Carlos Correa signs with Twins odds fallout: Big positive impact for Minnesota, Mets suffer slightly after losing All-Star
One of the most bizarre free-agent situations in not just Major League Baseball history but all of American professional sports might be over as the Minnesota Twins have swooped in to steal All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa back from the New York Mets – who previously swooped in to steal him from the San Francisco Giants. Correa's latest shift has impacted both the Twins' and Mets' futures odds at BetMGM, and the SportsLine Projection Model has altered the 2023 simulations for both teams.
The Twins always wanted Correa back after he hit .291 with 22 homers, 64 RBI and an OPS of .834 in his lone season with them in 2022 before exercising an opt-out on his contract. On Dec. 13, Correa agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract with the San Francisco Giants that blew anything the Twins had offered out of the water.
However, after a physical the Giants raised concerns about Correa's surgically repaired right leg -- a procedure he underwent after an injury he suffered back when he was a minor leaguer. Correa's agent Scott Boras quickly pivoted to the Mets, who signed him to a 12-year, $315 million deal. The Mets had similar concerns, so the deal was never signed. New York wanted some protective language put in the contract, but apparently that scared off Boras and Correa.
The Twins got Correa for six years and $200 million with a vesting option for four years and $70 million that becomes official if Correa passes a medical review. Considering the Twins already signed Correa as a free agent once, that should be a formality this time around. The deal represents the largest free-agent commitment in Twins history, both by years and dollars. Correa essentially lost seven guaranteed years and $150 million off his original contract with the Giants
Is the 28-year-old Correa worth all this? He's a former AL Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove and Platinum Glove Award winner (both of those with the Twins) and two-time All-Star. His career wins above replacement is 39.5. Only three primary shortstops in the expansion era (since 1961) produced more WAR through their age-27 season: Alex Rodriguez (63.6), Robin Yount (44.7) and Cal Ripken Jr. (43.6). The latter two are in the Hall of Fame, and Rodriguez is currently on the ballot.
Here is how the Mets' odds to win the 2023 World Series have pinballed at BetMGM this offseason:
- +1100: Open
- +1700: Jacob deGrom signs with the Rangers
- +900: Signed Justin Verlander
- +650: Expected to sign Correa
- +750: Correa to Twins
Minnesota, meanwhile, has shifted from +6600 to +5000 to win the 2023 Fall Classic with the Correa addition.
Below are the updated SportsLine Projection simulations, with Correa adding 2.6 wins to the Twins but only subtracting -0.3 from New York. Correa was going to play third base with the Mets, but they have solid internal in Eduardo Escobar and highly regarded prospect Brett Baty.
The Twins host the Mets from Sept. 8-10. That should be interesting considering Correa said he wanted to be in New York all along.Â
| METSÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â | WINÂ Â Â Â Â | WIN%Â Â Â | DIVISIONÂ Â Â | PLAYOFFÂ Â | LCSÂ Â Â Â Â | WS |
| W/ Correa | 92.1 | 56.90% | 20.90% | 73.00% | 12.40% | 6.80% |
| W/O Correa | 91.8 | 56.70% | 20.00% | 71.20% | 11.90% | 6.50% |
| Difference | -0.3 | -0.20% | -0.90% | -1.80% | -0.50% | -0.30% |
| TWINSÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | LCSÂ | WS |
| W/ Correa | 75.2 | 46.40% | 12.10% | 16.40% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| W/O Correa | 77.8 | 48.00% | 15.00% | 21.30% | 0.50% | 0.10% |
| Difference | 2.6 | 1.60% | 2.90% | 4.90% | 0.30% | 0.10% |
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