Fantasy Football Week 11: Stats that matter when setting lineups, including a potential bounce-back spot for Calvin Ridley

If you're doing your Fantasy football research or scouring the Internet for Fantasy rankings, you need to see what SportsLine's highly-rated expert Jacob Gibbs has to say. Gibbs uses a data-driven approach that has helped him consistently provide accurate rankings at every position. He has proven to be one of the nation's most accurate Fantasy rankers in recent years -- posting the eighth-most accurate results over the past few seasons, according to Fantasy Pros.

Now, Gibbs has projected every team's stats and shared his findings for Week 11 of the 2023 season. He provided the most important research note that he found for every team and matchup to help those setting Fantasy football lineups, building DFS lineups, or placing sports bets.

One player Gibbs is especially high on: Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Ridley has been a disappointment in his first year with the Jags, but has been targeted at a notably high rate against defenses that profile similarly to this Titans unit. You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 11? And which under-the-radar running back could explode this week? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' analytics wraparound, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

In this space, I'll provide game information and one key takeaway that I found when researching that matchup. Each team's implied point total will be in parentheses. 

If you have further questions about any team or situation for the upcoming week, please feel free to hit me up on Twitter. If I don't see your initial message, you can find me on Thursday nights and Sunday mornings, when I set aside time to answer questions on Twitter. If you turn on Twitter notifications for my account, you'll have a great chance of catching me when I'm available for questions.

Here's what stood out to me as I looked ahead to Week 11.

Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Over/Under -- 42 points (opened at 41, meaning bettors have hit the Over this week)

Panthers (15.75 points) -- Only three defenses have a pressure rate above 40% -- the Browns, Jets, and Cowboys. Of that group, Dallas (47.6%) has sat atop the leaderboard all year long.

When pressured, Bryce Young has averaged a hard-to-believe 3.6 yards per attempt. That rate ties him with Daniel Jones for the worst in the league, and no other QB has a rate below five yards. This is, of course, a horrendous spot for the Panthers offense.

Two more Panthers notes:

1. Chuba Hubbard's snap rate fell from 65% to 48% from Week 9 to Week 10. Miles Sanders (19) actually finished with more routes run than Hubbard (13).

2. Adam Thielen has crushed man coverage (2.51 yards per route run vs. man ranks 13th) and the Cowboys rank third in man coverage use. He is the only Panther worth starting.

Cowboys (26.25 points) -- Defensive rushing expected points added (EPA) measures how a defense performs against the rush relative to expectation on any given play. Passing the ball is more efficient than running the ball, so the expected points added on any given rush is actually negative for the offense and positive for the defense. The average defensive rushing EPA in 2023 is 2.51, and all but one team has a positive rate through 10 weeks.

The Carolina Panthers are the one team with a negative rate -- rushing the ball has actually been a winning strategy for offenses facing the Panthers. And rush the ball is exactly what Carolina's opponents have chosen to do -- the Panthers are the only team with an opponent rush rate above 50%. Carolina's opponents have rushed 30.6 times for 131.9 yards per game.

Over the past month, CeeDee Lamb is first in expected Fantasy points per game (FantasyPoints Data Suite model), and it's not close between him (27.3 XFP/G) and second (Tyreek Hill - 24.3). Jake Ferguson is the TE4 in XFP/G during that time, Dak Prescott is the QB1 (32.1 XFP/G) and Jalen Hurts is a distant second (26.5).

And one more Cowboys note -- Brandin Cooks has pronouncedly better splits when not facing press coverage in each of the past two seasons, and the Panthers only use press coverage 29% of the time defensively. The next-lowest rate is 36%.

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under -- 33 points (opened at 38)

Browns (17.25 points) -- Dorian Thompson-Robinson fell apart in his first career start against the Ravens in Week 4. Roughly a month and a half later, and Cleveland's fifth-round rookie is looking at an opportunity to potentially close the season as the starter. His first matchup will come with more starting practice reps and in a more inviting matchup. As a result, Cleveland's implied team total is 4.5 points higher than in Thompson-Robinson's first start.

