Fantasy Football Week 16 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies. If you're unfamiliar with specific coverage schemes and their impact on opposing offenses, you should check out this Twitter thread in which Gibbs unpacks all of the relevant information for you.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme.

In 2022, Gibbs' matchup analysis helped predict A.J. Brown's 155-yard Week 1 output as well the 171-yard and two-touchdown explosion from Gabe Davis in Week 5. In Week 6, Gibbs' matchup data pointed towards Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as being in a terrific spot against Minnesota's Cover-3 and Cover-6 combo, and the Miami duo dropped a combined 53.7 DraftKings points. In Week 7, Gibbs helped DFS players avoid Deebo Samuel's lowest output (9.4 DK points) of the season. In Week 8, Gibbs nailed the DJ Moore bounce-back spot (season-high 30.5 DK points) and was all over the Dolphins stack against a coverage scheme that was susceptible to downfield attacks. Hill, Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa combined for over 100 DK points in that game. And in Week 14, Gibbs highlighted the man-coverage heavy matchup for Justin Jefferson before Minnesota's third-year phenom eviscerated Detroit's secondary for 223 receiving yards.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game and found seven that stand out. One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: DK Metcalf against a Chiefs defense that uses man coverage at an above average rate.

"Any boost in man coverage is notable for Metcalf," Gibbs says.

"The Chiefs also use Cover-4 at a well above average rate, and that is the zone scheme that Metcalf has fared the best against in 2022."

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And how much of a priority should finding the savings to fit Justin Jefferson's salary be in Week 16 DFS roster construction? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

DK Metcalf lines up incredibly well on paper for his Week 16 matchup

It has come on a relatively small sample size, but DK Metcalf has drawn targets at a Davante Adams-like rate when not sharing the field with Tyler Lockett. Metcalf is severely underpriced ($8,000 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings) if we can expect him to sustain anything close to that type of a target per route run rate in Week 16.

On top of the Lockett boost, Metcalf draws a Kansas City defense that uses man coverage at the NFL's eighth-highest rate (30%). Any boost in man coverage is notable for Metcalf.

The Chiefs also use Cover-4 at a well above average rate, and that is the zone scheme that Metcalf has fared the best against in 2022.

One schematic note about Kansas City's defense that doesn't bode well for Metcalf is the heavy use of Cover-2 -- the Texans are the only team with a higher Cover-2 rate than the Chiefs (21.6%). In general, wide receivers are not targeted at a high rate against Cover-2, and Metcalf has been no exception. The running back position usually sees a boost vs. Cover-2, and Kansas City has seen the third-most opponent RB targets in 2022. We could see Kenneth Walker more involved as a pass-catcher in this spot.

Justin Jefferson should shred an aggressive Giants scheme

New York brings the most aggressive defense in the NFL, and the result is a 24th-ranked pass defense DVOA and the third-highest opponent average depth of target. The Giants blitz at by far the highest rate (40.7%) in the NFL (34.6% is the next-highest rate) and are first by a wide margin in man coverage use (45.7%, compared to a second-place rate of 37.8%), and teams have aggressively attacked downfield against this scheme.

The NFL's most efficient producer against man coverage since he entered the league three years ago, Justin Jefferson presents a real problem for New York's scheme. Leaving any cornerback on an island against Jefferson is just cruel. If their pass rush doesn't get there in time, New York's cornerbacks are going to have a long day -- their only real hope is that Kirk Cousins struggles. Cousins was one of the best statistical performers against man coverage in 2021 and 2022 but has fallen off a bit in 2022. As a result, Jefferson has fallen all the way to third in yard per route run rate vs. man (3.30), behind A.J. Brown (3.58) and Ja'Marr Chase (3.55).

Jefferson has been heavily leaned on recently, piling up 31 targets and 346 receiving yards over his past two games and scoring 30+ DraftKings points in three of his past four. He went for 223 yards against a Detroit defense that profiles similarly to New York from a schematic standpoint just two weeks ago -- the Lions are playing at a much higher level defensively than New York at the moment, so similar upside is certainly available to Jefferson in this spot. If you're building multiple tournament lineups for Week 16, you're doing yourself a disservice if not getting some exposure to Jefferson's massive upside.

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There might be something here

If Joe Burrow takes shots downfield against New England's man-heavy defense, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase could be slate-breakers

As mentioned already, Ja'Marr Chase has the NFL's second-highest yard per route run rate vs. man coverage. Over the past three seasons, only eight players have a higher rate than Tee Higgins. One of these two -- or both -- could be in for a big day while facing a Patriots defense that brings the NFL's fifth-highest man coverage rate.

Opponents have chosen to attack aggressively down the field against New England's man-heavy coverage scheme -- only three teams have a higher opponent average depth of target than the Patriots, and none have a higher opponent average time to throw (2.99 seconds).

The NFL average time to throw is 2.79 seconds. When examining Cincinnati's splits at each increasing interval of tenth-seconds from the 2.79 average to New England's 2.99-second mark, the rates for Tee Higgins jump off of the page.

