Fantasy Football Week 13 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances

The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies. If you're unfamiliar with specific coverage schemes and their impact on opposing offenses, you should check out this Twitter thread in which Gibbs unpacks all of the relevant information for you.

SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme.

In 2022, Gibbs' matchup analysis helped predict A.J. Brown's 155-yard Week 1 output as well the 171-yard and two-touchdown explosion from Gabe Davis in Week 5. In Week 6, Gibbs' matchup data pointed towards Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as being in a terrific spot against Minnesota's Cover-3 and Cover-6 combo, and the Miami duo dropped a combined 53.7 DraftKings points. In Week 7, Gibbs helped DFS players avoid Deebo Samuel's lowest output (9.4 DK points) of the season. In Week 8, Gibbs nailed the DJ Moore bounce-back spot (season-high 30.5 DK points) and was all over the Dolphins stack against a coverage scheme that was susceptible to downfield attacks. Hill, Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa combined for over 100 DK points in that game.

Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game and found seven that stand out. One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: Brandon Aiyuk against a man-heavy Dolphins coverage scheme.

"The Dolphins are much better against the run (12th in rush defense DVOA) than the pass (25th) and bring one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL, blitzing at the sixth-highest rate and using man coverage more than any team but the Giants," Gibbs said. "All of this lines up well for San Francisco's wide receivers -- namely, if looking at 2022's splits vs. man and the biltz, Brandon Aiyuk appears poised for a monster game."

So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And could we see another big performance from Zay Jones, or should we expect Christian Kirk to bounce back? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!

Dream matchups

The Week 12 increase in downfield usage for Zay Jones could yield huge results if sustained in a matchup against Detroit

I am referencing a three-game sample size, so take this with a grain of salt -- Trevor Lawrence has been playing really well over the past month.

Week 12 marked Jacksonville's first game out out of the bye week, and we saw a change in usage for Zay Jones. The Jaguars have shortened Jones's route tree in an unexpected way in 2022. Prior to Week 12, Jones had an average route depth of 8.2 yards and an average depth of target of 7.5 yards. He's never had an average route depth that low in a season, and his career average depth of target is 11.4 yards. 2021 was the best season of his career, and Jones had a career-high 14-yard average depth of target. It's strange that Jacksonville saw that and decided to pay him big money to come play an entirely different role.

But it has worked! 2022 has been the most efficient season of Jones's career to date.

In Week 12, Jones had an average route depth of 9.2 yards. Week 2 was the last time that he had a rate that high, and his average route depth from Week 3 up to the Week 11 bye was just 7.6 yards. In Week 12, his average was up by 21%. The result was a season-high 132 air yards.

I highlight the potential change in his role because the Week 13 matchup against Detroit provides an on-paper boost to downfield route runners. The Lions have the NFL's highest opponent average depth of target by a rather wide margin. On deep targets (15+ air yards) to wide receivers, Detroit has an opponent passer rating of 120.6 -- only the Chicago Bears have allowed a higher rate.

A big reason that opponents have attacked Detroit in this way is their No. 4-ranked man coverage rate (35%) and No. 5-ranked blitz rate (29%). These tendencies both typically boost WR targets, and that has been the case for both Jones and Christian Kirk.

Miami's aggressive defensive scheme will leave its corners on islands against San Francisco's uber-talented wide receivers -- will Jimmy Garoppolo be able to take advantage?

Deebo Samuel has consistently been one of the NFL's most productive receivers against zone coverage, and in 2021, he posted elite rates vs. man coverage for the first time in his career. In 2022, Samuel's rates vs. man coverage have fallen off. Did he get worse? I believe the explanation for Samuel's 2022 dip vs. man coverage has more to do with Brandon Aiyuk than anything that Samuel is doing.

Aiyuk has been playing at a really high level. He might be the most underrated wide receiver in the NFL right now. Indulge me while I attempt to quickly convince you that you don't give Aiyuk the credit that he deserves.

