Beyond the Boxscore: Fantasy Football 2023 Week 11 Lineup Advice from proven expert

Each week, we're going to go beyond the boxscore and dive into the most interesting situations from around the NFL and discuss how they might shape the Fantasy landscape for the upcoming week. My hope is that you leave this article feeling at least a little bit more confident in the reasoning behind your lineup decisions.

I'm going to give advice in this space and hope to be right more than wrong, but most importantly, I hope that you leave these columns with a clearer and fuller understanding of what goes into my rankings here on SportsLine. I'm excited to peel back the curtain a bit and invite you to start thinking about your lineup decisions in a less linear way. We're trying to move away from this player ranks two spots higher than this player, so he's the one to start – lineup decisions are almost always more dynamic than that!

I do my best to create space to answer lineup advice questions on Twitter throughout the week, you might catch me there. My goal is to be more present and available to help SportsLine members with their Fantasy lineup decisions this season. I can't get to every question, though, so I hope that these tiers and comparisons help you feel more confident in your start/sit decisions. Below, you'll find the situations that stood out the most to me when making important lineup decisions.

One player Gibbs is especially high on in Week 11: Kansas City rookie receiver Rashee Rice. The underlying data has been excellent for Rice all season, and the Chiefs pushed Rice's snap rate up to 60% or higher in each of the three games leading up to a Week 10 bye. An inviting Week 11 matchup against the Eagles may be exactly what Rice needs to post a full-blown breakout performance. Gibbs is also all in on a veteran running back! You NEED to see Gibbs' analysis before you lock in your lineup.

So who are the best under-the-radar players to start in Week 11? And which running back should you fade? Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' weekly lineup advice, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!

Rashee Rice has an exciting post-bye opportunity

The Chiefs have averaged a league-high 28.4 points in games following their bye week during the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era, and their post-bye pass rate over expectation trails only the Minnesota Vikings. Kansas City ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation in all other games during that time. When given an extra week to self-scout, the Chiefs have come to the conclusion that more Patrick Mahomes is the answer. I'm curious if that will again be the case, as the 2023 version of this passing offense has been frustratingly inconsistent.

At least in Week 11, more passing is likely to be Kansas City's answer. The Eagles have allowed by far the fewest RB rushing yards per game (54). No RB has topped 60 yards on the ground against this defense. Philly's opponents have the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (66%).

The change that I would most like to see implemented following Kansas City's Week 10 bye is a full-time role for Rashee Rice. Before the season, Chiefs GM Brett Veach mentioned that the Chiefs had package plays installed for Rice and Justyn Ross. Here's the exact quote:

"I think what you'll see from both Justyn and Rashee as the games go on, you'll see them probably have certain packages. Hopefully, they'll continue to grow and progress and produce on the field. That will lead to more utilization within the offense — and graduating from a package player to an every-down receiver."

If anyone on this roster has proven deserving of graduating from a package player to an every-down player, it's Rice.

Yard per route run rate:
(2023 -- minimum 50 routes)

2.30 -- Rice
1.61 -- Justin Watson
1.37 -- Kadarius Toney
0.96 -- Skyy Moore
0.94 -- Marquez Valdes-Scantling

The underlying data has been excellent all season, and the Chiefs pushed Rice's snap rate up to 60% or higher in each of the three games leading up to a Week 10 bye. If we see his role expanded even further in Week 11, Rice could put up massive numbers against Philadelphia. The Eagles have the second-highest opponent slot target rate.

According to the Fantasy Points Data Coverage Matrix, Philadelphia ranks seventh in single-high safety coverage use and has allowed the third-most Fantasy points per dropback when using single-high safety coverage. Against this coverage type, Travis Kelce's target per route run rate skyrockets to 35%. Rice's target per route run rate is actually slightly higher against two-high safety looks (29%) than single-high coverage (27%), but his yard per route run rate (2.64) is higher vs. single-high coverage. I have Rice ranked as the WR30 for Week 11, ahead of Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton, and Jordan Addison.

Keep leaning on Javonte Williams

Josh Jacobs leads the NFL with a 41.8% opportunity share (percentage of a team's total rushes + targets). Christian McCaffrey (38.8%) has the next-highest rate, and Travis Etienne (35.9%) is the only other player with a rate above 35%.

In six games in which he was listed as the starter and wasn't removed due to an injury, Javonte Williams has a 36.5% opportunity share. Over his past three games (all wins), Williams has shares of 37%, 52%, and 39%.

Williams' opportunity share splits in games he started and finished:

31.5% -- Tied or trailing
42.3% -- Playing with a lead

Williams has benefited from positive game scripts lately, no doubt. And a meeting with the streaking Vikings could put an end to his recent string of 20+ touch performances. The Broncos are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, though, for what it's worth.

And if Denver does fall behind, a 31.5% opportunity share is still plenty. Even when trailing by six or more points, the Broncos have fed Williams a 27.9% opportunity share (in games he started and finished). He is the offensive centerpiece. From a projections standpoint, it's tough to beat Williams in Week 11. I'm starting him ahead of Brian Robinson, Devin Singletary, James Conner, Saquon Barkley and Isiah Pacheco. You could justify starting him over any of Aaron Jones, Raheem Mostert, Kenneth Walker, or D'Andre Swift. I have those backs ranked ahead of Williams because I believe they present more upside, but Williams has a higher median point projection than all of them except for Swift.

Derrick Henry is barely a top-24 Fantasy RB in Week 11

Derrick Henry is yet another RB I'm starting Williams ahead of. In fact, there are 23 backs I have ranked ahead of King Henry in Week 11.

