Fantasy Football Week 12: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including another potential eruption spot for DeVonta Smith

If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 12 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One player Gibbs is especially high on: Philadelphia Eagles star wideout DeVonta Smith. The specific coverage tendencies of Buffalo's defense line up quite well for Smith to build some momentum after a big Week 11. You NEED to see Gibbs' full analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 12? And which under-the-radar running back could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.

Unless stated otherwise, all data referenced in this article comes from TruMedia or FantasyPoints.com. TruMedia is not publicly available, you can check out the FP Data Suite here. FantasyPoints CEO Scott Barrett joined Heath Cummings and me on Fantasy Football Today for a discussion about all of the tools that the Data Suite has to offer, if you're curious!

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 12.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Over/Under -- 47.5 points (opened at 45)

Texans (23 points) -- The Jaguars use Cover-3 at the fourth-highest rate (45%) in the NFL, and Tank Dell has been targeted on 32.2% of his routes run vs. Cover-3. For reference, here's where that ranks him within that specific coverage split:

Target per route run rate leaders vs. Cover-3:

33.7% -- Davante Adams
33.3% -- Stefon Diggs
33.3% -- Keenan Allen
32.2% -- Tank Dell
31.7% -- Garrett Wilson

Among 40 qualified receivers (100+ routes vs. Cover-3), only five have a target per route run rate above 30%.

Nico Collins has also been great vs. Cover-3. Both receivers bring explosive upside into a potential shootout against the Jaguars.

Jaguars (24.5 points) -- The Texans have the second-lowest opponent "out wide" target rate and the sixth-highest opponent slot target rate. Houston's "umbrella" zone coverages funnel targets to the middle of the field. Specifically, the Texans rank seventh in Cover-4 use and 10th in Cover-6 use. Those are two uncommon schemes -- the NFL average combined Cover-4/Cover-6 rate is just 24%, but Houston's combined rate is 34%.

Christian Kirk has 90 routes run vs. Cover-4/Cover-6, while Evan Engram and Calvin Ridley each have 86. Displayed below are the respective splits for each player when facing Cover-4/Cover-6.

Kirk -- 23 targets, 16 receptions, 257 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns
Engram -- 19 targets, 15 receptions, 84 receiving yards
Ridley -- 10 targets, 5 receptions, 47 receiving yards

Ridley has just a 12% target per route run rate and 0.55 yard per route run rate vs. Cover-4/Cover-6. Week 12 brings yet another horrendous schematic fit for him.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under -- 35.5 points (opened at 45.5)

Bengals (17 points) -- Pittsburgh has an opponent situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate of 60%, the eighth-highest in the NFL. Pittsburgh has allowed a lot of rushing yards because opponents are often playing with a lead against this defense, but their advanced defensive metrics against the run are mostly middle of the pack or better. The path of least resistance against this defense has been through the air, and we've seen those opponent targets fixate on "out wide" receivers against a Steelers defense that leaves its cornerbacks isolated often by using Cover-1 at the fourth-highest rate. The Steelers have the sixth-highest opponent "out wide" target rate (46%), but it is worth noting that that rate is at 42% since rookie corner Joey Porter Jr. has taken over as a full-time starter.

Since Porter Jr. has taken over, the Steelers have the ninth-highest opponent slot target rate. We may see a heavy helping of short-yardage targets for Tyler Boyd in this spot if Jake Browning doesn't feel comfortable testing Porter Jr. down the field. Ja'Marr Chase projects as a much more volatile play than usual in Week 12. He certainly could go for a big game with the additional opportunities against man coverage, but it's also well within his range of outcomes to finish with fewer than 50 yards in this spot.

Steelers (18.5 points) -- The Bengals have the sixth-highest missed tackle rate the fourth-lowest defensive rushing expected points added (EPA), and the fifth-highest opponent yard per rush allowed to running backs. Cincinnati is also one of just four defenses with an opponent explosive rush (12+ yards) rate of 10% or higher. This feels like another Jaylen Warren eruption spot.

Tennessee Titans vs. Carolina Panthers

Over/Under -- 36.5 points (opened at 38.5)

Titans (20 points) -- The Panthers haven't allowed a 200+ yard passer since Week 6; during that time, Carolina has faced Dak Prescott, Tyson Bagent, Gardner Minshew, and C.J. Stroud. Carolina hasn't allowed a QB to throw for 300+ yards all season.