The Steelers are an easier matchup than Baltimore, but this is not necessarily an easy matchup. The Steelers rank 10th in pass defense EPA and pressure rate. Pittsburgh blitzes at the sixth-highest rate (36%), and their aggressiveness only widens an already highly volatile range of outcomes for Thompson-Robinson in Week 11.

Pittsburgh's heavy use of man coverage and blitzes often leaves their corners on islands, which has resulted in the sixth-highest opponent first-read target rate (75.9%). We could see Thompson-Robinson lock in on Amari Cooper in this spot. Cooper's underlying 2023 data suggests that he's at the peak of his powers, so I'd expect him to win more often than not against Joey Porter Jr. and company.

I spent this much time on DTR and the passing game because DraftKings has the rookie QB priced at just $4,500. That's absurdly cheap for a QB with rushing ability. As Joshua Dobbs has shown on multiple occasions this season, you don't have to be an accurate passer to stack Fantasy points.

Steelers (15.75 points) -- Pittsburgh's offensive line play has improved dramatically with the return of Broderick Jones, as made clear by the yards before contact rates for Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris recently.

No team is allowing fewer yards before contact per rush (0.62) than the Browns. This is as tough of a test as Pittsburgh's rushing unit could ask for.

An update on George Pickens and his predictable roller coaster of a season in this dysfunctional Pittsburgh passing attack:

Against a Browns defense that uses a ton of press and man coverage, Pickens may see more one-on-one opportunities down the field. We saw Pickens turn four catches into 127 yards and a score (without Diontae Johnson) against this Browns defense in Week 2, and his impressive career splits against press coverage date back to his time in college.

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

Over/Under -- 48 points (opened at 45)

Lions (27.75 points) -- The Bears are last in pressure rate (29%), although it's worth mentioning that their pressure rate is up to 38% (which would rank 11th) during the plays with Montez Sweat on the field.

When pressured, Jared Goff ranks just 17th in yards per attempt and has an average depth of target (aDOT) that comes in 25.9% below average. When not pressured, Goff ranks fifth in yards per attempt. When Goff has not been pressured, Amon-Ra St. Brown has a massive 34% target per route run rate and has averaged 3.17 yards per route run. Jahmyr Gibbs also has been much more likely to draw a target (28.4% target per route run rate) when Goff isn't pressured, and the Bears have been one of the most inviting matchups for opposing receiving backs all year.

Bears (20.25 points) -- The Lions are one of four teams with a pressure rate of 40% or higher, and Justin Fields has some of the most notable pressure splits of any QB. When not pressured, Fields actually ranks ahead of Goff with the fourth-highest yard per attempt mark. Fields has a passer rating that is up 6.2% from the NFL average when not pressured but down 1.2% when pressured. He ranks 26th among 30 qualified passers in yards per attempt when pressured.

There's upside available for Fields, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet, and even the running backs, as evidenced in this game's huge 48-point over/under. If you want to roll the dice on Fields this week, his FanDuel price tag is appealing. Just don't ignore the downside -- this is not a positive matchup, and things could get ugly if Chicago's offensive line doesn't play well.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans

Over/Under -- 48.5 points (opened at 47)

Cardinals (21.75 points) -- In Houston's first five games, their opponents had a situation-neutral pass rate of just 51.7%. Then Desmond Ridder had by far his best game of the season in Week 5 against the Texans.

Many metrics painted Houston as the easiest defense to attack on the ground in 2022, but that has not been the case for the DeMeco Ryans-led Texans in 2023. It took about a month, but offenses have figured this out and adjusted. Over the past month, the Texans have a situation-neutral opponent pass rate of 58.7%.

We should see a lot of Kyler Murray dropbacks with the Cardinals expected to be playing from behind. That's exciting for Trey McBride, Arizona's second-year tight end who brings per-route data that is on-par with Travis Kelce's.

I've been buying Marquise Brown anywhere that I can, but I don't love this matchup for him. The Texans have the second-lowest opponent target rate to "out wide" receivers (33.7%) behind only the Jets (33.3%). Houston uses a ton of "umbrella" zone coverages that emphasize keeping everything in front, which isn't ideal for downfield threats such as Hollywood Brown. Also noteworthy -- the Texans' blitz rate (22.5%) ranks fifth-lowest, and Murray's 2022 data suggests that he likes taking shots to Brown when blitzed but is more likely to target his underneath options than Brown when not blitzed.

