CFB: A look-ahead at early Week 4 lines
Stanford and Texas Tech are among teams receiving an uptick in respect from oddsmakers after each pulled off big upsets as double-digit road underdogs on Saturday.
After Week 3 of college football was filled with wild upsets and exciting finishes, let’s take a quick first look at some of the early numbers for Week 4 games.
Stanford at Oregon State (+16): The price on Stanford (2-1) is back up to premium after the Cardinal’s 41-31 upset of USC on Saturday as a 10-point underdog.
The Beavers (2-1) defeated San Jose State 35-21 on Saturday and covered the touchdown number. But they were blown out 35-7 by Michigan two weeks ago against the only tough opponent on their non-conference schedule.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (+6) (Arlington, Tex.): This game already has seen some steam for the Aggies (3-0), who beat Nevada 44-27 on Saturday.
Meanwhile, disappointing Arkansas (1-2) lost its second straight when it fell to Texas Tech 35-24.
The Aggies were favored by 10 last year in this game at the same venue, and won by 7 in overtime.
TCU at Texas Tech (+7.5): The Red Raiders (3-0) are getting a huge nod of respect here after their upset of Arkansas as an 11.5-point underdog Saturday.
The typically soft, pass-happy club held up surprisingly well against the Razorbacks, but they haven’t matched up well with the Horned Frogs (3-0) in recent years. Last season, TCU set a school record for points in its 82-27 demolition of the Red Raiders.
The Frogs fought off a spirited effort from SMU on Saturday, but pulled away for a 56-37 win.
Mississippi State at Auburn (-3): The thin price on the Tigers (2-1) shows their power rating has been reduced after a disappointing start to the season that includes Saturday’s 45-21 blowout loss to LSU.
Mississippi State also lost to LSU 21-19 in Week 2, as its late rally came up a failed two-point conversion of forcing overtime. The Bulldogs beat Northwestern State 62-13 on Saturday.
BYU at Michigan (-5): The Wolverines (2-1) have looked physical and effective in their first two home games under Jim Harbaugh, but the competition is about to get tougher.
Michigan rolled 35-7 against Oregon State in Week 2 and beat UNLV 28-7 on Saturday, failing to cover the enormous 35-point spread.
Meanwhile, the Cougars (2-1) saw their run of scintillating last-second wins come to end Saturday when their last drive against UCLA resulted in an interception and a 24-23 loss.
Still, they covered the 16.5-point spot with ease and are undefeated against the spread this season.
Josh Nagel is a Reno-based handicapper and radio host who has worked in the Nevada sports gaming industry for 15 years. His work has been featured in USA Today, Poker News and on Covers.com. He looks for psychological edges, motivational spots and situational advantages.