The disparity between Carolina's pass defense and rush defense has resulted in the league's worst defensive rushing EPA. The Panthers rank behind even the Denver Broncos, a defense allowing 138 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs (87.5 is the league average). Opponents know that the ground game is the way to attack this defense, as evidenced in a league-high 49% opponent rush rate.

Of course, the Titans are happy to run the ball when not being blown out. On paper, this as obvious of a Derrick Henry game as we're going to get all year.

Panthers (16.5 points) -- The Titans rank sixth in rush defense EPA, eighth in rush defense success rate, and are one of 13 defenses allowing fewer than 4.0 yards per attempt on opponent RB rushes. The way to attack this defense is through the air -- only the Washington Commanders have a higher opponent passer rating allowed than Tennessee.

Tennessee's coverage tendencies are mostly in line with the NFL average. One notable takeaway -- the Titans blitz only 24% of the time (22nd) and rank 24th in pressure rate (32%). Bryce Young has been much worse when pressured as a rookie. He should have time to find Adam Thielen repeatedly in this spot. The Titans have a league-high 79% first-read target rate, yet another data point that clearly supports Thielen's outlook in this matchup.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Over/Under -- 42 points (opened at 44)

Falcons (21.5 points) -- The Saints use press coverage at the fourth-highest rate (73%), and Drake London has dominated press coverage in his second season. London has a 30% target per route run rate and 2.31 yards per route run vs. press coverage in 2023, which is encouraging after a lackluster showing against press as a rookie. London also is great against man coverage, which New Orleans uses at the eighth-highest rate (33%).

Reminder: the last time that we saw Bijan Robinson in action, his usage was by far the best that it had been all season.

Bijan Robinson's route participation:
85% -- Week 10
66% -- Weeks 1-9

Bijan Robinson's RB rush share:
65% -- Week 10
44% -- Weeks 1-9

Bijan Robinson's red zone snap rate:
75% -- Week 10
46% -- Weeks 1-9

Robinson saw Atlanta's only two rush attempts from inside the 10-yard line and scored a short-yardage touchdown. If this type of usage sustains for Robinson out of Atlanta's bye week, he would project as a top-eight Fantasy RB even in a difficult matchup against the Saints.

Saints (20.5 points) -- The Falcons are one of the three teams that use press coverage more than the Saints, ranking first with an 81% press coverage rate.

Michael Thomas has been the best press coverage beater for New Orleans, and he will miss this game. Fill-in rookie A.T. Perry has the size to beat press coverage, but he's a rookie and facing a Falcons defense that has stifled outside receivers. Chris Olave has produced efficiently (2.52 yards per route run) when pressed in 2023, but his target per route run rate has fallen from 26.3% when not pressed to 20.9% when pressed.

Chris Olave's career splits vs. press coverage:

Target per route run rate

21% -- Facing press coverage
28% -- No press coverage

Yards per route run

1.96 -- Facing press coverage
2.16 -- No press coverage

Only 38% of Atlanta's opponent targets have gone to the "out wide" receiver, the fourth-lowest rate. Atlanta's 14.6% "in-line" tight end opponent target rate is easily the highest mark in the NFL.

Running backs have not been targeted at a high rate (25th) against the Falcons, but Atlanta hasn't faced many pass-catching threats out of the backfield. Rachaad White caught six of six targets for 65 yards against this defense, making him the only back with 50+ receiving yards vs. Atlanta.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 41.5)

Colts (23.25 points) -- Tampa Bay's already struggling defense will be without linebacker Lavonte David and top corner Jamel Dean in Week 12, and linebacker Devin White is a game-time decision.

The main tendency that stands out about Tampa's defense is a 40% blitz rate that ranks third behind only the Giants and Vikings.

The Bucs have the NFL's seventh-highest opponent situation-neutral pass rate, as this is a well-established pass-funnel defense. Things could change if both starting linebackers miss Week 12, leaving the door open for a potentially huge Jonathan Taylor game.

