2026 Florida Derby picks, odds: Horse racing writer has best bet for Saturday's Kentucky Derby prep race

Three of the top four favorites for the Kentucky Derby will square off in the most important Derby prep race of the year when the starting gate opens in the 2026 Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. In the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool Chief Wallabee (8-1), Commandment (12-1) and Nearly (12-1) all closed among the top four choices, just behind the favored Paladin (8-1). Those three are set to meet in the Florida Derby, and if any of those wins, he would establish himself as the horse to beat in the first leg of the Triple Crown, on May 2. For Saturday Chief Wallabee has been installed as the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the Florida Derby odds, just ahead of Commandment (5-2) and Nearly (3-1). The Puma (9-2) rounds out the top four choices in the odds among the eight Florida Derby horses. (Redland Rebels is expected to scratch.) Post time for the Florida Derby is 6:42 p.m. ET, with temperatures forecasted to be in the high-70s around post time with a chance of showers. 

With several talented horses set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you NEED to see what SportsLine horse racing expert Gene Menez has to say before making any 2026 Florida Derby picks or horse racing predictions considering what he pulled off in last year's race.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet. In 2024, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. 

Menez excels on horse racing's biggest days. In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall. Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot. Hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48. In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout.

And just last month, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big, hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.

Last year Menez put his handicapping skills up against the best horseplayers and finished 115th out of 643 entries in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge, the biggest live-money handicapping tournament in the country.

Now, Menez has handicapped the 2026 Florida Derby field and revealed his picks. We can tell you that Menez's top pick is not Chief Wallabee, even though he is the 2-1 favorite. "The 2-1 price is too short for me to make him my top pick," he says. Menez prefers another horse over Chief Wallabee in the Florida Derby.

Instead, Menez's top pick is a horse who is most likely to "move forward off his last race." Menez is including this horse in his 2026 Florida Derby bets, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY NEED to see which horse it is before making any 2026 Florida Derby picks of your own.

So which horse wins the 2026 Florida Derby? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? ... Join SportsLine NOW to get the top 2026 Florida Derby picks and bets, all from the expert who hit the Pick 5 at Gulfstream Park for $4,648 just last month.