Joe Burrow's target per route run rates when given 2.79+ seconds to throw:
(2021-22 seasons)

30.8% -- Tee Higgins
18.9% -- Ja'Marr Chase
16.9% -- Tyler Boyd

Joe Burrow's target per route run rates when given 2.89+ seconds to throw:
(2021-22 seasons)

29.7% -- Tee Higgins
19.2% -- Ja'Marr Chase
16.0% -- Tyler Boyd

Joe Burrow's target per route run rates when given 2.99+ seconds to throw:
(2021-22 seasons)

26.7% -- Tee Higgins
19.4% -- Ja'Marr Chase
17.5% -- Tyler Boyd

The other rates that stood out belonged to Burrow's running backs. Burrow targeted the RB position on 25% of their routes on throws that took 2.79+ seconds, compared to 22% on throws that came more quickly. But, when facing man coverage with 2.79+ seconds to throw, that 25% rate dropped to 19.5%. Typically, the RB and TE positions see a decrease in targets vs. man coverage while perimeter receivers see a boost.

Chase has drawn targets at rates that we've never seen from him before over his past two games, and as a whole, his Year 2 marks a huge step forward in his ability to demand WR1-like target shares.

The splits from the past two seasons do favor Higgins, but we shouldn't ignore what we have seen developing recently. While Higgins has battled a hamstring injury, Chase has appeared to take over as the clear-cut WR1.

Higgins practiced in full on Thursday, so if you are more of a large-field tournament player in search of massive upside at relatively discounted price tag and rostered rates, this feels like a decent time to place a bet that he is back at near full health. Chase feels like the far safer play, and his $8,300 price tag on DraftKings really isn't all that restrictive.

Christian Watson brings explosive potential in a projected shootout against Miami

(Not on the Saturday main slate)

Christian Watson has run only 56 routes vs. man coverage, so his off-the-charts efficiency within that split should be taken with a big grain of salt. The rookie has been exceptional when facing man coverage, though.

The thread above was tweeted prior to Watson's Monday Night Football appearance. His current target per route run rate vs. man coverage sits at 32%. Among players with at least 50 routes run vs. man coverage, Watson ranks 12th in target per route run rate and 2nd in yards per route run.

We should see Watson's per-route sample size vs. man coverage increase significantly after his Week 16 matchup against the Dolphins. Miami ranks second in the NFL in man coverage rate (37.8%) and are one of just seven teams with a blitz rate above 30%.

I bring up Miami's biltz rate because Aaron Rodgers has displayed a tendency to stand in and take deep shots against the blitz. Rodgers' average depth of target is only 2% above the league average, but when biltzed, that discrepancy grows to 29%. When blitzed, Rodgers has been more likely than other quarterbacks to attempt deep passes. This tendency is backed by Watson's team-high 32% target per route run rate when Rodgers has been blitzed. When blitzed, Rodgers has looked to find Watson or Romeo Doubs down the field in a winnable situation, or he has dumped it off to Randall Cobb if he doesn't feel good about his downfield options.

I feel good about Watson in this spot. He brings a wide range of outcomes, but the matchup and game script both line up quite well for his chances of landing in the top of that wide range. He's one of the strongest plays available at just a $6,000 price tag for Sunday's DraftKings slate and is the WR17 in my Week 16 rankings.

Diontae Johnson and George Pickens feel like viable options against a man-heavy Raiders coverage scheme

(Not on the Saturday main slate)

The Steelers have had moderate success moving the chains recently, and Diontae Johnson and George Pickens have been big parts of that. The underlying volume rates are quite concerning for Pickens at this point, but he has produced efficiently with the opportunities that he has been given. Johnson has been quite the opposite -- he is by far the least efficient of the top-end target drawers in the NFL. Johnson (toe) missed Wednesday's practice; if he misses Week 16's game against the Raiders, a massive share of Pittsburgh's targets will open up.

This is especially noteworthy with the Steelers facing the NFL's 31st-ranked pass defense, per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Further working in the favor of the Pittsburgh receivers is the Raiders' sixth-ranked man coverage rate and 12th-ranked blitz rate. Both Johnson and Pickens have better splits when facing man and the blitz.

If Johnson suits up, he will be one of the best FLEX plays available on Saturday night's showdown slate and is worth consideration at the 'captain spot' -- at some point, he will score a touchdown, presumably. He's currently ranked as the WR21 in my Week 16 rankings, so I wouldn't hesitate to start him if he's on your squad. Johnson drew a massive 47% target share in Week 15, and his 35% target share over the past month is the NFL's third-highest. In a matchup against the Raiders, this is nearly an ideal on-paper setup.

If Johnson sits out, Pickens would immediately become the best point-per dollar DFS play and would move up to the WR24 spot in my rankings. Currently, under the assumption that Johnson will play, Pickens ranks as the WR37. There is upside for him in this spot, but his recent target rates are small enough to force me away from Pickens in favor of "safer" options if Johnson is active.

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