Texans (26.75 points) -- The Cardinals only use press coverage 37% of the time (30th) defensively and are one of three defenses with a blitz rate below 20%. This is one of the softest matchups available, and so it should come as no surprise that the Cardinals have the third-highest "out wide" opponent target rate and 10th-highest opponent first-read target rate.

Nico Collins has been one of the best producers vs. press coverage, while Tank Dell's numbers have fallen off within those splits. The rookie stands to benefit from Arizona's hands-off approach. Both the low blitz rate and heavy use (61.5% -- second) of two-high safety looks present this as a favorable matchup for Dalton Schultz.

And with Dameon Pierce still not practicing, Devin Singletary looks like a smash play as the clear lead back for a Texans offense that carries the third-highest implied team total in Week 11. We have arrived at a place where I can simply recommend playing all of the Texans, how fun. Well, not for those of us who drafted Pierce, but at least everyone else is having fun!

Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Over/Under -- 46.5 points (opened at 48)

Dolphins (29.75 points) -- No team has allowed more rushing yards per game to the RB position over the past month than the Raiders (128 yards). De'Von Achane (RB5 in my Week 11 rankings) and Raheem Mostert (RB10) are both fantastic plays.

Raiders (16.75 points) -- Since Antonio Pierce took over as head coach, the Raiders have a 55% run rate. The NFL's highest run rate this season is 51%. The Dolphins have the seventh-highest situation-neutral opponent rush rate, signaling that teams prefer to attack this defense on the ground.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite, Miami has the lowest rush stuff rate (the percentage of rushes that result in four or fewer yards on first down or three or fewer yards on any other down). Miami's stuff rate is all the way down at 36%. Compare that to a 50% stuff rate for Josh Jacobs this season, ranking 35th among 47 qualified backs. This Raiders offensive line has struggled to create running lanes with any consistency, but this matchup may help the Vegas ground game keep the recent momentum rolling.

Through the air, we should continue to see a lot of Davante Adams. The Dolphins have the fourth-highest opponent first-read target rate (76.5%), and Aidan O'Connell has locked in on Adams. I worry a bit about O'Connell struggling against a Miami pass rush that is tied with Baltimore for sixth in pressure rate, but Adams makes a ton of sense as an underpriced tournament play who may go overlooked in DFS. Especially on FanDuel, where Jacobs is too cheap and may garner a decent rostered rate, Adams is intriguing for tournament play. He's the clearest path to the Raiders keeping this game competitive enough for the Dolphins to continue attacking through the air, so if you want to roster any of the Dolphins passing game pieces, it makes sense to at least consider including Adams as well.

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants

Over/Under -- 37 points (opened at 37)

Commanders (23.25 points) -- The Giants are one of just two defenses to use man coverage over 40% of the time. They're also one of only two that blitzes over 40% of the time defensively, and no other team is above 40% in both. This is the most aggressive defense in the NFL, and these tendencies have resulted in the highest opponent first-read target rate (78.4%).

Unfortunately, Sam Howell has not been aggressive when blitzed. Howell has just a 7.5-yard aDOT against the blitz, and Curtis Samuel and Brian Robinson are the players who have seen a target boost against the blitz.

Target per route run rate splits when Sam Howell has not been blitzed:

20.7% -- Terry McLaurin
19.0% -- Curtis Samuel
14.1% -- Jahan Dotson

Target per route run rate splits when Sam Howell has been blitzed:

21.9% -- Curtis Samuel
17.1% -- Terry McLaurin
16.2% -- Jahan Dotson

McLaurin has been Washington's best receiver against man coverage, and he absolutely could get loose for a big game in this matchup. I don't love Howell's splits when blitzed, though, and he only completed 22 of 42 passes for 249 scoreless yards against the Giants in Week 7.

Giants (13.75 points) -- Saquon Barkley had a team-high target share (17.3%) when Tommy DeVito has been in at QB, and 46% of the total offensive opportunities (rushes or targets) have been accounted for by Barkley. In Week 10 (DeVito's first start), Barkley accounted for 33% of the offensive opportunities.

