Fantasy Football Week 14: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon filling in with Isiah Pacheco out

If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 14 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One situation Gibbs is especially excited for: Kansas City's fill-in running backs as potential desperation flex plays for Fantasy managers who need help in PPR scoring formats.

The Buffalo Bills defense is one of many that has shifted to heavy two-high safety coverage schemes in an effort to prevent vertical passing, and as Gibbs noted, "Patrick Mahomes has been way more likely to target his running backs when facing two-high safety coverage schemes. Both Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice have notably lower target rates vs. two-high, while Isiah Pacheco's rate (26%) is legitimately identical to Kelce's. Oh, and the Bills have the second-highest opponent RB target rate. Maybe Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jerick McKinnon will save your Fantasy season." You NEED to see Gibbs' full analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 14? And which under-the-radar running back could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.

Unless stated otherwise, all data referenced in this article comes from TruMedia or FantasyPoints.com. TruMedia is not publicly available, you can check out the FP Data Suite here. FantasyPoints CEO Scott Barrett joined Heath Cummings and me on Fantasy Football Today for a discussion about all of the tools that the Data Suite has to offer, if you're curious!

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 14.

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Over/Under -- 37.5 points (opened at 42.5, meaning bettors have hit the Under this week)

Saints (21.5 points) -- Chris Olave has been targeted on 37% of his routes run with Jameis Winston at QB in 2023, compared to a 25% rate with Derek Carr at QB.

Panthers (16 points) -- In Week 13, Jonathan Mingo was a bigger part of the gameplan than we have seen at any other point during his rookie season.

Mingo drew three targets on which he was used as the pre-snap motion man, which made Week 13's game the first one in which Mingo recorded more than one pre-snap motion target. Any increase in pre-snap movement for Mingo would be helpful with a matchup against an aggressive and physical Saints press coverage scheme.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams

Over/Under -- 40 points (opened at 45)

Ravens (23.75 points) -- The Rams have the eighth-highest opponent situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate (59.5%) and the seventh-highest zone coverage rate. Lamar Jackson ranks fourth in passer rating vs. zone coverage but is 19th vs. zone. He's been significantly more likely to target his tight ends when facing zone, while Zay Flowers has seen his target per route run rate drop from 24% vs. man coverage to 18% vs. zone.

Rams (16.25 points) -- Cooper Kupp was used mostly (70%) in the slot in Week 13, for the second-consecutive week. Prior to the past two games, Kupp's weekly slot rate hovered around 50%.

Week 13 targets:

8 -- Cooper Kupp
7 -- Puka Nacua

Week 13 air yards:

105 -- Nacua
25 -- Kupp

Kupp has failed to top 40 receiving yards in both games since reverting to a short-yardage role, and he hasn't finished above 50 yards in a game since Week 6.

Nacua and Kyren Williams are the only Rams I feel okay starting against the Ravens. Kupp and Matthew Stafford feel like desperation plays against the heavy pressure that is likely to be applied by a Baltimore defense fresh off of its bye week.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 40)

Bengals (23 points) -- In his first action since Week 9, Tee Higgins drew just three targets on 34 routes run. Ja'Marr Chase accounted for 32% of Jake Browning's targets and 46% of the air yards.

I'd expect Chase to again be the focal point of the offense against a Colts defense that uses Cover-3 more (57%) than any defense. Chase has better splits vs. man coverage than zone, but Cover-3 is the clear best-case zone coverage scheme for him to face. For his career, Chase has a 27% target per route run rate vs. Cover-3 and a 22% rate vs. any other zone coverage scheme. In 2023, he's been targeted on 29% of his routes vs. Cover-3.

Colts (21 points) -- The past two matchups (facing the Buccaneers without Jamel Dean and then an undermanned Titans secondary that has been shredded by opposing perimeter receivers) were ideal for Michael Pittman, but Week 14's matchup is more neutral. The Bengals have the fourth-highest opponent slot target rate, which bodes well for Josh Downs.

This matchup still could yield a huge Pittman performance, as the Bengals rank ninth in single-high safety coverage and Pittman has a 31% target per route run rate vs. single-high. Downs has a solid 23% rate. I'd expect Gardner Minshew's target distribution to be even more concentrated on his top two receivers than usual in this spot.

On the ground, Zack Moss should find much more success than he did in Week 13. The Bengals have the ninth-highest missed tackle rate and fifth-highest yard per rush allowed to opposing running backs, and Moss was an every-down back for Indy in Week 13. He's a must-start in a more favorable matchup, don't let last week's dud get you down.