Josh Downs was really coming into his own as a playmaker prior to a knee injury slowing his roll. Across Weeks 7-10, Downs posted a 25% target per route run rate and 3.17 yards per route run -- elite numbers for Downs, who was an elite producer at the collegiate level. When all three of Minshew, Downs, and Pittman have been on the field together (202 routes), Downs has more receptions (34 to 31), receiving yards (397 to 333) and receiving touchdowns (2 to 1) than Pittman. Josh Downs is a baller.

We could see a post-bye rookie bump for Downs if his knee is feeling healthier. While the matchup lines up more favorably for Pittman, Downs also is positioned well -- the Bucs have the seventh-highest opponent slot target rate. I have Pittman ranked as WR9 for Week 12, while Downs comes in at WR25.

Bucs (20.75 points) -- The Colts use Cover-3 at the highest rate (55%), and Mike Evans has crushed Cover-3 in 2023. Well, more accurately, Baker Mayfield has crushed Cover-3 -- the Bucs pass-catching options have seen a boost across the board against Cover-3. Among 21 quarterbacks with 100+ attempts vs. Cover-3, Mayfield ranks sixth in off-target rate, completion rate, and yards per attempt.

Target per route run rate vs. Cover-3:
(In parentheses, you'll find their TPRR vs. all other coverage types)

28% -- Mike Evans (25%)
26% -- Chris Godwin (21%)
19% -- Rachaad White (15%)
13% -- Cade Otton (14%)
7% -- Trey Palmer (16%)

Yard per route run rate vs. Cover-3:
(In parentheses, you'll find their TPRR vs. all other coverage types)  

3.34 -- Evans (2.14)
2.73 -- White (0.74)
1.87 -- Godwin (1.57)
0.86 -- Otton (0.90)
0.53 -- Palmer (0.82)

On paper, this appears to be a matchup that Mayfield will find success in. He should concentrate his target distribution around his top three playmakers even more than usual.

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots

Over/Under -- 34 points (opened at 43.5)

Giants (15.5 points) -- The Patriots haven't allowed more than 53 receiving yards to a running back in 2023, and only 14% of opponent targets have gone to the RB position (10th-lowest). A league-high 41% man coverage rate is likely the culprit, as running backs are far more likely to be targeted vs. zone coverage.

Saquon Barkley's target per route run rate vs. man coverage:

16.9% -- Career rate
17.5% -- 2023 rate

Saquon Barkley's target per route run rate vs. zone coverage:

23.8% -- Career rate
21.8% -- 2023 rate

Patriots (19 points) -- Rhamondre Stevenson's seen 56% rush attempts come from man/gap rushing concepts; only Kyren Williams (71%), Tony Pollard (71%), and James Cook (59%) have higher rates, for reference. The Giants have allowed the fourth-highest yards per man/gap concept rush attempt.

The Giants have the third-highest opponent slot target rate. Demario Douglas worked primarily in the slot (77% rate) prior to Week 9, when he was needed to work primarily (65%) from the outside. In Week 10, Douglas ran 48% of his routes from the slot and 52% from the slot. JuJu Smith-Schuster ran only 13% of his routes from the slot.

While Douglas is primarily a slot receiver and is listed at only 5-foot-8 and 170 pounds, he's drawn targets at a really high rate (30%) against man coverage. Typically, slot receivers are thought of as zone-busters, and that may be the role that Douglas settles into, but the early signal against man coverage is encouraging.

I think that we're going to see a ton of Douglas in this game, as the Giants rank third in man coverage rate (39%) and second in blitz rate (43%). Who else is a logical candidate to soak up quick targets against this aggressive defense? Smith-Schuster running empty routes on the outside? Hunter Henry? Henry has just a 13% target per route run vs. man coverage and a 12% rate vs. the blitz.

Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns

Over/Under -- 36 points (opened at 42)

Broncos (18.75 points) -- The Broncos rank 27th in yards before contact per rush (1.04) offensively. Javonte Williams has earned 76% of his total rushing yards after initial contact, the fourth-highest rate among 50 qualifiers.

The Browns have allowed just 0.45 yards before contact per rush, by far the lowest rate in the NFL. The next-lowest rate is 0.80, and the league average is 1.25. Cleveland's 4.00 yards allowed after contact per rush is easily the highest mark in the league. The Browns rank second in missed tackle rate (16%) against opposing RB rushers.

