Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 8 Lineup Advice from proven expert

Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.

I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these columns with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!

I do my best to create space to answer lineup advice questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season. I can't get to every question, though, so I hope that these tiers and comparisons help you feel more confident in your start/sit decisions. Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions.

In Week 1's lineup advice column, SportsLine users were advised to start Puka Nacua. Leading up to Week 2, Gibbs predicted a huge week from Nico Collins, and he also advised trusting Nacua and Kyren Williams even in a matchup against the 49ers. Week 3's Beyond the Boxscore highlighted Tank Dell before his 5-145-1 explosion against the Jaguars. In Week 4, Gibbs predicted Khalil Herbert getting his season on track due to the splits between Herbert and Roschon Johnson when the Bears had previously been in neutral game scripts. Week 5's Beyond the Boxscore identified Arizona's strange schematic tendencies as presenting a perfect bounce-back spot for Joe Burrow and the Bengals. In Week 6, Rhamondre Stevenson was highlighted as a bounce-back candidate and went on to finish sixth at the RB position in Fantasy scoring. And last week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was touted as a trustworthy fill-in option with so many players on bye and turned in his first Fantasy-relevant performance of the season.

One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 8: Calvin Ridley. It has been a rollercoaster season for Ridley's Fantasy football believers, but Gibbs sees a Week 8 matchup against the Steelers as a perfect get-right spot. Gibbs is also all in on the first career matchup between rookie quarterbacks Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 8? And which pass-catchers can you trust? Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly lineup advice, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

I'm starting Dalton Kincaid with confidence

With Dawson Knox out for the foreseeable future, Dalton Kincaid finally has an opportunity to be a full-time player. And his first matchup comes against a Buccaneers defense that has funneled targets to the middle of the field.

It's worth noting that while the Bucs have a high opposing TE target rate, their schedule of opposing tight ends is full of some of the most talented players at the position.

This could be a chicken or the egg situation. One factor that I do feel confident in is that Tampa Bay's defense funnels opposing offensive volume through the passing game and has for years. In 2023, the Bucs again rank in the top five in most rush defense metrics, and their situation-neutral (score within six points) pass rate is one of seven above 60%.

The Bills are down a player in their RB rotation and have shown a willingness to abandon the run at points this season. It would be no surprise to see 50+ dropbacks for Josh Allen in this game. The projected offensive environment and probability of running a route on upwards of 80% of the dropbacks provides Kincaid with a better projection than most players at the position can reach.

I have Kincaid ranked as the TE6 in my Week 8 rankings. I'd start him over any tight end not named Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, or George Kittle.

I'm excited to plug in C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young 

I have Bryce Young ranked as the QB15 for Week 8, while C.J. Stroud is the QB8. Both rookies are in play as Fantasy starters, and I'll be using plenty of each in Week 8 DFS builds.

This game brings sneaky shootout potential. Both teams are coming off of their bye weeks. Stroud has been a stud and gets a healthy Tank Dell back in the lineup. And this is a perfect low-pressure matchup for him.

Houston should be able to move the ball against Carolina's defense. Can we say the same about Young's Panthers offense?

I feel cautiously optimistic that Young will provide a big game in this spot. This DeMeco Ryans-designed Texans defense is much improved from what we've seen from Houston in the past, but Derek Carr (353 passing yards) and Desmond Ridder (329 yards) were able to move the ball against this unit in the two games before the bye. The Texans defense uses a zone-heavy coverage scheme with lots of two-high safety looks. The Texans blitz at the fifth-lowest rate (23%) in the NFL. This is a defense that invites opposing offenses to beat them with short passing and long drives.

Perfect. Short passing and long drives is basically the only formula that works for Young and Adam Thielen at this point.

Displayed below is where I have the passing game pieces ranked (with their FantasyPros expert consensus ranking in parentheses).

WR8 -- Adam Thielen (WR12)
WR15 -- Nico Collins (WR20)
WR31 -- Tank Dell (WR42)
TE10 -- Dalton Schultz (TE11)

I want to spend a bit more time discussing Dell, as he's the most on the periphery of startable players according to expert consensus rankings.

As mentioned already, Carolina's 32nd-ranked pressure rate is great news for the offense as a whole. Dell is among some really exciting company when it comes to his efficiency on non-pressured dropbacks. And on snaps where both Dell and Collins have been on the field together and Stroud was kept clean, Dell has actually drawn more targets than Collins.