For Fantasy purposes, the results speak for themselves.

Over the past calendar year, Aiyuk has proven to simply be the far better wide receiver than Deebo Samuel.

Aiyuk has drawn more targets and been more productive, and that's with far fewer scripted touches than Samuel. He's just way better at getting open down the field. Deebo Samuel's target per route run rate falls way off on routes developing 5+ yards downfield, and that fact becomes even more pronounced when looking specifically at Samuel's downfield routes that have come against man coverage. Samuel is electric with the ball in his hands, but he still has not proven capable of creating separation and drawing targets down the field. Aiyuk did just that as a rookie. And in Year 3, Aiyuk's underlying data points towards his status as a legitimate WR1 capable of beating any coverage scheme.

Specifically, he lines up especially well against Miami's coverage scheme in Week 13.

Elite efficiency vs. man coverage is a common characteristic of WR1's, as you'll see embodied in the elite caliber of 15 players with a higher yard per route run rate vs. man than Aiyuk in 2022. Another characteristic that WR1's often carry is high target shares in the red zone. Only nine wide receivers have a higher red zone target share than Aiyuk (29%) in 2022.

There are so many data points that paint Aiyuk as an ascending WR1. He's remained productive even with one of the league's worst passers directing a crowded offense yet is still priced reasonably for DFS purposes. In a potential shootout against a man coverage-heavy pass funnel defense, Aiyuk stands out as one of the best WR plays on the board.

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There might be something here

Pat Freiermuth's splits vs. Cover-2 and Cover-3 suggest that a big day could be coming vs. Atlanta

Week 12 a disappointment for Pat Freiermuth, who had built some really awesome usage stats leading up to that game but was only targeted four times for a 14% target share. 14% isn't nearly enough when you are a member of an offense that is at legitimate risk of only producing 174 passing yards on any given week.

Passing yards should be easier to come by in Week 13, as Pittsburgh transitions from a matchup against an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (191) to an Atlanta unit ranked 28th (256). Specifically, Atlanta's heavy use of Cover-3 and Cover-2 line up well for Freiermuth. Cover-3 is the NFL's most commonly used defensive scheme, while Cover-2 is the fourth-most frequently used, so we do have a relatively large sample size of Freiermuth facing these two schemes. Atlanta uses the two schemes 61% of the time defensively, up from the NFL average of 47%.

New York's aggressive defense is one that Terry McLaurin could erupt against

The recipe is there for a big game from Terry McLaurin in Week 13, but as we've seen recently, the offensive environment in Washington can suffocate Fantasy production in even the best matchups. Washington is listed as a 2.5-point road favorite against the Giants in Week 13, and it would be no surprise for the Commanders to again produce fewer than 30 pass attempts (Taylor Heinecke has pass attempt totals of 23, 27, 29, and 28 over his past four games) while leaning on Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson.

McLaurin is dependent on elite efficiency while existing within this offensive environment. Elite efficiency isn't a fair expectation on a week-to-week basis, but it could come this week against the Giants. New York ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA, and they introduce volatility to the equation with the NFL's most aggressive defensive scheme. New York (43%) is the only team that brings the blitz more than 40% of the time. The Giants use man coverage 48% of the time, the next-highest rate is 38%. This is by far the most aggressive defense in the NFL.

The Giants have performed well against the WR position as a whole. Their opponent passer rating when targeting the WR position is actually the second-lowest in the NFL (they've faced one of the easiest WR schedules in the league), and CeeDee Lamb is the only receiver that has recorded 100+ yards against this defense. This is no slam dunk matchup for McLaurin.

There is upside, though. The Giants have the second-highest opponent average depth of target. Teams have decided to attack down the field against this aggressive scheme, and McLaurin's splits suggest that we will likely see something similar in Week 13.