At North Carolina in 2020, Williams accumulated the highest single-season avoided tackle rate (minimum 150 attempts) among running backs drafted into the NFL during the time that I have the data (2017-2023). He then led the NFL in avoided tackle rate as a rookie in 2021. In 2022, his avoided tackle rate was even higher before he tore his ACL. Williams is right around league average in avoided tackle rate in 2023, but he has avoided multiple tackles in all but one of his past five games.

The passing matchup for Denver is brutal, there's no way around it. For what it's worth, Russell Wilson has performed well against pressure in 2023. He has the second-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate, a league-low off-target rate, and a completion percentage that is 15% above average when pressured. This might not be a complete offensive implosion against Cleveland's defense, as I originally assumed it would be.

Browns (17.25 points) -- The Broncos have a hard-to-believe 18% missed tackle rate against running backs in 2023. The next-lowest rate is 16%, and the league average is 11%. Jerome Ford (20% avoided tackle rate in 2023) has avoided at least three tackles in each of his past three games, while Kareem Hunt (7%) has avoided just six tackles all season.

The biggest beneficiary of Denver's shoddy tackling may actually be David Njoku, who ranks 12th among all pass-catchers in avoided tackles and is coming off of a 15-target game in Week 11. Dorian Thompson-Robinson's average depth of target was below four yards in Week 11, and if he and the Browns playcallers aren't comfortable attacking down the field, we may see another heavy helping of Njoku targets against the Broncos.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams

Over/Under -- 44.5 points (opened at 43)

Cardinals (21.75 points) -- The Rams have the sixth-highest opponent "in-line" tight end target rate and fifth-highest opponent slot target rate. Trey McBride (26.7% target per route run rate) trails only Travis Kelce (27.6%) among qualified tight ends, and his 2.20 yard per route run rate actually just edges out Kelce's 2.19 yard mark. It could be another massive game for McBride against L.A.'s zone-heavy defense.

This does not feel like a great schematic fit for Marquise Brown, as the Rams rank top-four in both Cover-4 and Cover-6 use, and Hollywood has just an 18% target per route run rate and 1.00 yards per route run vs. those schemes. McBride's rates climb to 31% and 2.68 vs. Cover-4/6.

Rams (22.75 points) -- The Cardinals have funneled 51% of opponent targets to the "out wide" receivers; the next-highest rate is 48%. Cooper Kupp has spent more time out wide than in past seasons, but he still has just a 49% "out wide" rate.

When these two teams faced off in Week 6, it was Kupp (7-148-1 on 9 targets) who produced, while Puka Nacua turned his seven targets into just a 4-26 receiving line.

Either or both Rams WR could go off in this spot, as the Cardinals rank dead last in pressure rate and are 30th in blitz rate, and Matthew Stafford performs notably better when kept clean.

On the ground, Kyren Williams could pick right back up where he left off. For what it's worth, the Cardinals defense has performed better against man/gap concept rushes, ranking middle of the pack. The Rams are easily the most man/gap-heavy rushing offense in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills

Over/Under -- 48.5 points (opened at 50.5)

Eagles (25.75 points) -- The Bills have used two-high middle of the field closed safety coverages at the fourth-highest rate, and DeVonta Smith has actually outproduced A.J. Brown from a yards per route run perspective when facing such safety coverage. Smith saw a notably higher first-read target rate than Brown in Week 11, and we all know how much his target rate has increased without Dallas Goedert on the field -- Smith could again go on a rampage for Fantasy managers to close out the season.

Bills (22.75 points) -- James Cook ranks second in the percentage (61%) of total rushes that have come from man/gap concepts, and he's averaging 5.6 yards per man/gap concept rush compared to 4.1 on zone rushes. The only team that has a better defensive rushing success rate vs. man/gap concept runs than the Philadelphia Eagles is the Buffalo Bills.

The Eagles defense ranks seventh in single-high safety coverage use, which often leads to huge games for stud WR1-types like Stefon Diggs. Josh Allen has struggled uncharacteristically against single-high in 2023, ranking 16th in passer rating and just 24th in average depth of target vs. single-high coverage. Stefon Diggs has seen a boost in targets and yard per route run efficiency vs. single-high, but not to the extent that I expected.

