2026 Tampa Bay Derby picks, odds: Horse racing writer has best bets for Saturday's Kentucky Derby prep race

A spot in the Kentucky Derby will be at stake on Saturday when the starting gate opens in the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Fla. The winner of the Kentucky Derby prep race will receive 50 qualifying points, which will be more than enough to earn a spot in the starting gate in the first leg of the Triple Crown. For Saturday, the Brad Cox-trained Further Ado has been installed as the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby odds. Canaletto (5-2), Powershift (7-2), The Puma (8-1) and Redland Rebels (10-1) round out the top five choices in the odds among the nine Tampa Bay Derby horses. Post time for the Tampa Bay Derby is 5:35 p.m. ET, with temperatures forecasted to be in the high 70s around post time. 

With several talented horses set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you NEED to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2026 Tampa Bay Derby picks or horse racing predictions considering what he pulled off last week.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. 

Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. Hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout.

And just last week, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.

Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby field and revealed his picks. We can tell you that Menez is completely fading Further Ado, even though he is the 9-5 morning-line favorite. "While his maiden victory was absurdly fast, his other three starts are nothing special," he says. Menez is not using Further Ado in any of his Tampa Bay Derby wagers.

However, Menez's top pick is a horse who "should be able to get a forward, ground-saving trip." He also is high on a longshot who is "within striking distance of the favorites." Menez is including these horses in his 2026 Tampa Bay Derby bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which horses they are before making any 2026 Tampa Bay Derby picks of your own.

So which horse wins the 2026 Tampa Bay Derby? What longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine NOW to get the top 2026 Tampa Bay Derby picks and bets, all from the expert who hit the Pick 5 at Gulfstream Park for $4,648 just last week.