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Over/Under -- 32.5 points (opened at 44.5)

Browns (17.75 points) -- Joe Flacco produced 543 air yards in Week 13, more than any QB in any game and one of just three instances of 500+ air yards all season.

No team has more opponent running back targets than the Jaguars in 2023. That's in part because Jacksonville has the highest opponent situation-neutral pass rate, but also is due to the amount of zone coverage that the Jags use. We'll likely see a lot of Flacco drop backs in Week 14, and more of those might result in Jerome Ford targets after he accounted for one of Flacco's two scores in Week 13.  

Jaguars (14.75 points) -- Parker Washington had a first-read target share of 11% in his Week 13 breakout. In some occasions, a breakout paired with a low first-read rate might actually be a positive. For example, when Jordan Addison was making waves early in the season, it came on a low first-read rate. He was getting open down the field enough that he was still drawing targets and making plays even while not being a focus for the offensive play callers.

In Washington's case, he was simply finding lots of holes in Cincinnati's zones. That's a good trait to have, as zone coverage is used 70% of the time. Washington's Week 14 opponent is the Cleveland Browns, who rank first in the NFL with a 45% man coverage rate.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

Over/Under -- 43.5 points (opened at 46.5)

Bears (20 points) -- The last time that we saw the Bears, Justin Fields fed D.J. Moore a 55% first-read target share.

Also noteworthy: Three of the top four career rushing yardage totals for Fields have come against the Detroit Lions.

Lions (23.5 points) -- The Bears have the fourth-highest opponent RB target rate and are tied for the lowest yards per rush allowed to the RB position. Stylistically, this is clearly a better fit for Jahmyr Gibbs than David Montgomery.

We saw the game script flip 180 degrees for Detroit from Week 12, and so we now have and idea of the range of outcomes for both backs when it comes to usage. Montgomery's snap rate rose from 28% in Week 12 to 61% in Week 13. Even on the road, the Lions are 3.5-point favorites and could build an early lead -- negative plays are always a risk to disrupt Chicago's offense. Another heavy dose of Montgomery (in a return to Chicago to face his former team) is absolutely a realistic outcome. I have Montgomery ranked as the RB9 for half-PPR formats, and Gibbs is the RB10.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over/Under -- 41 points (opened at 43.5)

Falcons (21.5 points) -- On the year, the Buccaneers have one of the highest opponent situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate, at 61%. With Devin White sidelined, Tampa's rate fell to 54% against Carolina in Week 13. Chuba Hubbard rumbled for 104 yards and 2 scores on 25 attempts against the Bucs in Week 13, which was preceded by 146 yards and 2 scores on the ground from the Colts in Week 12. This defense can be run on, and you bet that's what the Falcons want to do.

Bucs (19.5 points) -- The Falcons are not so easy to rush against, even with Grady Jarrett sidelined. Atlanta ranks first in defensive rushing expected points added (EPA) on RB rush attempts.

Atlanta has the third-lowest opponent "out wide" target rate and third-highest opponent slot target rate. Getting Chris Godwin involved feels likely to be a priority after his usage bottomed out in Week 13.

New York Jets vs. Houston Texans

Over/Under -- 33.5 points (opened at 38.5)

Jets (15 points) -- The only team with a lower opponent "out wide" target rate than the Texans are Garrett Wilson's Jets. This is the worst possible matchup for him. Not only does Houston's strong cornerback play limit opposing perimeter receivers, the Texans also employ an "umbrella" defensive strategy with tons of two-high zones that invite opposing offenses to beat them with short plays in the middle of the field.

Texans (18.5 points) -- The Jets have by far the lowest opponent first-read target rate, at 61%. Nico Collins was the first read on 55% of C.J. Stroud's attempts in Week 13. Even if the Jets decrease that rate significantly, it would have a long way to go before we'd have concerns about volume for Collins. I still expect him to be fed double-digit targets in this spot. Stroud has been locked in on Collins when Tank Dell has not been on the field.

Sauce Gardner and company will do their best to make sure that Collins doesn't come down with his targets, but Collins may just be good enough for it to not matter. He's looked incredible at the point of the catch and even better after the catch. Collins has the capability to be one of the highest-scoring players in Fantasy on only a handful of catches.

Outside of Collins and Stroud, Dalton Schultz is the only Texan I feel good about starting with such a low implied team total. He should soak up underneath targets on plays where Stroud doesn't feel inclined to test New York's corners.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under -- 46.5 points (opened at 46.5)

49ers (28.5 points) -- Deebo Samuel's eruption came on surprisingly low usage rates.

