Fantasy Football Week 15 value watch: Zack Moss among risers, plus fallers to know based on key usage metrics
Get updated on everything you need to know about Week 15 from one of the nation's top Fantasy experts
We learn new information on a weekly basis as the ever-changing Fantasy landscape reshapes itself. There are many specific usage stats that affect a player's Fantasy projection, and outside of a few players, we see those underlying usage metrics fluctuate throughout the course of a season.
Each week, SportsLine's Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs will examine all of this new information and provide a data-driven deep dive into Sunday's games to offer a better understanding of what we learned and how it will impact the Fantasy outlook of specific teams and players.
Here, we'll look at the leaderboards in several key metrics around player usage, then examine whose stock is rising or falling after the weekend's action. This week, that includes Colts running back Zack Moss.
"Prior to Week 15, almost everyone would have assumed that Deon Jackson would be the back to roster in Fantasy if Jonathan Taylor missed time," Gibbs said. "And Jackson is the Colts RB who found the end zone in Week 15, so he may feel like the right addition heading into Week 16. The underlying usage from Week 15 overwhelmingly favors Moss, though. He is the priority waiver wire pick-up, if last week's roles are any indication of what is to come in a positive Week 16 matchup against the Chargers."
If you have questions about any stats, players, or situations covered or not covered in this article, feel free to reach out to Gibbs on Twitter.
Week 15 Leaders -- Running Back
Snap rate
Week 15 RB snap rate leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
92% - James Conner
91% - CMC
87% - Saquon Barkley
85% - Dalvin Cook
77% - Raheem Mostert
75% - Kenneth Walker, Josh Jacobs
73% - Travis Etienne
68% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry
67% - Zack Moss, David Montgomery
No stat correlates more closely with Fantasy scoring at the running back position than snap rate.
Route involvement rate
A player's route involvement rate simply represents the percentage of the team's total dropbacks on which that player ran a route. So, the running backs listed above ran a route on at least half of their team's dropbacks. Running routes is the first step towards drawing targets, which is key to unlocking Fantasy upside at the RB position.
RB route involvement rate leaders Week 15
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
93% - CMC
85% - James Conner
76% - Dalvin Cook
71% - Antonio Gibson
70% - Raheem Mostert
66% - Nick Chubb
65% - Kenneth Walker, Jerick McKinnon, Saquon Barkley
60% - Travis Etienne, Michael Carter
58% - Austin Ekeler
56% - Josh Jacobs
Red zone usage
Week 15 RB red zone snap rates
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
100% - James Conner, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker, Michael Carter
94% - Joe Mixon
92% - Dalvin Cook
88% - Jerick McKinnon
80% - Travis Etienne, David Montgomery
75% - Antonio Gibson, Latavius Murray, Ezekiel Elliott
Red zone snap rate over the past month:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
97% - Dalvin Cook
93% - Jonathan Taylor, Jeff Wilson
87% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Samaje Perine
85% - Josh Jacobs
84% - David Montgomery
83% - Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson
82% - Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey
78% - Cordarrelle Patterson
Week 15 red zone touch (rush+rec) count:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
8 - Zack Moss
5 - Jamaal Williams, Joe Mixon, Jaylen Warren
4 - Deon Jackson, Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry, D'Andre Swift, Austin Ekeler, Josh Kelley, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ezekiel Elliott
These RBs have the highest percentage of their team's total red zone touches (rush+rec) over the past month
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
65% - Jonathan Taylor
63% - Aaron Jones
60% - Josh Jacobs
52% - Dalvin Cook
50% - Austin Ekeler, David Montgomery
47% - Ezekiel Elliott
45% - James Conner, Bam Knight
Another fun RB stat that I look at on a weekly basis is tackles avoided. Some backs are able to mitigate the damage while playing behind porous offensive lines by consistently making would-be tacklers miss and creating extra yards after contact. Here's who stands out:
Avoided tackle rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
(% of rushes where a tackle was avoided)
38% - Austin Ekeler
36% - Dameon Pierce
34% - Aaron Jones
33% - Nick Chubb, D'Andre Swift
32% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery
Not enough attempts to qualify, buttt:
