Fantasy Football Week 12 lineup advice: Using coverage scheme data to project breakout performances
The next wave of Fantasy football matchup analysis is here, and it involves focusing on defensive coverage scheme tendencies. If you're unfamiliar with specific coverage schemes and their impact on opposing offenses, you should check out this Twitter thread in which Gibbs unpacks all of the relevant information for you.
SportsLine Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs put an emphasis on quarterback and receiver performance when facing specific types of coverages in 2020, and it helped him predict massive performances such as Tyreek Hill's 60.9-point performance on DraftKings in Week 12 and Davante Adams' 47.6-point performance in Week 7. In 2021, this coverage analysis pointed Gibbs towards Ja'Marr Chase and Mike Williams before their eruptions for 58.6 and 36.2 points on DraftKings, respectively, against Kansas City's man-heavy coverage scheme.
In 2022, Gibbs' matchup analysis helped predict A.J. Brown's 155-yard Week 1 output as well the 171-yard and two-touchdown explosion from Gabe Davis in Week 5. In Week 6, Gibbs' matchup data pointed towards Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as being in a terrific spot against Minnesota's Cover-3 and Cover-6 combo, and the Miami duo dropped a combined 53.7 DraftKings points. In Week 7, Gibbs helped DFS players avoid Deebo Samuel's lowest output (9.4 DK points) of the season. In Week 8, Gibbs nailed the DJ Moore bounce-back spot (season-high 30.5 DK points) and was all over the Dolphins stack against a coverage scheme that was susceptible to downfield attacks. Hill, Waddle, and Tua Tagovailoa combined for over 100 DK points in that game.
Coverage scheme information is among the many data points that go into Gibbs's process; he uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past three seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.
Now, Gibbs has analyzed the coverage scheme matchups for every game and found seven that stand out. One matchup Gibbs is especially excited for: Terry McLaurin against a Falcons defense that has struggled against opposing number one receivers.
"Atlanta has really increased its Cover-3 usage lately, and we know that top targets typically get fed when facing Cover-3," Gibbs said. "Terry McLaurin's volume rates have been among the best in the NFL since Taylor Heinecke took over, and he could easily see double digit targets funneled his way against Atlanta's coverage scheme."
So which players stand to benefit the most from their specific schematic matchups? And could Tee Higgins be a DFS tournament-winner against a Titans defense that is susceptible to the deep ball? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly Fantasy Football Man/Zone Helper, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts!
Dream matchups
Terry McLaurin gets back on track after low-volume day vs. Texans
Atlanta has really increased its Cover-3 usage lately, and we know that top targets typically get fed when facing Cover-3. Only seven teams use Cover-3 more than the Falcons (41%), and their rate sits at 49% over the past month.
Terry McLaurin's volume rates have been among the best in the NFL since Taylor Heinecke took over, and he could easily earn double digit targets funneled his way against Atlanta's coverage scheme. We don't have a ton of data on McLaurin facing Cover-3 with Heinecke at quarterback, but what we do have certainly backs this notion up.
McLaurin has been targeted on 18 of 49 routes vs. Cover-3 with Heinecke at QB in 2022, good for a massive 36.7% target per route run rate. For reference, his rate against all other coverage schemes is 23.4%. If we expand the data subset to include the 2021 season, McLaurin has run 214 routes vs. Cover-3 with Heinecke at QB. He has a 27.6% target per route run rate within that subset.
The matchup is great. Atlanta has really struggled against the pass, ranking 28th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in passer rating allowed on wide receiver targets. Their recent increase in Cover-3 use could funnel targets towards McLaurin at an even higher rate than we've seen lately. My only concern is that it won't matter how high his target rates are if the Commanders continue to pass so infrequently. Washington's defense has really stepped it up lately and the Commanders have found themselves playing with leads and the ability to control games on the ground. As a result, we haven't seen more than 30 pass attempts from Heinecke in any of the past three games. The Falcons are only implied for 18.25 points against Washington in Week 12, so it's entirely possible that there won't be enough raw passing volume to support the type of truly massive performance that McLaurin could put up in this matchup.
