting matchup on the ground, though.

If you drafted Justin Fields and DJ Moore, you are likely starting them in this matchup. I don't feel great about it. I have Moore ranked as the WR35 for Week 2. Displayed below is where Fields sits in my latest Week 2 QB rankings.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under -- 39 points

Texans (20.25 points - No. 21) -- I tweeted this prior to a predictably disappointing Week 1 performance from Dameon Pierce:

The game script sets up much more favorably for him in Week 2, as Houston's implied point total comes in well above 17 points and this is expected to be a closely contested game.

Houston's first-time offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik admitted that the game plan got away from him a bit and that the Texans would like to recommit to Pierce and the run in Week 2.

Colts (18.75 points - No. 27) -- Michael Pittman's career target per route run rate drops from 26.5% when facing man coverage to 18.7% vs. zone. The Texans only used zone 13.8% of the time in the first game of the DeMeco Ryans era.

How I'm approaching this game:

Ryans' defense gave Lamar Jackson some problems last week and kept everything in front of them, which was the M.O. in San Francisco as well. I wouldn't expect Richardson to push the ball down the field much more often than in Week 1 (5.8-yard aDOT), meaning Pittman will likely need a big catch-and-run play or multiple touchdowns to post a ceiling type of performance. The target volume should still mostly be there -- Pittman was Richardson's first read 35% of the time in Week 1 -- but I wouldn't expect great efficiency.

No, this feels like a spot where Josh Downs and Kylen Granson could soak up a lot of targets. Granson got his third season started in an encouraging way and isn't a bad option if you're desperate at TE in Week 2.

I expect to see a lot more rushing from Richardson in this game, and he's locked into my Week 2 starting lineups. I also think that Zack Moss projects quite well for this game. Deon Jackson turned in an absolutely abysmal performance in Week 1, and Moss feels likely to soak up most of that workload. It's a bit of a risk, but I would start Moss over the likes of Brian Robinson, Breece Hall, Cam Akers and Khalil Herbert in Week 2.

The Texans present several intriguing Week 2 options. Robert Woods saw 10 targets in Week 1, but that number could shrink with Tank Dell (a known target earner) taking over for Noah Brown. Dell is intriguing in his own right and is absolutely worth adding prior to Week 2 with Brown set to miss at least the next four games. I love Nico Collins (read more about his unique skill set here) and have documented his target-hogging ability every step of the way, but he has never faced much target competition. I'm expecting a big game from Collins in Week 2, but I wouldn't be stunned if Dell snuck in a team-high target total. Dell is a baller.

Both receivers could eat in this soft matchup, and Indy's heavy use of Cover-3 does indicate that the target distribution will skew towards the WR1.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under -- 51.5 points

Jaguars (24 points - No. 8) -- The Chiefs used press coverage at a league-high rate (81%) in 2022. That's good news for Calvin Ridley, and potentially really bad news for Zay Jones. Jones really struggled against press coverage last year.

Chiefs (27.5 points - No. 1) -- The Jaguars were one of 10 teams to blitz on over one-third of dropbacks in Week 1. Don't blitz Patrick Mahomes. 

How I'm approaching this game:

I expect that we'll see a lot more three-receiver sets from Jacksonville in this game than we did against the Colts, so a Christian Kirk bounce back is certainly a possibility.

I have Kirk ranked as the WR34 for Week 2. Ridley, Travis Etienne, and Evan Engram are locked into your Week 2 lineups, and both Kirk and Jones (WR49) warrant consideration.

For the Chiefs, I'd rather avoid anyone not named Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce. The backfield is split three ways, and the wide receiver room is split about six ways. Weather is a concern for this game, and I expect it to be a more fun real-life product than it is for Fantasy.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Over/Under -- 45 points

Rams (19 points - No. 25) -- The 49ers use a ton of zone coverage defensively (I created a Twitter thread to discuss their schemes in more detail) and keep everything in front of them. San Francisco had the fourth-lowest opponent average depth of target in 2022. Tyler Higbee is a known target drawer against zone coverage, and teams typically target the RB position at a higher rate against the 49ers. With the Rams listed as seven-point dogs, we could see a lot of Kyren Williams again.

49ers (26 points - No. 4) -- The Rams also use a lot of zone coverage. L.A. only used man coverage 11% of the time in Week 1. This could be a big Deebo Samuel game.

