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Dodgers vs. Marlins line, odds, start time, spread pick, best bets for May 5 matchup from proven model

SportsLine's projection model, which is on a profitable 17-11 run, has locked in its MLB picks for Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins on Monday

ByPublished: May 05, 2025 8:27PM UTC . 3 min read

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to get back on track when they battle the Miami Marlins on Monday night. The Dodgers (23-11), who lead the National League West, are 8-8 on the road this season. The Marlins (13-20), fifth in the NL East, are 9-10 on their home field.

First pitch from loanDepot park in Miami is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is a -212 favorite on the money line (risk $212 to win $100) in the latest Dodgers vs. Marlins odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 9.5. 

Before making any Dodgers vs. Marlins picks or MLB predictions, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 6 of the 2025 MLB season on a 17-11 run on top-rated MLB picks (+276). Anybody following could have seen strong returns!

The model knows Los Angeles is expected to start right-hander Ben Casparius (3-0, 2.91 ERA). In 11 games, including one start, he has pitched 21.2 innings, allowing 17 hits, seven earned runs and three walks, while striking out 23. In his last outing, a 9-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 27, he pitched 3.2 innings, allowing two hits while striking out five. In a 7-6 loss to the Chicago Cubs on April 23, he pitched 2.2 innings, allowing just one hit and no runs with four strikeouts.

The model also knows right-hander Sandy Alcantara (2-3, 8.31 ERA) is expected to take the mound for Miami. Despite being roughed up in his last outing against the Dodgers, he has pitched well overall, allowing three earned runs or fewer in three of his six starts. In a 4-2 win over the New York Mets on April 1, he earned the victory, pitching five innings and allowing three hits, two earned runs and no walks, while striking out four. He took the loss in a 5-2 defeat by the Cincinnati Reds on April 23, pitching six innings and allowing five hits, three earned runs and two walks, while striking out four.

The model has simulated Dodgers vs. Marlins 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning Over on the run total, and it also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!

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Daniel Kohn

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