This is, of course, a testament to the ability of both Samuel and Kyle Shanahan. For Fantasy purposes, it presents Samuel with a really wide range of outcomes on a week-to-week basis, especially when facing a defense that uses single-high safety coverages more than usual. Brock Purdy has focused mostly on pushing the ball down the field to Brandon Aiyuk when facing single-high coverage.

Seattle's defense has ranked near the top of the league in Cover-3 (and single-high safety coverages as a whole) specifically for most of the year, but we've seen their rates even out more lately. What hasn't changed much is Seattle's overall use of zone coverage, which has hovered around 80% all year. Samuel has produced significantly better vs. zone than man throughout his career, and it would be no surprise for him to see more targets after such an impressive Week 13 showing.

Seattle has the third-lowest opponent first-read target rate thanks to impressive play from their physical press coverage on the outside. Brandon Aiyuk can get free against any coverage, so I'm not downgrading him. But we do have a large sample size of this defense forcing opponents to lean more on second and third reads over the middle of the field. Specifically, Seattle ranks top-12 in both opponent TE targets and yards. George Kittle is an awesome overlooked DFS play who offers leverage off of Christian McCaffrey and the wide receivers.

Seahawks (18 points) -- The 49ers rank second in pressure rate, and the one coverage type tendency that stands out about this defense is a heavy use of Cover-4. Both factors point towards Tyler Lockett being more involved, if Geno Smith's 2023 tendencies are any indication. Lockett has a 30% target per route run rate vs. Cover-4 (69 routes), while DK Metcalf's rate is at 20% and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's is at 18%. Lockett also has been Smith's most-targeted player when pressured, while Smith-Njigba's rate has fallen all the way to 12%.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings

Over/Under -- 40.5 points (opened at 48.5)

Raiders (18.75  points) -- The Vikings blitz at by far the highest rate, and two specific tendencies stood out from the Raiders splits vs. the blitz with Aidan O'Connell at QB:

1. Michael Mayer stays in to block more vs. the blitz

79% -- Mayer's snap rate when blitzed with O'Connell in at QB
40% -- Mayer's route participation when O'Connell was blitzed

Even though Mayer has only been on the field for 64% of O'Connell's non-blitzed plays, he still has a notably higher route participation (57%) within that split.

2. Davante Adams is leaned on even more heavily.

Adams has been targeted on 30% of his routes when O'Connell has not been blitzed, compared to a 35% rate when the rookie QB has been blitzed.

Vikings (21.75 points) -- The Raiders are yet another zone-heavy "umbrella" defense that prioritizes keeping a lid on the defense over all else. Vegas ranks 21st in opponent "out wide" target rate, 26th in opponent first-read target rate and 31st in opponent average depth of target. Stylistically, this is a less than ideal spot for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Last we saw the Vikings in action, Alexander Mattison handled 59% of the offensive snaps and 10 of 14 RB rush attempts (71%).

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Over/Under -- 48.5 points (opened at 51.5)

Chiefs (25 points) -- Rashee Rice registered a 36% first-read target share in his breakout Week 13 performance. The Bills have the third-lowest opponent first-read target rate.

The Bills also employ a zone-heavy umbrella scheme. It's such a fun time to analyze the NFL right now!

Patrick Mahomes has been way more likely to target his running backs when facing two-high safety coverage schemes. Both Travis Kelce and Rice have notably lower target rates vs. two-high, while Isiah Pacheco's rate (26%) is legitimately identical to Kelce's. Oh, and the Bills have the second-highest opponent RB target rate. Maybe Clyde Edwards-Helaire or Jerick McKinnon will save your Fantasy season.

Bills (23.5 points) -- Josh Allen ranks sixth (among 34 qualifiers) in passer rating when blitzed but is 14th when blitzed. Only three teams blitz more often than the Chiefs (39%).

Allen has leaned on Stefon Diggs slightly more when blitzed, and he also has targeted James Cook at a notably higher rate. But Cook's route participation drops from 51% when not blitzed to 39% vs. the blitz. Allen has been less likely to push the ball down the field when blitzed; five of six touchdowns for Gabe Davis have come when Allen has not been blitzed.

