Fantasy Football 2024: Rookie WR NFL Draft profiles from proven Fantasy expert
Fantasy expert Jacob Gibbs provides an in-depth analytical breakdown for the exciting 2024 rookie class of WRs.
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Our embarrassment of riches continues to overflow at the wide receiver position. According to the FantasyPros expert consensus Dynasty rankings, both Jordan Addison and Jayden Reed are not even top-24 Dynasty WR assets in the current Fantasy landscape. Reed and Addison are two of just nine receivers to score double-digit touchdowns as a rookie since the start of 2000, and yet neither ranks as a top-24 Dynasty WR with the current abundance of talent at the position.
Contributing to pushing those two of out of the top-24, we find three incoming rookies -- Marvin Harrison Jr. (FantasyPros Dynasty consensus ranking of WR7), Malik Nabers (WR11), and Rome Odunze (WR21), all three of whom are already among the most-coveted wide receivers available in Dynasty formats. All three are likely to be top-10 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. The wealth of WR talent in the incoming rookie class doesn't stop after them, either. The 2024 class is both top-heavy and deep. I gave four receivers from the 2023 class a pre-draft prospect grade of 85 or higher. This year's class has eight.
Admittedly, draft evaluation is a bit far removed from my wheelhouse. I'm at my best when digging into NFL data, testing that data, and finding actionable takeaways. That's harder to do with collegiate data, for a number of reasons. TruMedia, the database that I use, only dates back to 2017 for collegiate data, giving me a smaller sample size to test. Additionally, some collegiate careers are often incomplete. Some players only have one season from which to form takeaways. Puka Nacua, for instance, really didn't even have a single full season of games to analyze. His per-route data jumped off the page, but I had no idea how much weight to assign to his data profile.
And to top it off, some collegiate data is simply a mirage. Things just get a bit wonky when extrapolating collegiate data to the pros. As with any data analysis, context is extremely important. Nuance is key when evaluating incoming rookies who played in all varieties of offensive schemes and against different levels of competition.
So, rather than attempting to sell you on my takeaways as being "correct," I offer them in full transparency as simply a unique perspective on these players. NFL Draft season is the most convoluted and overanalyzed portion of the NFL yearly cycle, so my goal is to uncover context on these players that SportsLine readers may not have encountered before. My focus will be data-intensive, but I do my due diligence to learn as much about these players outside of their data profiles too. I've been religiously reading Matt Harmon's Reception Perception profiles on the rookies, for instance. Matt grades the route-readiness and adds important film-based context, I highly recommend reading up on the rookies on ReceptionPerception.com if you have not.
I also dive into my own route trees analysis for the incoming rookies too. This analysis has helped me avoid players such as Skyy Moore and Terrace Marshall while highlighting Jayden Reed and Rashee Rice. Among the 2024 class, Washington star receiver Rome Odunze stood out as bringing an exciting and complete route tree to the NFL level, while the lack of variety in usage for Brian Thomas Jr. and Devontez Walker stood out. Both players weren't asked to do much other than win on hitch and go routes, and that type of success is less likely to be found against NFL-level defenses. We've seen similar usage from the likes of Cedric Tillman, A.T. Perry, Alec Pierce, George Pickens, and Jonathan Mingo recently. So far, only Pickens has been able to replicate it at the NFL level.
One of my favorite sleepers from this draft is a receiver I expected to fall into that same bucket, but I left pleasantly surprised after spending more time learning about his collegiate usage. This wideout offers tantalizing per-route data and a unique skillset -- he's nothing like Nacua as a player, but he'd be my answer to the obviously impossible question of "Who is this year's Puka Nacua?" With the right landing spot, he could really surprise people with his Year 1 production.
Which rookie WRs should you be prioritizing in season-long and dynasty drafts? And which overlooked rookie brings massive upside? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jacob Gibbs' top rookie WRs, plus get the entire 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Bible, all from an analytics-driven expert!
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