Tee Higgins set to pile onto last week's 148-yard performance against another coverage scheme that struggles against downfield passing
It sounds as if Ja'Marr Chase has a realistic shot at returning in Week 12, but that doesn't in any way deter me from wanting to use Tee Higgins at just $6,900 on DraftKings. Higgins looked the healthiest that he has all season coming out of Cincinnati's bye, and a healthy Higgins is nearly unstoppable. In Week 11, Higgins piled up 148 yards on 13 targets against a Steelers coverage unit that is similar to the Titans unit that will attempt to slow his roll in Week 12.
Only two teams have a higher average opponent time to throw (2.89 seconds) than Tennessee. Teams have taken their time and attacked down the field against this defense, and they've found success when doing so. Tennessee's opponent passer rating on deep (15+ air yards) targets to the wide receiver position is the fifth-highest in the NFL.
Tee Higgins has been the clear beneficiary on pass attempts where Joe Burrow took at least 2.89 seconds to throw. Below, you can check out Cincinnati's per-route rates on such attempts since the start of the 2021 season.
Cincinnati WR target per route run rate when Burrow had +2.89 seconds to throw
(2021-22)
31% -- Tee Higgins
21% -- Ja'Marr Chase
16% -- Tyler Boyd
Cincinnati WR yard per route run rate when Burrow had +2.89 seconds to throw
(2021-22)
3.55 -- Tee Higgins
2.67 -- Ja'Marr Chase
1.50 -- Tyler Boyd
Only Mark Andrews and A.J. Brown have a higher target per route run rate within this subset, while Tyler Lockett, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp are the only players with a higher yard per route run rate than Higgins when their QB had 2.89 or more seconds to throw.
Cover-3-heavy Browns defense offers Mike Evans massive potential
Cleveland is one of 10 teams that uses Cover-3 on more than 40% of defensive plays, and their Cover-3 has been particularly soft. The Browns have an opponent passer rating of 101.2 when using Cover-3 which is 15% above the league's Cover-3 average -- only five teams have a higher rate. On wide receiver targets against Cleveland's Cover-3, opponents have an average passer rating of 110.6, the fourth-highest in the NFL. And on deep wide receiver targets vs. Cover-3, that rate is all the way up to 124.3.
This brings us to the 2022 Cover-3 splits for Tom Brady and Mike Evans. The Bucs are attacking Cover-3 differently than we've seen before. If I had to guess, this change is attributable to the shortening of Chris Godwin's route tree. Previously, the Bucs have attacked Cover-3 through intermediate targets to Godwin and Antonio Brown. In 2022, Godwin is filling a different role and AB is out of the picture, so we've seen a massive spike in the per-route rates for Mike Evans against Cover-3.
Mike Evans vs. Cover-3 (2020-21):
Target per route run rate -- 21.2%
Yard per route run rate -- 2.02
Mike Evans vs. Cover-3 (2022):
Target per route run rate -- 26.6%
Yard per route run rate -- 2.60
Tom Brady has the sixth-highest passer rating vs. Cover-3 in 2022 and looked a lot better in Tampa's final game before the Week 11 bye. This feels like a terrific spot to buy in on the Bucs at depressed salaries.
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There might be something here
Nico Collins could get behind aggressive Miami man coverage
If you've been checking in on this article with any regularity, you are familiar with Miami's defense. We have been aggressively targeting this unit all year. The Dolphins bring one of the NFL's most aggressive defensive approaches, and teams that bring this type of defensive approach (heavy blitz and man coverage use) simply leave themselves more susceptible to big plays. Particularly, top wide receivers usually are positioned for success against these types of defenses as they are often left in one-on-one situations in space.
Of course, Nico Collins isn't quite a Davante Adams or A.J. Brown caliber of separator, but he does bring encouraging splits against man coverage and the blitz. Year 2 has been a super encouraging one for Collins, and the Texans have treated him like their WR1 when he has been healthy.
