Bills vs. Texans betting preview: Odds, picks, props, trends, injuries, weather and more for Week 12 Thursday Night Football

A potentially important game in the AFC playoff race kicks off NFL Week 12 on Thursday Night Football as the Buffalo Bills (7-3) visit the Houston Texans (5-5), who need the victory much more but will not have starting quarterback C.J. Stroud available. Thus, Buffalo is -6 with a low total of 43.5 for the 8:15 ET kick on Prime Video. 

Neither of these clubs seem likely to win their respective divisions. Houston sits third in the AFC South, three games behind first-place Indianapolis, and eighth overall in the AFC. The team is surging a bit, though, behind backup QB Davis Mills and an upset here would surely do wonders with Stroud then likely back in Week 13 after a mini-bye.

The SportsLine Projection Model currently forecasts Houston at 8.5 wins for the season and gives the team a 20.5% shot at making the playoffs, which would rise to 33.3% with a win and fall to 12.2% with a loss. DraftKings also has the Texans at 8.5 wins (Under -140 favorite) and +280 to make the playoffs with No at -370. Houston will try to become the first team since 2018 to start 0-3 and make the playoffs.

Buffalo is 1.5 games behind first-place New England in the AFC East and currently loses the head-to-head tiebreaker due to a Week 5 home upset to the surprising Patriots, but they play again in Week 15 in Foxborough so the division is not out of reach. DraftKings favors the Pats (-250) to win the division while the Bills are +200. The model forecasts Buffalo at 11.6 wins (fourth-most in the AFC) and gives them just a 20.7% shot to win the division, but has the Bills making the playoffs 92.0% of the time. Those numbers rise to 26.7% and 97.0% with a win.

We may see Josh Allen make NFL history tonight. The reigning league MVP and current +475 third favorite to repeat needs one rushing score to break a tie with Cam Newton (75) for the most by a quarterback in league history. Although, it's certainly no sure thing that Allen gets a rushing score as Houston has one of the NFL's top defenses.

We'll take you through every aspect of the Bills vs. Texans game that you need to know before you lock in your bets, including SportsLine expert picks, props, trends, DFS, injury information and everything else that will help you know which plays are worth making for the primetime matchup.

Who wins Bills vs. Texans in the Week 12 Thursday night game, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread hit HARD? Join SportsLine right now to see everything you need to know to dominate your Thursday Night Football bets, plus get expert picks, model sims, prop bets, DFS lineups, and more!