Philadelphia's opponent "out wide" target rate ranks just 18th, but the Eagles have the second-highest opponent slot target rate. Week 12 could deliver another big Khalil Shakir showing.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under -- 43 points (opened at 45)

Raiders (17.25 points) -- The Chiefs use press coverage at the second-highest rate (79%) in the NFL, and we've seen Kansas City's physical cornerback play limit the efficiency of A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and Calvin Ridley. Jakobi Meyers has averaged only 1.09 yards per route run vs. press coverage in 2023, and while Davante Adams has seen an increase in targets vs. press, his yard per route run rate has fallen from 2.23 to 1.78.

The way to attack Kansas City's defense has been on the ground, and Antonio Pierce has been vocal about his desire to re-commit to the ground game. I'd expect a ton of Josh Jacobs in a matchup against a Kansas City defense ranked third-worst in defensive rushing EPA.

Chiefs (25.75 points) -- Kansas City has struggled to create yards before contact on the ground, ranking just 28th. Running lanes could be easier to find against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fifth-most yards before contact per attempt. Las Vegas has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (110) to opposing running backs and ranks fourth-worst in defensive rushing EPA.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens

Over/Under -- 48 points (opened at 44)

Chargers (22.5 points) -- Justin Herbert ranks 14th in passer rating and has an above average turnover-worthy throw rate when pressured in 2023. I worry about L.A.'s passing game against an aggressive Baltimore defense. The Ravens rank seventh in pressure rate and in press coverage rate, and Herbert is missing his best and third-best press coverage beaters in Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer.

Jared Goff is the only QB to top 250 yards passing against this Ravens defense, and it took him 53 attempts to get to 280 passing yards. This is a brutal spot for Herbert. I'm comfortable starting both Kyler Murray and Justin Fields over him in Week 12.

Ravens (26 points) -- Without Mark Andrews, Baltimore's passing game has centered more around Odell Beckham Jr.

Beckham is listed as a game-time decision for Week 12, so this may end up being irrelevant. Some member of Baltimore's passing attack is likely to be relevant, though, as this Chargers defense has surrendered tons of big plays to opposing passing games.

Zay Flowers has seen a slight boost with Andrews sidelined, and we saw Baltimore's offensive gameplan center around the rookie without Andrews in Week 1. Rashod Bateman has seen his route participation spike in each of the past two weeks, but he's not doing much with the additional opportunities. The other name to consider is fill-in tight end Isaiah Likely. In 2022, Likely produced at a high level without Andrews on the field. He didn't have Flowers (or anyone, really) to compete for targets with, and we've seen Likely's per-route data fall off a cliff in his second season. If desperate at TE, Likely is worth rolling the dice on in this matchup, especially if OBJ misses the game.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Over/Under -- 43 points (opened at 44)

Vikings (23.25 points) -- These two defenses have the lowest pressure rates in the NFL, with Minnesota (29%) ranking dead last and Chicago (30%) coming in 31st. Since acquiring Montez Sweat, Chicago has a 34% pressure rate, which would rank 19th over the course of the full season.

Joshua Dobbs ranks 16th of 35 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating when pressured and has a league-high turnover-worth throw rate vs. pressure. He hasn't been much better when not pressured, but the turnover-worthy throw rate has come way down. The problem is that Dobbs simply is not accurate -- only Kenny Pickett has a higher off-target rate when kept clean.

What really stood out when digging into Dobbs' pressure rate stats was that 34% of his targets have gone to the tight end position when kept clean, up from a league average of 20%. That comes on a 259 dropback sample size!

T.J. Hockenson has a massive 33% target per route run rate with Dobbs at QB (up from 24% without Dobbs), and on a 60-route sample during which Dobbs was kept clean, Hockenson has a 45% target per route run rate.

Bears (19.75 points) -- Justin Fields has not been impacted by the blitz as much in 2023, ranking middle of the pack in most metrics when blitzed. His top target when blitzed has of course been D.J. Moore, and Moore has produced a wild 13 receptions and 261 yards on 17 targets when Fields has been blitzed. No defense blitzes more than the Minnesota Vikings.

Overall, the return of Fields at QB is an extremely bullish signal for Moore. The splits for Moore with Fields at QB in 2023 are pretty ridiculous.

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