Nico Collins vs. the blitz in 2022:
Target per route run rate
30% -- Blitzed
15% -- Not blitzed
Yard per route run rate
2.17 -- Blitzed
1.58 -- Not blitzed
Nico Collins man/zone splits in 2022:
Target per route run rate
23% -- Man
21% -- Zone
Yard per route run rate
1.91 -- Man
1.83 -- Zone
The Texans prefer to attack on the ground, but in this matchup more than just about any other, they should be expected to take to the air. Miami is one of the league's truest pass funnels, ranking ninth in rush defense DVOA but just 29th against the pass, and their offense puts so much pressure on opponents that the result is often a shootout through the air. The Texans are massive 14-point road dogs in this spot and will almost certainly be forced to abandon the run at some point. If we can get 35+ attempts out of Houston's offense in this spot, Nico Collins could very well end up with one of the highest target and air yardage totals of any player in Week 12. You can't ask for much more than that from a player at his price point.
DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker primed for big performances against Las Vegas
The Raiders use man coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL, and any time that he is in a matchup where he may see more man coverage looks than usual, DK Metcalf needs to be mentioned in this space. His splits vs. man coverage are ridiculously pronounced.
DK Metcalf man/zone splits:
(Geno Smith at QB 2021-22)
Target per route run rate
34% -- Man
22% -- Zone
Yard per route run rate
2.96 -- Man
1.94 -- Zone
Metcalf has been 55% more likely to draw a target vs. man than zone coverage!
The other aspect of this matchup that clearly stands out is that the Raiders funnel targets to the running back position. When not using man coverage, the Raiders have an opponent average depth of target of just 5.4 yards -- the league average depth of target vs. zone is 7.3 yards, for reference, and only one other team (San Francisco -- 5.8 yards) has a rate below 6 yards.
Specifically, the RB position has a 24% target per route run rate vs. the Raiders in 2022, up from the league average of 18.5%. Running backs have been nearly 30% more likely to draw a target against Josh McDaniels' defense.
We saw Kenneth Walker fill an expanded receiving role in Seattle's final game before the Week 11 bye -- the result was a season-high 55 receiving yards on 8 targets for the rookie. With an increase in his receiving projection, Walker carries the potential to finish as the slate's highest scoring RB on any given week. With Seattle implied for 25.75 points against a struggling Raiders defense, it should come as no surprise to see that type of a performance from Walker, especially if he retains the route running responsibilities that he handled in Week 10.
Mark Andrews lines up quite nicely against a struggling Jaguars coverage scheme
The Jaguars are down to 31st in pass defense DVOA on the year, which is wild with how well they played to open the season. This could be a perfect get-right spot for Lamar Jackson, who has been struggling nearly as much as Jacksonville's defense recently.
When examining Jacksonville's defense, nothing really stands out from a schematic standpoint. The Jaguars get pressure at a slightly above average rate but don't bring the blitz at a high rate. They're middle of the pack in man coverage rate, and nothing stands out about their opponent average depth of target or time to throw. The Jags use three schemes at a slightly above average rate -- Cover-1, Cover-2, and Cover-3 make up 74.1% of their defensive plays, up from the NFL average of 67.2%.
Among 97 players with 150+ routes run vs. those coverage schemes in 2022, only Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown have drawn targets at a higher per-route rate than Mark Andrews.
Mark Andrews vs. Cover-1, Cover-2, or Cover-3:
(2022)
32% -- Target per route run rate
2.61 -- Yard per route run rate
Mark Andrews vs. any coverage scheme other than Cover-1, Cover-2, or Cover-3:
(2022)
21% -- Target per route run rate
1.36 -- Yard per route run rate
That's a massive difference. So, I looked at his career splits, and they told a similar story. Throughout his career, Andrews has performed the best when facing Cover-3 or Cover-1 -- true alpha stuff. Beyond that, Andrews has still produced efficiently when facing Cover-4 and Cover-2, while his rates have fallen way off against Cover-6 and Cover-0. The Jags use those two schemes on just 10% of defensive plays; on paper, this is an ideal fit for Andrews to max out his efficiency.
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