But wait, there's more!

And there's even one more encouraging matchup note to highlight for Dell. While the Panthers don't bring pressure often, they do blitz a lot. Carolina ranks seventh in blitz rate, and Dell has been one of the most-targeted players in the NFL when his QB has been blitzed. I'm starting Dell over Jakobi Meyers, Josh Downs, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Michael Pittman, and Courtland Sutton in Week 8.

This is the perfect spot to roll with Garrett Wilson

The Giants use press coverage 56% of the time to help account for Wink Martindale's blitz-heavy scheme, tendencies that set up perfectly for Garett Wilson to dominate Zach Wilson's attention. Trying to predict what Zach Wilson will do is a sometimes fun but nearly always fruitless endeavor. But it makes sense anecdotally that he'd focus in on his stud top receiver if he's left in isolated coverage with New York often sending extra pass rushers. That theory is backed by data, too! If ever there is a week to feel confident in Wilson -- Garrett, not Zach -- this is it.

Wilson's rookie performance vs. press coverage was historic. And his 2023 target per route run rate vs. the blitz is by far the highest in the NFL.

Wilson ranks as the WR21 for me in Week 8, which is the highest that he's been since Week 1. On a week where no one is on bye, that's certainly noteworthy. I'd start Wilson ahead of DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Jordan Addison, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. One receiver I'm not starting Wilson ahead of is Calvin Ridley. Week 8 feels like an eruption spot for Ridley.

Calvin Ridley bounces back

Ridley has had a long 10 days to get his mind and body right after being held to just five yards on four targets in New Orleans. He now has a low-pressure bounce-back spot available to him against the Steelers.

As outlined by Graham Barfield (check out his work if you're not familiar, Graham is as sharp as they come), Pittsburgh's coverage tendencies line up well for Ridley.

I love the hands-off nature of Pittsburgh's coverage scheme for Ridley.

It's worth noting that Indy's coverage scheme profiles extremely similarly to Pittsburgh's, and Ridley produced only a 4-30 receiving line on eight targets in Week 6. The Steelers have produced even worse cornerback play and have surrendered some legendary upside performances to perimeter receivers.

Ridley sits at WR17 in my most recent rankings (you can find the latest update here), just behind Nico Collins and Terry McLaurin. I'd start Ridley ahead of DeVonta Smith, DJ Moore, and Garrett Wilson. If you are fine embracing more risk, I'd start Ridley over his teammate, even though Christian Kirk has been awesome and has clearly outproduced Ridley recently.

Sorting out the fringe starter range at each position

Those were the player-specific situations that stood out to me as worth discussing in detail this week. Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.

QB 

The number of quarterbacks I consider to be viable starters each week hovered around 23 through the first three weeks. As we've hit bye weeks, that number continues to drop. In Week 4, it was down to 19; in Week 5, 17, and then only 15 in Weeks 6 and 7.

I was surprised to find that even with everyone back from bye, the number of quarterbacks that I want to start in Week 8 is only 15.. Jordan Love, Kirk Cousins, and Geno Smith and Bryce Young are the cut-off point, and I don't necessarily want to start any of them. Love has been wildly inconsistent, the Packers defense practically forces offenses to run the ball, the projected game script and matchup are both brutal for Smith and the Falcons, and Carolina's offense exists entirely on the continued efficacy and health of a 33-year-old Adam Thielen.

And it only gets worse beyond those four. Matthew Stafford has really struggled against pressure and faces the Cowboys. Russell Wilson faces the defense that held him to double-digit passing yardage two weeks ago. Sam Howell's season feels dangerously close to derailing (again). I actually feel relatively safe with Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett as starting options this week! That's a perfect state of the union at QB.

Both Gardner Minshew and Derek Carr have been "getting there" for Fantasy purposes based purely on wild offensive play volume. The Saints produced more offensive plays in Week 7 than any team has in any game this season. Minshew and Carr face each other, and if you believe these two offenses can continue to move the chains, then either QB is a fine Week 8 start. Minshew's Colts are slight home favorites, but the matchup against New Orleans is more difficult than Carr's matchup. I'd prefer to avoid both. I have Minshew ranked as QB20, while Carr is QB22. I'd start them ahead of Baker Mayfield, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Josh Dobbs.