On the ground, this looks like a potential eruption spot for Cook. In the two games since Joe Brady took over play calling for Buffalo, Cook has 21 and 23 opportunities. His previous single-game high was 21. The Chiefs rank 27th in defensive rushing EPA and have the second-highest opponent rushing yards per attempt allowed on RB carries.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 45.5)

Chargers (23.25 points) -- The one team with a higher yard per rush allowed rate to opposing running backs? Of course, it's the Denver Broncos. Kansas City's rate is 4.8, and only two other teams have a rate above 4.5. Denver's rate is 5.6.

The Broncos have a 16.4% missed tackle rate on opposing RB rush attempts, the league average is 11.1%.

Austin Ekeler ranks 27th among 39 qualified running backs in avoided tackle rate (15%). He had a 21% rate in 2022. Hopefully Ekeler gets right in this game. It's also entirely possible that Joshua Kelley (12% avoided tackle rate -- 55th among 58 qualifiers) turns in a productive performance. He's not the worst dart throw in this matchup. I'd start Kelley over D'Onta Foreman, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, or Samaje Perine.

Broncos (20.75 points) -- Javonte Williams has not avoided more than two tackles in any of his three most recent games and his season-long avoided tackle rate (16.3%) is way down from his 31.6% rate during the first two seasons of his career.

The Chargers rank middle of the pack in yards per rush allowed and success rate on opposing RB rush attempts and are top-10 in both missed tackle rate and opponent explosive rush rate. Brandon Staley's unit has prioritized stopping the run, and instead opponents have torched this defense through the air.

On opposing wide receiver targets of 10 or more air yards, the Chargers have allowed the fifth-highest passer rating. L.A. has seen the fourth-highest rate of such targets on a per-game basis. This is clearly a slam dunk spot for Courtland Sutton.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Over/Under -- 51.5 points (opened at 48.5)

Cowboys (27.5 points) -- The Eagles have the fourth-highest situation-neutral opponent pass rate (61.8%) and only four teams have allowed fewer rushing yards per game to the RB position. The way to beat this defense is through the air -- particularly, to the middle area of the field. CeeDee Lamb hung 191 yards on this defense in Week 9, and a repeat performance would be no surprise.

Brandin Cooks is the WR14 on a per-game basis over the past month in PPR formats. He does not have a target share above 16% or an air yardage share above 20% in any of the past three Cowboys games. From a volume standpoint, Lamb and Jake Ferguson are the more trustworthy members of this offense.

Eagles (24 points) -- Over the past two years, only Tyreek Hill has a higher target (35.4%) and yard (3.87) per route run rate against man coverage than A.J. Brown (34.3% and 3.52, respectively). The Cowboys rank third in the NFL in man coverage use (38%).

DeVonta Smith's rate (22.6% and 2.05) are not nearly as exciting, nor are his splits with Dallas Goedert on the field. Smith can get loose against any defense, but you won't find him nearly as high in my Week 14 rankings as he has been over the past month.

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers

Over/Under -- 37 points (opened at 37.5)

Giants (15.25 points) -- The Packers have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and no team has a higher situation-neutral opponent rush rate (50%) than Green Bay. This is a prime spot for the Giants to lean on Saquon Barkley.

Packers (21.75 points) -- As highlighted in this space last week, Jordan Love has actually been slightly better and notably less likely to push the ball down the field when blitzed. The Giants are one of just three teams that blitz more (44%) than the Chiefs. We saw Love connect on a handful of downfield shots to his perimeter wide receivers against the Chiefs, so maybe we'll see him again test vertically more. His season-long splits vs. the blitz suggest that Jayden Reed could see more targets in this spot, but last week definitely could be a sign of what's to come.

Christian Watson has yet to practice after pulling up short with what appeared to be a hamstring tweak. Here are Green Bay's splits with Watson on/off the field:

Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans

Over/Under -- 46.5 points (opened at 44.5)

Dolphins (29.75 points) -- Raheem Mostert spent most of the second half of Week 13's game chilling on the sideline. In the first half, he logged a 66% snap rate to De'Von Achane's 41% rate. Mostert rushed nine times to Achane's three first-half carries.

There's a decent probability that we'll get a similar game script in Week 14. I just wanted to point out that Mostert was the clear backfield lead before the game got out of hand.

Titans (16.75 points) -- Will Levis ranks 17th among 34 qualifiers in passer rating when not blitzed. His rate falls to 26th against the blitz. Miami has blitzed at the fourth-lowest rate (21%) in 2023. DeAndre Hopkins has averaged 1.53 yards per route run when Levis has been blitzed, compared to a 2.72 mark when Levis has not been blitzed.

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