48% - Zonovan Knight
And here's who stands out in terms of creating explosive plays:
Explosive rush (10+ yards) rate:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
(50+ attempt min)
19% - Breece Hall
18% - Khalil Herbert, Rashaad Penny, Tony Pollard
16% - JK Dobbins, Nick Chubb
15% - Miles Sanders
14% - Raheem Mostert, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker, Cordarrelle Patterson, Rhamondre Stevenson
Week 15 Leaders -- Wide Receiver
Target per route run rate - past calendar year:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
(min 250 routes)
32% - Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown
31% - Davante Adams
30% - Austin Ekeler, Cooper Kupp
28% - Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs
27% - Alvin Kamara, CMC, DK Metcalf, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Olave, Drake London
Yards per route run - past calendar year:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
(min 250 routes)
3.23- Tyreek Hill
2.76 - Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown
2.72 - Cooper Kupp
2.70 - Davante Adams
2.57 - AJ Brown
2.47 - Ja'Marr Chase
2.46 - Chris Olave
2.38 - Stefon Diggs
2.33 - Jaylen Waddle
2.21 - Tee Higgins
Highest 'off-target' rates:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 14, 2022
30% - Kyle Pitts
24% - DJ Moore
23% - Jahan Dotson
22% - Marvin Jones
21% - Darnell Mooney
20% - Elijah Moore, Nico Collins
19% - Drake London
18% - Robbie Anderson
16% - Jerry Jeudy
15% - Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Amari Cooper
Season-long air yardage share leaders:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
45% - DJ Moore
41% - AJ Brown, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson
40% - Chris Olave
39% - Tyreek Hill
38% - Amari Cooper
37% - DK Metcalf
36% - CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs
35% - Mike Evans
33% - Diontae Johnson, Tyler Lockett
Week 15 air yardage leaders at WR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
252 - AJ Brown
176 - Mack Hollins
166 - Garrett Wilson
135 - Christian Kirk
134 - DeVonta Smith
131 - Mike Evans
123 - KJ Osborn
119 - Mike Williams
114 - Jaylen Waddle
113 - Ja'Marr Chase
111 - DJ Moore
In addition to knowing which players drew massive air yardage totals, it is important to be familiar with air yardage shares. The rate version of this stat can help identify players who might break out if their offensive environment improves and produces more air yards in the future.
Week 15 air yardage share leaders at WR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
54% - AJ Brown, Ja'Marr Chase
52% - DJ Moore
50% - George Pickens
47% - Drake London, Brandon Johnson (DEN)
46% - Jaylen Waddle
42% - Mike Evans
41% - Diontae Johnson
40% - Mike Williams, Michael Pittman
Speaking of rate stats, it's about time that we got to the oh-so-important target share leaderboard.
Week 15 target share leaders at WR
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
48% - Diontae Johnson
45% - Michael Pittman
43% - AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill
42% - Drake London
34% - Ja'Marr Chase
33% - Chris Moore
32% - DJ Moore
31% - Jerry Jeudy, DeAndre Hopkins
30% - Noah Brown, Justin Jefferson, KJ Osborn
Those who produce well in both metrics get to be part of the highly exclusive 30-30 club.
Week 15
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 20, 2022
30-30 club
(L - TGT share)
(R - Air yardage share)
47% - Diontae Johnson - 41%
45% - Michael Pittman - 40%
43% - AJB - 54%
43% - Tyreek Hill - 33%
42% - Drake London - 47%
34% - Ja'Marr Chase - 54%
33% - Chris Moore - 38%
32% - DJ Moore - 52%
32% - Juwan Johnson - 35%
Understanding which players are demanding the most volume is important, but it's also worth remembering that player volume starts at a team level. Diontae Johnson's massive volume rates with little-to-no actual production exemplifies this fact perfectly.
So, which teams were intentional about pushing the ball down the field? And which teams were the least aggressive?
This brings us to our next stat: air yardage leaders. Tracking air yards, average route depths, and average depth of target is vital to understanding how each NFL offense operates and will interact with opposing defensive schemes on a week-to-week basis.
The following teams stand out as having provided the most or fewest air yards.
These teams have provided the most air yardage per game over the past month:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 7, 2022
362 - Miami
321 - Las Vegas
299 - Tampa
293 - Buffalo
291 - Minnesota
284 - Cleveland
273 - Denver
And the fewest:
142 - Carolina
185 - Detroit
192 - Chicago
196 - Indianapolis
198 - San Fran
204 - NYG
'Off-target' rates
These quarterbacks stand out as the most or least accurate passers in 2022.
