Chargers' 2022 NFL playoff chances increase by 20 percent with Khalil Mack, JC Jackson via SportsLine Projection Model

Teams that "win the offseason" more often than not tend to flop the next NFL campaign, but the SportsLine Projection Model has declared the Los Angeles Chargers a big winner thus far with the team's playoff chances increasing to nearly 60 percent in 2022 following the trade for former Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack and the signing of Patriots All-Pro cornerback JC Jackson. Both those deals will become official Wednesday, the first day of the new league year.

The Chargers agreed to the Mack trade last week with Chicago for the quite low price of a 2022 second-round pick and a sixth-round selection in 2023. The Bolts did have to take on Mack's entire contract, which has three years remaining and payouts of $17.75 million in 2022, $22.9 million in '23 and $23.25 million in '24. Sure, Los Angeles could have instead spent money on a free-agent pass-rusher without giving up draft picks. But coach Brandon Staley loves Mack from their time together in Chicago.

Los Angeles got him cheaply because Mack missed most of the 2021 season with a foot injury that required surgery and hasn't recorded more than nine sacks in a season since 2018. He's still a difference-maker, and Mack and Joey Bosa will terrorize opposing quarterbacks.

The Chargers clearly noticed how well it worked out for their SoFi Stadium co-tenant Rams in going all-in last season with the Bolts on Monday signing Jackson to a five-year, $85 million free-agent deal. The Chargers had only 11 interceptions as a team in 2021. Jackson had eight all by himself and led the league in passes defended with 23. He's the only player in the NFL in the past eight years with at least eight picks in back-to-back seasons and his 25 picks since 2018 are the most in the league. Jackson's 51.8 completion percentage allowed since then is second-best in the NFL.

Jackson now joins a secondary that has young, talented players in Derwin James and Asante Samuel Jr. The Chargers defense last season finished 23rd in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed. If that unit can even be average, the Bolts are legit AFC contenders with Justin Herbert leading the offense – the Bolts already re-signed receiver Mike Williams to a new deal. A franchise QB on a rookie contract like Herbert allows a team to go get expensive players like Mack and Jackson.

NFL win totals aren't out at the various books yet but the SportsLine Projection Model has increased the Chargers' win total from 8.7 to 9.7 next season with Mack and Jackson. Their chances of winning the absolutely loaded AFC West (now that Russell Wilson is in Denver) improved from 14 percent to 26.7 percent and their chances at the playoffs from 38.5 percent to 58.5 percent.

Caesars Sportsbook lists the Chargers at +2000 to win Super Bowl 57, +1000 for the AFC title and +400 in the AFC West.

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