Commanders vs. Cowboys Thursday NFL Week 12 odds, props: Dallas can set NFL record on Thanksgiving

The Dallas Cowboys host their usual mid-afternoon game Thanksgiving, with the Washington Commanders as the visitors this year as they often have been on Turkey Day. The Cowboys are 11-point favorites on the SportsLine consensus, and their performance at home this season suggests the game could be even more lopsided than that. Dallas has a chance to set an NFL record with a big win.

At AT&T Stadium this season, Dallas has beaten the Jets by 20, the Patriots by 25, the Chargers by 23 and the Giants by 32 to become the sixth team in NFL history to win its first four home games of a season by at least 20 points. No club has done it five times in a row to open a season. The last two to match the Dallas four-game home streak were Pittsburgh in 2007 and Chicago in 2006. Both made the playoffs but neither won the Super Bowl. The record for overall consecutive 20-point home wins is seven by the 1999 Rams.

The Cowboys have won 12 straight home games overall, trailing only an 18-game run at the old Texas Stadium from 1979-81 as the longest in team history. The last quarterback to beat them in Arlington was Tom Brady with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1 of the 2022 season.

Prescott, who is the +275 favorite to throw for the most yards of any quarterback in the three Thanksgiving games, is 17-2 in his career at home against divisional teams. The only NFC East QBs to beat him in Arlington were the Giants' Eli Manning (in Prescott's first career start) and the Eagles' Carson Wentz (in 2017). Prescott is 5-0 with 13 touchdown passes and zero picks in his career at home vs. Washington. Dallas scored at least 31 points in each of those games. 

Since the merger, the record for consecutive home QB wins in divisional games is held by Brady with 20 in a row against the AFC East from 2007-2014. Prescott's 14-game mark vs. the NFC East isn't even a team record yet, as Troy Aikman had a 15-game run against the division from 1991-95.

Dallas has the NFL's No. 2 scoring offense at 30.2 points per game. Washington has the No. 32 scoring defense at 27.7 PPG. A top-two scoring offense has faced a bottom-two scoring defense at least 10 games into a season 44 times in the Super Bowl Era. The No. 2 offense is 42-2 in those games and has won the past seven.

Second-year Washington QB Sam Howell leads the NFL with 3,038 passing yards. Washington hasn't had the NFL's passing leader since Sonny Jurgensen in 1969. Howell is 23 years old and would be the third-youngest passing champ since 1950 and the youngest since Drew Bledsoe pulled it off in 1994.

Howell is +800 at DraftKings to win the passing title but might not make it through the season healthy. He's been sacked an NFL-high 51 times and is on pace to be sacked an NFL-record 79 times. He'd be the first player since 1970 to lead the league in passing yards and sacks in the same season. Dallas has the NFL's highest QB pressure rate at 47%. The Commanders are one of four teams to have lost multiple games this season in which they led by double digits and are 3-2 in those games.

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