There have been 119 instances of a RB registering an opportunity share of at least 33% in a game in 2023. The average PPR output of that group is 18 points, and 87% have finished with double digit points. The average weekly RB12 score is 16 PPR points, which 58% of the group hit. Barkley can definitely get there for his Fantasy managers through volume alone, especially if he continues to be targeted at a high rate.

I'm tempering expectations a bit (Barkley ranks as my RB20 in Week 11) because of the miniscule implied team total, but Barkley is one of the safer floor plays available at the RB position.

Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Over/Under -- 44 points (opened at 42)

Packers (20.5 points) -- The Chargers have the fourth-highest situation-neutral opponent pass rate, and Green Bay ranks fourth in situation-neutral pass rate on offense. I expect more passing than usual from Green Bay, and Aaron Jones and Luke Musgrave are the two who may benefit from the matchup. The Chargers have the fifth-highest opposing RB target rate and sixth-highest opposing TE target rate. These L.A. linebackers can be attacked.

It's hard to feel much confidence in any of the Green Bay wide receivers on a week-to-week basis. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are not delivering the types of performances that the Packers need for this offense to work. Maybe a matchup against the Chargers will help this offense turn things around.

Chargers (23.5 points) -- Green Bay's league-low situation-neutral opponent pass rate continues to shrink with each passing week. Through 10 weeks, Packers opponents have just a 47.2% pass rate when the score has been within six points. Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Justin Herbert are the only Chargers that I want to roster, and both Allen and Herbert come in lower in my projections than usual. If you're desperate, you could consider Joshua Kelley. If the Packers offense can't move the ball, the Chargers may run 35+ times in this spot.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

Over/Under -- 40 points (opened at 40.5)

Jaguars (23.5 points) -- The Titans have the second-highest opponent first-read target rate (77.9%) and the highest opponent "out wide" target rate. Tennessee's opponent passer rating on deep passes is the seventh-highest. This feels like a Calvin Ridley spot. Ridley's first-read target rate has shrunk as the year's gone on, but in three matchups against defenses ranked in the top-12 in "out wide" target rate, he has a team-high 34% first-read target rate.

Ever since Zack Moss got loose for 165 yards and two scores on the ground against Tennessee in Week 5, the Titans defense has been more leaky in allowing explosive plays than in previous years. This is not a positive matchup, and I don't trust Jacksonville's offense, but Travis Etienne should remain locked into starting lineups because of his unique workload and big play potential.

Titans (16.5 points) -- The Jaguars have a league-high situation-neutral opponent pass rate (66%). Teams pass the ball against this defense. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest RB rushing yards per game (63) but the most RB targets and receptions (7.6) per game. This does not feel like a good matchup for Derrick Henry.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over/Under -- 41.5 points (opened at 42.5)

49ers (26.75 points) -- Tampa Bay has the eighth-highest situation-neutral opponent pass rate (61%), and San Francisco actually has passed the ball at a decent rate when in neutral situations. San Francisco's situation-neutral pass rate (57% - 17th) is up from 55% in 2022 and 51% in 2021, so the Niners appear to have gained more trust in Brock Purdy and this passing attack.

The Buccaneers are implied for a wildly low point total in Week 11, so there's no guarantee that we'll have many neutral situations in this matchup. San Francisco's total is high enough to feel reasonably confident that the passing game will produce plenty, even if most of it comes in the first half of a blowout.

Despite only ranking 27th in pressure rate, the Bucs blitz a ton (40% -- third) defensively. Some quarterbacks become more aggressive in taking downfield shots against the blitz, that has not been the case for Brock Purdy. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel see the biggest boosts in target rate vs. the blitz.

Bucs (14.75 points) -- Unlike Tampa Bay, the 49ers do not need to blitz to create pressure. San Francisco blitzes 22.6% of the time (27th) and ranks fifth in pressure rate at 39.4%.

Baker Mayfield has actually performed quite admirably when pressured, ranking ninth in yards per attempt. He's been willing to take deep shots to Mike Evans when pressured, but not at the same rate as when kept clean. Evans has a much higher target rate against the blitz -- this zone-heavy Niners scheme doesn't stand out as a positive matchup for him.

