Astros vs. Orioles Tuesday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Framber Valdez set at 5.5 hits allowed in first start after no-hitter

The marquee matchup around baseball on Tuesday night already was Houston at Baltimore in a possible American League playoff preview, but an added storyline is that it's the first start on the mound for Astros ace Framber Valdez since he threw his first career no-hitter. Valdez is set at over/under 5.5 hits allowed at DraftKings against one of the league's top offensive teams. Houston is a -130 favorite.

I'm contractually obligated to remind you that the only pitcher to throw back-to-back no-hitters was Cincinnati's Johnny Vander Meer in June 1938. Most sportsbooks will give you a daily yes-only prop on whether there will be a no-hitter thrown by any pitcher on that given day.

The Astros and Orioles have never met in the postseason but that very well may change in October, as both teams are almost locks to be in the AL playoffs. Baltimore has the best record in the Junior Circuit and a three-game lead atop the AL Central. It is -10000 at DK to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016 and +2500 to not. That prop may come down soon with the absurd prices.

Houston is three games back of Texas in the AL West, but the Rangers are pretty beaten up right now with serious injuries to the likes of All-Stars Jacob deGrom (out for season), Josh Jung (may miss rest of regular season) and Jonah Heim (also might). The Astros hold the second wild card spot and are -500 to make the playoffs and +400 to not.

Of course, last week Houston brought back Justin Verlander in a trade. With Verlander temporarily in Queens with the Mets, Valdez (9-7, 3.07 ERA) moved into the No. 1 role and that seemed fine for a while, but then the lefty went into a three-start funk out of the break where he allowed a combined 15 runs and 21 hits over 15 innings. Perhaps Valdez was bolstered by the Verlander trade last Tuesday as that night, Valdez went out and threw his no-no at home against Cleveland with just one walk, seven strikeouts and a minuscule 93 pitches.

Those were the fewest pitches thrown in a no-hitter since David Cone's perfect game in 1999. It was the third no-hitter this season and first-ever solo one by an Astros lefty. Including the playoffs, three of past five no-hitters in MLB have now been thrown by Astros (Cristian Javier started the last two and didn't finish either), but Valdez's was the first solo no-no by a Houston pitcher since Verlander in 2019.

Among 12 individual pitchers in Astros history to throw a no-hitter, Valdez became the first to do so while facing the minimum 27 batters. Martin Maldonado's three no-hitters caught are tied for the third most in MLB history, behind only Carlos Ruiz and Jason Varitek, with four each. Dusty Baker has now managed five no-hitters, tied for the fourth most in MLB history.

If you were wondering, and I was, the Orioles have been no-hit 15 times but not since Aug. 12, 2015, when Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma did so. Valdez has pitched 14.2 career innings against Baltimore without a decision and a 3.68 ERA. Adam Frazier has seen him the most of any current Orioles batter and is 2-for-12 with five Ks. Valdez is also set at +165 to personally get a win and O/U 17.5 outs recorded, 6.5 strikeouts and 2.5 earned runs.

It's rookie right-hander Grayson Rodriguez (2-3, 6.09 ERA) for the Orioles. He was born in Houston and has yet to face his hometown club. Rodriguez is +205 to personally win. 

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