How I'm approaching this game:

Aiyuk is one of my favorite wide receivers, and he looked so good in Week 1 that I have at tough time backing off of him even in a zone-heavy matchup.

With the Niners carrying a 26-point implied team total, everybody on the San Francisco side of the ball is in play for season-long Fantasy leagues. For DFS purposes, I actually love this game as a sneaky stacking option if Puka Nacua plays. The creative ways that Sean McVay used pre-snap motion to scheme up free releases for Tutu Atwell in Week 1 was really cool and we sometimes see new wrinkles like this work for extended stretches before opposing defenses make adjustments. I'll have at least one large-field tournament lineup that includes Stafford, Christian McCaffrey, Nacua, Atwell, Aiyuk, and Samuel. The most expensive player from that group after McCaffrey is Aiyuk at $5,600 on DraftKings. If Stafford shows up in the way that he did in Week 1, this could be a high-scoring game. It's one of just six games with an over/under of 45-points or higher on the main slate. If it hits, this stack could hit in a huge way.

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants

Over/Under -- 40 points

Cardinals (18 points - No. 30) -- New York's opponents targeted their first read 80% of the time in 2022. No other team had a rate higher than 75%.

In Week 1, Zach Ertz was Arizona's first read 35% of the time. Marquise Brown was the first-read 22% of the time.

This is also a man-heavy coverage matchup for Brown, which is noteworthy.

No team used man coverage more than the Giants (49%) in 2022.

Giants (22 points - No. 11) -- Under new defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, the Cardinals did some really wonky stuff in Week 1. Arizona only blitzed 7.7% of the time, by far the lowest rate. Rallis only used Cover-3 (the most-common coverage type in the NFL with a league average rate of 37%) 17% of the time, instead opting to dial up Cover-4 at a league-high 42% rate.

It comes on a relatively small sample size, as Cover-4 is an uncommon scheme, but Daniel Jones had the NFL's highest passer rating vs. Cover-4 in 2022. He ranked just 17th percentile vs. Cover-3 in 2022.

How I'm approaching this game:

I expect Jones to bounce back in this game. The Giants have the eleventh-highest implied team total, and the matchup sets up nicely for him. Saquon Barkley and Darren Waller should be locked into your starting lineups, and Darius Slayton is intriguing in deep leagues.

It's not going to feel good, but each of Brown, Ertz, and James Conner are in play in this matchup. If you don't have better options, they're decent volume-based plays!

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets

Over/Under -- 39 points

Cowboys (24 points - No. 8) -- In 2022, Jets opponents were 15% more likely to target the RB position, 18% more likely to target tight ends, and 14% more likely to target the slot. Quarterbacks did not want test these corners. We could see a ton of targets for Tony Pollard in this spot.

Jets (15 points - No. 32) -- A whopping 48 different players had more targets and air yards than Garrett Wilson in Week 1. In 2022, Wilson's target per route run rate fell to 20% with Zach Wilson at QB. That's Courtland Sutton/Treylon Burks territory.

How I'm approaching this game:

I have Garrett Wilson ranked as the WR28 for Week 2, and that is projecting him to take a step forward from what we saw last year and improve his per-route data, even with Zach Wilson actively sabotaging him. If I can, I'm avoiding the Jets entirely in Week 2. A 15-point implied team total is nuts! We all saw how ugly things can get for a dysfunctional offense against this Cowboys defense on Monday night.

For the Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb will have his hands full against the Jets corners but is looking at too much target volume to avoid. He and Pollard are plug-and-plays, and Jake Ferguson is an intriguing option as well. He ran a route on nearly three-fourths of Dak Prescott's dropbacks before the game got out of hand in Week 1.

Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders

Over/Under -- 39 points

Broncos (21.25 points - No. 15) -- The Commanders pressured the QB at the seventh-highest rate in 2022 and are expected to get Chase Young back for this game. When pressured in 2022, Russell Wilson only targeted his wide receivers 42% of the time. That was the lowest qualified rate. 22% of his targets went to the RB position and 25% went to tight ends.

Commanders (17.75 points - No. 31) -- While Terry McLaurin contends with Patrick Surtain Jr., Jahan Dotson could be Sam Howell's first read more often in Week 2.

