This just might be the game of the year, with the NFL saving its very best regular-season contest for the final Monday night game of the season. And it certainly feels like the ultimate coin flip for me.

It's difficult to separate these two teams. Given their overall balance, the caliber of that quarterbacks and that both now have a proven payoff pedigree, there aren't too many areas where either the Bengals or Bills seem to be the overwhelming favorite. Looking at the totals and sides, this is a difficult game to handicap (at least it has been for me).

Both teams are relatively healthy. Both are on a hot streak. Both have ample enough motivation to cap a Week 17 in which motivation has been in short supply. As I've crunched the numbers, examined the trends and looked at the stats, I keep finding myself coming back to this being a 27-24 game, or something very close to it -- maybe even requiring overtime to get there -- which is pretty much exactly as it is priced. Man, those guys and gals in Vegas are good.

So with those caveats out of the way, let's take a look at the last Monday night game. I've got some slight leans here, but nothing I'm pounding the table for.

Bills at Bengals

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Moneyline: Bengals +100

I'm embracing the true home-field advantage that's finally been reignited in Cincinnati. I'm embracing Joe Burrow being the latter-day Joe Montana and this being the kind of game, against a rival elite gunslinger, that he finds a way to win. I'm embracing the Bengals being 20-3 against the spread in their last 23 (including the playoffs) and them coming up big in big spots. And since we are talking about them a point and a half, I'll go ahead and entertain my hunch that they do in fact win this football game. The pass protection has been much better during their seven-game win streak (though losing starting right tackle La'el Collins gives me pause), and this feels like the kind of game in which the loss of Von Miller for the season could loom large for the Bills. If Bills star safety Jordan Poyer misses this game, then I feel a little better about this pick.

Total: Over 49.5

It's simple math. 27 + 24 = 51. I'm not going to try to fool you. That's how I'm looking at it, and, as with seemingly everything about this game, that's a tight needle to thread.

Bills Team Total Under 25.5 Points (-110)

The Bengals should have their bookend defensive tackles back for this game, and their defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, lives for games like this. His astute halftime adjustments have been vital against the best defenses in the league for two years now, and I am banking on more of the same here. I'll bet Buffalo will run the ball a fair amount. Last week it took the Bears defense collapsing in the second half – that train is always on time – for the Bills to score into the 30s. This feels more like their games against the Jets, Patriots, Ravens and Chiefs, where 24 ends up being the magic number.

Same Game Parlay (+1200)

• Bengals ML
• Josh Allen TD
• Joe Burrow Over 281.5 Passing Yards

Player Props

Joe Burrow Over 281.5 Passing Yards 

The running game has been hit or miss for the Bengals and losing Collins will show up in the ground game, I believe. This feels like a game that will come down to which QB outduels the other down the stretch, and the Bengals have so many weapons in the passing game. I see plenty of volume in the air here, even against a very stout defense.

Tee Higgins Over 68.5 Receiving Yards

The Bills can't guard everyone and Ja'Marr Chase will draw plenty of attention. Higgins seems fully back after that odd game in which he played one snap. He's gone exceeded 100 yards in three of the last five games in which he played more than a single snap.

Trenton Irwin TD

I'm going to dabble in a few longshots here with no more Monday night games until next September. Irwin gets a 45% snap rate or higher more often than you'd think. He catches whatever is throw to him (albeit not nearly the same quantity as the big names on the Cincinnati roster) and, as I just mentioned, you can't cover everyone. He has three TDs over the last three games he's played. He seems to have a knack for finding holes in zones.

Josh Allen Over 50.5 Rushing Yards

This could be the separator in this game. Allen adds an element to the Bills offense that few quarterbacks can. I'm expecting that adrenaline takes over in-game, he sees all that green grass at the second level in those zone looks, and he takes off.

Josh Allen First TD

Indulge me in a theory here. But Allen has thrown his share of picks in the red zone this season against decent opponents and has tried to do too much through the air and force things at times. I see a strong early game script from the Bills and them getting inside the 10, and Allen rolling out and keeping it for a score.  Feel free to go with just a regular ol' Allen anytime TD as well (+185).

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