This week's "no questions asked" starters include Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, C.J. Stroud, and Trevor Lawrence. Beyond that, here's how I am categorizing the position this week:

Group 1: Quarterbacks with question marks but upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points

Tier 1 -- Jordan Love, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith
Tier 2 -- Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Sam Howell, Kenny Pickett

If you're looking for upside, these are your guys.

Implied point total for each quarterback's team:

22 -- Cousins
21 -- Smith
20.5 -- Love
19.5 -- Pickett
19.5 -- Wilson
19.25 -- Stafford
18.5 -- Howell

Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup

Tier 1 -- Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott
Tier 2 -- Bryce Young
Tier 3 -- Desmond Ridder, Gardner Minshew, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield

RB 

There are 15 players at the RB position that I want to start, a tier that ends with Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Beyond that, you can find how I'm sorting out the position below.

Group 1: There's definitely upside!

Tier 1 -- Jonathan Taylor
Tier 2 -- James Cook, Aaron Jones, Gus Edwards, D'Onta Foreman
Tier 3 -- Dameon Pierce, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Chuba Hubbard, Brian Robinson
Tier 4 -- Kareem Hunt, Roschon Johnson, Pierre Strong

Group 2: Safe starters if you don't have a higher-upside option that you prefer

Tier 1 -- Joe Mixon
Tier 2 -- Javonte Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White, Najee Harris
Tier 3 -- Darrell Henderson
Tier 4 -- Emari Demercado

Group 3: We're betting on volume. There's not much upside here.

Tier 1 -- AJ Dillon, Tyler Allgeier
Tier 2 -- Royce Freeman

Group 4: Plays that make sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection

Tier 1 -- Jaylen Warren
Tier 2 -- Kareem Hunt, Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, Ezekiel Elliott, Justice Hill, Latavius Murray, Cam Akers

WR 

The Week 8 must-start group of wide receivers ends with Chris Olave, Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, and Davante Adams as the WR11-WR14. Here's who comes next:

Group 1: I think we can trust these players

Tier 1 -- Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk
Tier 2 -- Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Jordan Addison, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Joshua Palmer, Tank Dell
Tier 3 -- Jakobi Meyers, Josh Downs, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Courtland Sutton, Michael Thomas, Rashee Rice, Kendrick Bourne, Romeo Doubs

Group 2: Mystery Box

Tier 1 -- Jaylen Waddle, Calvin Ridley, DeVonta Smith, DJ Moore
Tier 2 -- Drake London, Amari Cooper
Tier 3 -- Gabe Davis, Tyler Lockett, Josh Reynolds, Jayden Reed

Group 3: Desperation Plays

Tier 1 -- Tee Higgins 
Tier 2 -- Jerry Jeudy, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 3 -- Curtis Samuel, Elijah Moore, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Michael Gallup, Rashid Shaheed, Brandin Cooks, Odell Beckham Jr., Jahan Dotson, Braxton Berrios, Demario Douglas, Jauan Jennings

Group 4: I'd really rather avoid them

Tier 1 -- K.J. Osborn, Wan'Dale Robinson, Tutu Atwell, Michael Wilson, DJ Chark, Darius Slayton
Tier 2 -- Jameson Williams, Rondale Moore, Allen Lazard, Tyler Boyd, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jalin Hyatt, Jonathan Mingo, Jake Bobo, Marvin Mims

TE 

Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, and Dalton Kincaid are the tight ends I consider must-starts for Week 8.

Group 1 -- Upside shots

Tier 1 -- Darren Waller, Dalton Schultz, Kyle Pitts, Taysom Hill, Jake Ferguson, Luke Musgrave
Tier 2 -- Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett

Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly

Placement in Group 2 doesn't indicate that I prefer a Group 1 TE. You can find my full Week 8 rankings here for help navigating specific positional start-sit decisions.

Tier 1 -- Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert
Tier 2 -- David Njoku
Tier 3 -- Logan Thomas, Jonnu Smith, Cade Otton, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Trey McBride

Group 3 -- You can find a better option, right?

Tier 1 -- Michael Mayer, Tyler Higbee, Hunter Henry
Tier 2 -- Tyler Conklin, Hayden Hurst, Irv Smith Jr., Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki

Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's, when I set aside time for lineup questions!

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