2026 Virginia Derby picks, odds: Horse racing writer has best bets for Saturday's Kentucky Derby prep race

The Bob Baffert-trained Buetane will try to lock down a spot in the Kentucky Derby when the starting gate opens in the 2026 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs in New Kent, Virginia. Named after Padres pitcher Walker Buehler, Buetane has one win, two seconds and one third in four career starts. He is coming off a third-place finish in the Southwest Stakes. For Saturday, Buetane has been installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the Virginia Derby odds. Confessional (4-1), High Camp (9-2), Lockstocknpharoah (5-1) and Clocker Special (8-1) round out the top five choices in the odds among the 10 Virginia Derby horses. Post time for the Virginia Derby is 5:10 p.m. ET, with temperatures forecasted to be in the low 60s around post time. 

With several talented horses set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you NEED to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2026 Virginia Derby picks or horse racing predictions considering what he pulled off two weeks ago.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. 

Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. Hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout.

And just two weeks ago, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.

Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Virginia Derby field and revealed his picks. We can tell you that Menez is completely fading Buetane, even though he is the 5-2 morning-line favorite. "I'm going to completely fade Buetane, who could not hold on to win the Southwest Stakes at a shorter distance and doesn't look like a nine-furlong horse," he says. Menez is not using Buetane in any of his Virginia Derby wagers.

However, Menez's top pick is a horse who is "moving in the right direction." He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is "in the mix at a big number." Menez is including these horses in his 2026 Virginia Derby bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which horses they are before making any 2026 Virginia Derby picks of your own.

So which horse wins the 2026 Virginia Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine NOW to get the top 2026 Virginia Derby picks and bets, all from the expert who hit the Pick 5 at Gulfstream Park for $4,648 just two weeks ago.