How I'm approaching this game:

Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and Jerry Jeudy are in play as flex options, as are Dotson and Brian Robinson from the Washington side of the ball. Really, I'd prefer to avoid this game entirely.

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

Over/Under -- 46 points

Patriots (21.5 points - No. 12) -- The Patriots played at the fastest pace in the NFL in Week 1. Their situation-neutral pace (score within six points) also ranked first. No player ran more routes than Kendrick Bourne. Miami's starting corners to open the season are Xavien Howard and Eli Apple. Howard earned a PFF coverage grade of 56 last year and led the NFL in receiving yardage allowed. Apple's grade was actually worse (55), and he allowed the seventh-most yards. In Week 1, Apple had a PFF coverage grade of 58. Howard's was 44.

Dolphins (24.5 points - No. 6) -- The Patriots used man coverage at the eighth-highest rate (28%) in 2022. No team used man coverage more than New England (45%) in Week 1.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'm really intrigued by what we saw from New England in Bill O'Brien's first game calling plays. If the increase in pace is legit, we could have some exciting Fantasy pass-catchers in New England! For now, Kendrick Bourne appears to be at the top of the list, and his per-route rates and sporadic flashes prior to 2023 make him the most intriguing of the bunch after he ran a route on over 90% of Mac Jones dropbacks in Week 1.

Speaking of Jones, he cracked the top 20 in my Week 2 QB rankings! He's a viable streaming option in deeper leagues. The only other Patriots worth consideration at this point are Hunter Henry (who I have ranked as the TE19) and Rhamondre Stevenson (RB10).

Both Raheem Mostert and Durham Smythe (that's right!) are in play if you're in a pinch. Hill, Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa are the only Dolphins that I want to start in Week 2.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Over/Under -- 39.5 points

Panthers (18.25 points - No. 28) --  The Saints used man coverage 47% of the time (second-most) in Week 1. Their 93% press coverage rate was the highest in the NFL. Carolina's young receivers will have their hands full in this matchup. For what it's worth, Terrace Marshall had some success against press coverage in 2022.

Saints (21.25 points - No. 15) -- The Panthers aren't a defense that I'm looking to attack in 2023, but this is undeniably a better spot than what Jamaal Williams got in his first spot start.

The role was there for Williams. He handled 86% of the RB rush attempts and ran a route on 63% of Derek Carr's dropbacks -- one of the highest rates at the RB position.

How I'm approaching this game:

I'd rather start Jamaal Williams than Miles Sanders. Williams is ranked as the RB16 for me in Week 2. While Sanders split work with Chuba Hubbard and was far less efficient than his younger backfield mate, Williams completely dominated the backfield usage in New Orleans.

Juwan Johnson registered a solid 82% route involvement rate in Week 1 and is fine to play when in an exciting game environment. With a 39.5-point over/under, this doesn't feel like the spot. I share that sentiment when it comes to Michael Thomas's Week 2 outlook. His Week 1 showing wasn't discouraging, but I'd rather not go there in this gross game environment. Chris Olave's the only player on either side of the ball that I actually want to play.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

Over/Under -- 38.5 points

Steelers (18.25 points - No. 28) -- The Browns used way more man and press coverage in the first game under new defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz.

Browns (20.25 points - No. 21) -- Amari Cooper was a target hog when he was on the field in Week 1.

Elijah Moore was also heavily involved on those plays! Moore was on the field for 20 of those 22 routes and actually had more receiving yards than Cooper during that time. He accounted for 35% of Cleveland's targets while Cooper was on the field.

How I'm approaching this game:

Amari Cooper is a lock-and-load starter, while Elijah Moore is squarely in flex play consideration. David Njoku projects as a fringe top-10 Fantasy TE and is fine if you have to trust him. Deshaun Watson is a fringe top-12 Fantasy QB at the point. And, of course, Nick Chubb is the man.

Pittsburgh is gross. I guess you can start Najee Harris if you have to. This Browns defense has shown some weakness on the ground. Harris projects really poorly, he's my RB28 for Week 2. I don't really want to start any of the Steelers wide receivers, either. George Pickens could get behind this aggressive Browns coverage scheme, but if he doesn't bring down a deep target, he's likely looking at another really quiet day. Both Allen Robinson and Calvin Austin were more involved after Diontae Johnson went down in Week 1.

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