Week 10 was yet another in which the rookie Tyjae Spears out-snapped his veteran backfield mate. That has now happened in three of the past four Tennessee games. A Week 11 matchup against Jacksonville presents as yet another Titans game environment in which the passing down back might be called upon more than the early-down grinder.

The Jaguars have a league-high situation-neutral opponent pass rate (66%). Teams pass the ball against this defense. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest RB rushing yards per game (63) but the most RB targets and receptions (7.6) per game. This does not feel like a good matchup for Henry. I have Henry ranked ahead of Dameon Pierce, James Cook, Jaylen Warren, and Najee Harris, but I wouldn't blame you for benching him in favor of anyone from that group.

Sorting out the fringe starter range at each position

Those were the player-specific situations that stood out to me as worth discussing in detail this week. Each week, we'll wrap up this start/sit journey by sorting out the fringe starter range of my rankings at each position.

QB 

There are 17 quarterbacks that I want to start in Week 11, up from 12 last week. 17 is the highest number that we've had in quite some time.

Geno Smith (QB15), Joshua Dobbs (QB16), and Trevor Lawrence (QB17) mark the cut-off point for QBs I want to start. Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, and Matthew Stafford are all decent fringe starters if you're in a pinch.

This week's "no questions asked" starters include Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, C.J. Stroud, Jared Goff, and Dak Prescott. Beyond that, here's how I'm categorizing the position this week:

Group 1: Quarterbacks with question marks but upside to push well north of 20 Fantasy points

Tier 1 -- Justin Fields, Brock Purdy
Tier 2 -- Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Sam Howell
Tier 3 -- Geno Smith, Joshua Dobbs, Trevor Lawrence

If you're looking for upside, these are your guys.

Implied point total for each quarterback's team:

26.5 -- Purdy
23.75 -- Smith
23.75 -- Lawrence
23.25 -- Herbert
23 -- Howell
22 -- Murray
20 -- Fields
20 -- Dobbs

Group 2: Quarterbacks who feel like safe bets to post a score that doesn't hurt your lineup

Tier 1 -- Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford
Tier 2 -- Baker Mayfield, Aidan O'Connell (QB drops off fast after the top-20 in Week 11)

RB 

There are 14 running backs who I am excited to start in Week 11, a tier that ends with D'Andre Swift (RB11), Kenneth Walker (RB12), Aaron Jones (RB13), and Javonte Williams (RB14).

This week's "no questions asked" starters include Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, and De'Von Achane. Beyond that, you can find how I'm sorting out the position below.

Group 1: There's definitely upside!

Tier 1 -- Tony Pollard, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Raheem Mostert, D'Andre Swift, Kenneth Walker
Tier 2 -- Aaron Jones, Brian Robinson
Tier 3 -- Jerome Ford, Ty Chandler, Derrick Henry, Dameon Pierce, James Cook

Group 2: Safe starters if you don't have a higher-upside option that you prefer

Tier 1 -- Isiah Pacheco, James Conner
Tier 2 -- Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson

Group 3: We're betting on volume. There's not much upside here.

Tier 1 -- Javonte Williams, Saquon Barkley, Rachaad White
Tier 2 -- Chuba Hubbard, AJ Dillon

Group 4: Plays that make sense in theory, but I'm not excited by their projection

Tier 1 -- Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, 
Tier 2 -- Kareem Hunt, Zach Charbonnet, D'Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, Tyjae Spears
Tier 3 -- Antonio Gibson, Rico Dowdle, Royce Freeman, Joshua Kelley

WR 

The Week 11 must-start group of wide receivers ends with Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Brandon Aiyuk as the WR8-WR11. Here's who comes next:

Group 1: I think we can trust these players

Tier 1 -- Jaylen Waddle, Christian Kirk, Mike Evans, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson
Tier 2 -- Terry McLaurin, Adam Thielen, Tank Dell, Deebo Samuel
Tier 3 -- Marquise Brown, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Nico Collins
Tier 4 -- Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, Rashee Rice

Group 2: Mystery Box

Tier 1 -- DeAndre Hopkins, DJ Moore
Tier 2 -- Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley, Jordan Addison, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens
Tier 3 -- Christian Watson, Noah Brown, Jayden Reed, Brandin Cooks

Group 3: Desperation Plays

Tier 1 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Romeo Doubs, Gabe Davis, Jerry Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers
Tier 2 -- Elijah Moore, Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Darnell Mooney
Tier 3 -- Rondale Moore, Trey Palmer, Josh Reynolds, Robert Woods, Quentin Johnston, Marvin Mims, Michael Wilson, Tutu Atwell

TE 

Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, and Trey McBride are the tight ends I consider must-starts for Week 11.

Group 1 -- Upside shots

Tier 1 -- Jake Ferguson, George Kittle
Tier 2 -- Cole Kmet, Luke Musgrave, Logan Thomas

Group 2 -- I'm just looking for eight points, honestly

Placement in Group 2 doesn't indicate that I prefer a Group 1 TE. You can find my full Week 11 rankings here for help navigating specific positional start-sit decisions.

Tier 1 -- Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz
Tier 2 -- David Njoku, Tyler Higbee, Cade Otton

Group 3 -- You can find a better option, right?

Tier 1 -- Chigoziem Okonkwo, Michael Mayer, Connor Heyward
Tier 2 -- Gerald Everett, Donald Parham, Daniel Bellinger, Tyler Conklin

Good luck with your lineup decisions this week! Be sure to hit me up on Twitter during one of the Q&A's, when I set aside time for lineup questions!

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