2026 Southwest Stakes picks, odds: Horse racing writer has best bets for Friday's Kentucky Derby prep race

The Ray Ashford Jr.-trained D'Code will try to prove that his ultrafast career debut victory was not a fluke when he leaves the starting gate in the 2026 Southwest Stakes on Friday at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. A 3-year-old son of champion sprinter Speightstown, D'Code won his only career start by 8¼ lengths, earning a 99 Beyer Speed Figure, the best figure that any current 3-year-old has run. For Friday, D'Code is 3-1 in the 2026 Southwest Stakes odds. (The Bob Baffert-trained Litmus Test, who was originally installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite, will scratch from the race.) Buetane (4-1), Strategic Risk (9-2), Liberty National (10-1) and Soldier N Diplomat (12-1) round out the top five on the toteboard among the 13 Southwest Stakes horses. Post time for the Southwest Stakes is 5:40 p.m. ET, with temperatures forecasted to be in the high 60s around post time. 

With several talented horses set to enter the starting gate on Friday, you NEED to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2026 Southwest Stakes picks or horse racing predictions.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. 

Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. Hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout.

And in November, Menez finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Southwest Stakes field and revealed his picks. We can tell you that Menez's top pick is not D'code, even though he is the 3-1 favorite. "I have serious doubts about D'code's ability to stretch his speed beyond six furlongs," he says. "At 3-1, he's an auto fade." Menez is not using D'code in any of his Southwest wagers.

Instead, Menez's top pick is a double-digit longshot with a "big late run." Menez also is high on another double-digit longshot who "could move forward" on Friday. Menez is including these horses in his 2026 Southwest Stakes bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which horses they are before making any 2026 Southwest Stakes picks of your own.

So which horse wins the 2026 Southwest Stakes? What other double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine NOW to get the top 2026 Southwest Stakes picks and bets, all from the expert who nailed last year's Kentucky Derby trifecta and exacta.