Chris Godwin and Rachaad White are who Mayfield has leaned on when pressured. I'm providing a small bump in target projection for each in this matchup.

Ultimately, this implied point total has to grab our attention. It's rare to get a total this low for a team with its usual starting QB active. Evans has fallen way down my ranks, while Godwin and White are just fringe starters if you don't have better options.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

Over/Under -- 39.5 points (opened at 48.5)

Bills (23.25 points) -- The Jets defense brings the lowest blitz rate (18.5%) but second-highest pressure rate (45%). New York's incredible cornerback play has resulted in a league-low "out wide" target rate and a 58.9% opponent first-read target rate that is by far the lowest.

Josh Allen has struggled against this defense before, and I don't like this matchup for him or the Bills wide receivers. Dalton Kincaid may lead the Bills in targets again.

Jets (16.25 points) -- Buffalo uses a lot of press coverage (73% -- third) to disrupt opposing wide receivers, and their opponent first-read target rate (62.7%) can only be topped by the Jets.

Garrett Wilson dominates press coverage and has been remarkably consistent thanks to a league-high 42.5% first-read target rate. He caught all five of his targets against the Bills in Week 1, but Buffalo did hold him to his lowest yardage total (34) of the season.

The Bills rank sixth-worst in missed tackle rate and second-worst in yards after contact (3.54) allowed per rush. Even if you remove a Week 1 game in which Breece Hall posted 131 yards after contact thanks in large part to an 83-yard gain, the Bills still have a 3.13 yards after contact allowed per rush that would rank 26th. We could absolutely see Hall break off some chunk plays in this matchup.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Over/Under -- 46.5 points (opened at 46.5)

Rams (22.75 points) -- The Seahawks use press coverage at the fifth-highest rate (72%) and rank third in zone coverage use (83%). Seattle only blitzes 24% of the time (25th) and ranks 13th in pressure rate. Seattle's strong cornerback play allows this defense to bully a lot of opponents, but wide receivers who are capable of beating press have had no problem against this defense.

And you may remember that Puka Nacua's first NFL game came against this Seattle secondary. The Seahawks didn't have Devon Witherspoon the first time around, so it will be a more difficult Week 11 matchup for Nacua. The rookie has crushed press coverage, though. His 31.1% target per route run rate (3rd of 82) and 2.68 yards per route run (11th) vs. press coverage both rank near the top among qualified receivers.

When the Rams have had Matthew Stafford at QB, both Nacua and Cooper Kupp have put up Fantasy WR1 production.

I get that Seattle has strong cornerback play, but I'm still expecting a huge performance from the Rams passing attack. The Seahawks use Cover-3 at the fourth-highest rate, and they've been gashed for the fourth-highest Fantasy point per dropback rate when using Cover-3. Matthew Stafford's best production relative to league average has come against Cover-3, and both Nacua (2.74 yards per route run vs. Cover-3) and Kupp (3.45) have dominated Cover-3.

Seahawks (23.75 points) -- The Rams rank third in single-high safety middle-field-open coverage defensively, and the Seahawks have drastic splits depending on the type of safety looks opponents have used. DK Metcalf in particular stands out as being a huge beneficiary of single-high safety coverage.

Target per route run rate vs. middle field open:

23% -- Tyler Lockett
19% -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
17% -- DK Metcalf

Target per route run rate vs. middle field closed:

31% -- Metcalf
23% -- Smith-Njigba
22% -- Lockett

Both Seattle running backs are in play at this point. Zach Charbonnet has out-snapped Kenneth Walker for three straight games, but Walker continues to see the most work on the ground and all of the opportunities when in scoring distance. Both backs are playing exceptionally and are capable of exceeding their expected Fantasy points in any game.

Denver Broncos vs. Minnesota Vikings

Over/Under -- 42.5 points (opened at 43.5)

Broncos (22.5 points) -- The Vikings only use press coverage 40% of the time defensively (29th). That's tremendous news for Jerry Jeudy, who has been targeted on only 10% of his routes vs. press coverage in 2023.