Here are McLaurin's blitz splits:

Target per route run rate
27% -- blitzed
18% -- not blitzed

McLaurin has been 48% more likely to draw a target when his quarterback has been blitzed. In 2022, his target per route run rate is actually slightly higher vs. zone (23%) than man (21%), but he's been more efficient vs. man. And his career rate vs. man (25%) is notably higher than vs. zone (21%).

Given his history of beating man coverage, and his massive target per route run rate (which balloons to 36% on plays when Taylor Heinecke was the QB) when blitzed, I'm providing McLaurin with a decent boost to his projected per-route efficiency in this spot. Unfortunately, the route total is going to fall in the 22-27 range in most scenarios. McLaurin's downfield-oriented route tree enables him to still hit the top of his range of outcomes and be a value at his price tag even in many of those low-route scenarios, but it also provides a realistic path to single-digit DraftKings point production.

Similarly, but even less likely, a Darius Slayton eruption could come against Washington's man-heavy coverage scheme

Darius Slayton is legitimately just 85% arbitrage Terry McLaurin from a projections standpoint in Week 13. His role has been awesome lately. His team prefers to lean on the run. His downfield-oriented route tree presents more volatility than your average wide receiver. And the Commanders defense is similar schematically to New York's, just at less pronounced extremes. At roughly 85% of the price, you can roster roughly 85% of the player, and if you want to roll the dice that both players will hit the top of their range of outcomes and elevate the entire offensive environment, you could consider rostering McLaurin and Slayton together.

The most likely outcome involves at least one of these teams leaning on the ground game and taking only a few shots down the field. The way that these defenses play does invite explosive play opportunities, though.

DeVonta Smith's recent usage makes him an intriguing DFS tournament play against Tennessee's defense

DeVonta Smith has seen massive volume in the two games where the Eagles have been without Dallas Goedert. The passing offense has flowed through Smith, which is something that we have seen in spurts at times in 2022. The way that Smith has cut into A.J. Brown's target rates as a Year 2 player is really eye-opening. Brown hogged targets at a higher rate than any player in the NFL when healthy in 2022. What we saw from Brown prior to 2022 was unbelievable -- the only player in recent memory with comparable rates at such a young age was Calvin Johnson.

His target per route run rate has dropped by 17.5% from Year 3 to Year 4 -- pretty unusual for an ascending 25-year-old wide receiver. I believe it has everything to do with DeVonta Smith.

The statistical picture that Smith has painted over the past three seasons (including his final at Alabama) is bright -- he very well may be one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL. He has displayed flashes of brilliance that rival Brown, and recently, we have seen Philly's target distribution begin to reflect Smith's ability. It feels likely that the underlying volume rates will result in better production soon -- possibly in Week 13 against a Titans pass funnel defense that has been susceptible to the deep ball.

I label Tennessee as a pass funnel because they have the NFL's best statistical rush defense (1st in rush defense DVOA and many other metrics) but rank just 17th in pass defense DVOA. Specifically, Tennessee has struggled against the WR position; only two teams have a higher opponent passer rating on wide receiver targets than the Titans in 2022.

From a schematic standpoint, this matchup lines up well for Jalen Hurts and Smith. The Titans use Cover-4 at the highest rates (25%) in the NFL. Tennessee is also one of just three teams with a Cover-3 rate below 25%.

Hurts has the fourth-highest completion percentage and yards per attempt against Cover-4 but ranks 26th and 25th, respectively, when facing Cover-3. He should benefit from the unusual coverage tendencies of the Titans, and the splits for Smith and Brown on the season suggest that Smith is the wideout who will benefit more. When facing Cover-4, Smith has a 25.5% target per route run rate to Brown's 17.8% rate.

The Eagles are 5.5-point home favorites and may not feel a need to attack aggressively down the field. Smith brings explosive upside in this matchup if they do, though, and he's still affordable at just $6,200 on DraftKings and an egregious $6,800 FanDuel salary.

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