Falcons vs. Saints NFL Week 18 odds, props: Arthur Smith's job could hinge on win Sunday, sneaking into playoffs as NFC South champion

When a fairly outspoken owner of an NFL team doesn't want to publicly address the job status of a head coach, it doesn't bode well for the coach's long-term prospects. That brings us to Falcons coach Arthur Smith, and the general consensus by those who follow the team on a daily basis is that owner Arthur Blank will fire Smith if the Falcons don't sneak into the NFC playoffs. They need a win in New Orleans on Sunday as a 3.5-point underdog and a Tampa Bay loss in Carolina to win the NFC South and get in. SportsLine also offers updated odds on Smith's future.

A couple of weeks ago, SportsLine oddsmakers priced Smith at +120 to be the Falcons' coach in Week 1 of the 2024 season with No at -140. The team's postseason fate took a huge hit this past Sunday in a 37-17 blowout loss in Chicago. Smith has been rather indecisive on his starting quarterbacks this season, and that's a big reason why most think he's a goner. The Falcons will absolutely address that position this offseason either in free agency (Russell Wilson?), via trade (Justin Fields?) or in the first round of the draft (JJ McCarthy?). Atlanta would currently pick 10th in April's first round.

Smith had recently switched back to journeyman Taylor Heinicke under center, but Heinicke threw three picks in Sunday's loss to the surging Bears and was eventually pulled in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury that had bothered him last week during practice. The Bears scored 10 points off of Heinicke's three turnovers. Second-year QB Desmond Ridder was 3-for-4 for 17 yards and a pick in relief. Heinicke will start in New Orleans if he's healthy enough to do so.

The 42-year-old Smith said Monday that nothing has changed with the conversations he's had with Blank previously and that they talk often.

"Everything we've done since I've been here has been the same routine the whole time," Smith said. "I've talked about it many times, if you work in pro football, you know the market you're in, you know the industry you're in. If you don't like it and you're looking for comfort, go do something else."

Remember how it used to feel like former Titans and Rams coach Jeff Fisher finished with seven wins every season? He was the definition of mediocrity. The Falcons were 7-10 in Smith's first season, 7-10 last year and would finish 7-10 again if they lose Sunday. Two general managers told Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports and the Washington Post that Smith will be fired after the end of the current season. Blank has declined to offer a public commitment for or against retaining Smith.

The Falcons have not made the playoffs since 2017. DraftKings prices them at +700 to make it and -1200 to not. To win the division, Atlanta is actually 50 cents cheaper at +650. Tampa Bay is -250 and New Orleans is +350.

The Saints also would win the division with a win and a Buccaneers loss (or tie). New Orleans would get a wild card spot with a win, a Seattle loss or tie in Arizona and Green Bay loss or tie vs. Chicago. The Saints would also make it with a tie and losses by both the Seahawks and Packers. New Orleans is +250 to make it and -320 to not.

Atlanta beat New Orleans 24-15 in Week 12 by rushing for a season-high 228 yards, the most allowed this season by a very good Saints defense. Offensively, Derek Carr & Co. managed only five field goals.

There are 20 teams still in Super Bowl contention, tied for the most with one week to play in NFL history (2006), excluding strike seasons.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Will Arthur Smith be the Falcons' coach in Week 1 of the 2024 season?

• No -180
• Yes +150

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