Highest off-target rates on pass attempts of 10+ air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
28% - Davis Mills
26% - Taylor Heinecke, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields
24% - Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson
Lowest:
12% - Josh Allen, Andy Dalton
13% - Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa
These quarterbacks have been the most or least accurate on short attempts.
Highest off-target rates on pass attempts of 10 or fewer air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
12% - Marcus Mariota, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields
11% - Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinecke
9% - Jimmy Garoppolo, Tua Tagovailoa
Lowest:
4% - Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow
5% - Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith
And these quarterbacks stand out on downfield throws.
Highest off-target rates on pass attempts of 10+ air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
28% - Davis Mills
26% - Taylor Heinecke, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields
24% - Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Russell Wilson
Lowest:
12% - Josh Allen, Andy Dalton
13% - Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa
Highest off-target rates on pass attempts of 20+ air yards:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
50% - Zach Wilson
49% - Marcus Mariota
44% - Lamar Jackson
40% - Justin Fields, Taylor Heinecke
37% - Jared Goff
36% - Derek Carr
Lowest:
17% - Geno Smith
18% - Josh Allen
20% - Justin Herbert
21% - Tom Brady
Week 15 Leaders -- Tight End
Week 15 target share leaders at TE:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
32% - Juwan Johnson
25% - Mark Andrews
24% - Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, Cole Kmet
23% - David Njoku
22% - Jordan Akins
21% - Dawson Knox
19% - George Kittle, Chig Okwonkwo
17% - TJ Hockenson
Week 15 TE air yardage share leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
35% - Juwan Johnson
34% - George Kittle
33% - Mark Andrews
25% - TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce
22% - Austin Hooper, Eric Saubert
21% - Chig Okonkwo, Dawson Knox
17% - Daniel Bellinger, Jordan Akins
14% - Dalton Schultz
Route involvement rate -- the percentage of a team's routes on which a player runs a route.
Week 15 TE route involvement leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022
94% - Dalton Schultz
91% - Mark Andrews
89% - Evan Engram, George Kittle
88% - Daniel Bellinger
86% - TJ Hockenson
85% - Greg Dulcich
84% - Cole Kmet
82% - Dawson Knox
80% - Travis Kelce
78% - Mitch Wilcox, Trey McBride
75% - David Njoku
To draw a target, a tight end must first be running a route. The players above ran a route on the highest percentage of their team's dropbacks.
Target per route run rate
Target share isn't the only stat that captures a player's ability to demand targets -- target per route run rate is another important metric. With more route-running opportunities, these players could be highly productive in Fantasy.
WR target per route run leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 20, 2022
35% - Tyreek Hill
31% - Amon-Ra St. Brown
30% - Davante Adams
29% - Cooper Kupp
28% - CeeDee Lamb, Stefon Diggs, Drake London
27% - Justin Jefferson, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Olave
26% - Ja'Marr Chase, AJB, Deebo Samuel
25% - DK Metcalf, Tutu Atwell
RB target per route run leaders
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 20, 2022
31% - Austin Ekeler
30% - D'Andre Swift
29% - James Cook
28% - Breece Hall, CMC, Alvin Kamara
27% - Nyheim Hines, Rex Burkhead, Ameer Abdullah
26% - Rhamondre Stevenson, JD McKissic
24% - Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry
23% - Tony Pollard
One month later and Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon are still on track for career years as pass-catchers ⬇️https://t.co/9hTz8qkf9F
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
Target per route run leaders at TE
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 20, 2022
29% - Kyle Pitts
26% - Chig Okonkwo
25% - Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce
23% - Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee, Jonnu Smith
22% - Dalton Schultz, David Njoku
21% - TJ Hockenson
20% - Gerald Everett, Irv Smith Jr., Isaiah Likely
19% - Dallas Goedert
QBs with the highest percentage of passes targeting the RB position:
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2022
27% - Justin Herbert
24% - Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Davis Mills
23% - Joe Burrow
22% - Mac Jones
21% - Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers
Lowest:
12% - Jalen Hurts
13% - Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota
We cry for Travis Etienne.
Let's dig into the full data on Week 15 usage rates.
Which RB saw promising usage rates despite disappointing Fantasy production? And which wide receiver is going to have a difficult time replicating their big Week 15? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' Usage Report, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!
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