The most notable aspect of Minnesota's Brian Flores-led defense is without a doubt the 49% blitz rate. Even with all those blitzes, the Vikings have pressured opponents at just the second-lowest rate (30%).

When blitzed, Russell Wilson has targeted Courtland Sutton the most. Wilson has also hit Marvin Mims for 4-133-1 receiving on 27 routes run vs. the blitz, and the rookie finally played the majority of the offensive snaps in Week 10.

Javonte Williams has often stood in as a pass blocker against the blitz, but it's worth noting that he's been targeted on 10 of 25 routes run vs. the blitz for 7-15-2 receiving.

Remember the 33% opportunity rate that I referenced in regards to Saquon Barkley's workload? Oh, you skipped the Giants section? I would have if I could have -- anyway, Williams has opportunity shares of 37%, 52%, and 39% over his past three games and his team isn't implied for 13.75 points like Barkley's Giants. Williams has finished as the RB6, RB9, and RB20 over his past three games and should be viewed as a borderline top-12 Fantasy RB for as long as this usage remains intact.

Vikings (20 points) -- The NFL average missed tackle rate is 11.3%. The Denver Broncos have registered a missed tackle rate higher than that NFL average in all but one game, and they're the only team in the NFL with a double-digit missed tackle rate in every single game. Denver appeared to be shoring the run defense up a bit prior to a Week 10 meeting with the Bills but then allowed James Cook and Latavius Murray to combine for 177 rushing yards on 21 attempts.

Ty Chandler couldn't ask for much better of a matchup for his first start to come in.

For what it's worth, Denver has not allowed any of Justin Fields, Josh Allen, or Patrick Mahomes (twice) to top 30 rushing yards.

Weekly fantasy QB finish of Denver's opponents over the past month:

QB8 -- Patrick Mahomes
QB18 -- Jordan Love
QB30 -- Patrick Mahomes
QB15 -- Josh Allen

Patrick Surtain Jr. is playing at a really high level lately, and I'd expect him to win more often than not against Jordan Addison. Week 11 may bring a step back for the red-hot Vikings offense, which is further backed by a middling 20-point implied team total.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Over/Under -- 45.5 points (opened at 50.5)

Chiefs (24.25 points) -- The Eagles have the second-highest situation-neutral opponent pass rate (66%) and have allowed by far the fewest RB rushing yards per game (54). No RB has topped 60 yards on the ground against this defense. Isiah Pacheco may find the end zone in a potential shootout, but this is as uninviting as a matchup can get for an RB.

Of course, the way to attack Philly is through the air. Specifically, the Eagles have the second-highest opponent slot target rate. This very well could be the Rashee Rice breakout game.

Philadelphia ranks seventh in single-high safety coverage use and has allowed the third-most Fantasy points per dropback when using single-high safety coverage. Against this coverage type, Travis Kelce's target per route run rate skyrockets to 35%. Rice's target per route run rate is actually slightly higher against two-high safety looks (29%) than single-high coverage (27%), but his yard per route run rate (2.64) is higher vs. single-high coverage. I have Rice ranked as the WR30 for Week 11, ahead of Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, and Jordan Addison.

Eagles (21.75 points) -- The Chiefs have the second-highest situation-neutral opponent run rate (51.4%), and Philadelphia ranks third in situation-neutral run rate (49.2%) on offense. Teams have found success running against Kansas City, and I expect that we might see a lot of D'Andre Swift in this spot.

When the Eagles do take to the sky, we should see more DeVonta Smith without Dallas Goedert to compete with for targets behind A.J. Brown. Smith's target per route run rate on 35 routes without Goedert on the field in 2023 is all the way up to 31.4%. Since the start of 2022, Smith has a 25.4% target per route run rate without Goedert, compared to an 18.8% rate while sharing the field with Goedert.

If picking one Eagles receiver to find success in this spot, it of course has to be Brown. Since the start of 2022, only Tyreek Hill (3.77) has a higher yard per route run rate vs. press coverage than Brown (3.59), while Smith (1.89) ranks 33rd. Against a Chiefs defense that ranks second in press coverage rate (79%), Brown could put up video game numbers if this turns into a pass-heavy game script for the Eagles.

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