2025 NFL Week 1 teams that fit a successful betting trend going back two decades

The 2025 NFL season is quickly approaching, with the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles set to host the rival Dallas Cowboys in the NFL Kickoff Game on Sept. 4 at Lincoln Financial Field. NFL Kickoff Weekend concludes on Sept. 8 with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings at Soldier Field.

The Eagles are 7-point favorites in the season opener, while the Bears are 1.5-point favorites.

Both of those games feature a playoff team from last season facing a team that did not make the playoffs, which brings up an interesting NFL betting trend. According to a 2012 thesis by Michael D. DiFilippo, who was then an undergraduate student at Ohio University, there were "statistically significant" inefficiencies in the Week 1 betting market between the 2004 and '11 seasons. Specifically, teams that had made the playoffs the previous season covered the spread just 34% of the time in Week 1 when facing teams that didn't make the playoffs the previous season. SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman crunched the numbers since 2012 and found that the trend has continued, with the previous year's playoff teams recording a 56-75-1 against-the-spread record (42.8%) against non-playoff teams.

Hochman, who is 83-66-3 (plus $1,217 for $100 players) over the past four NFL seasons for SportsLine, has taken this betting trend, applied it to Week 1 of the upcoming season and studied whether bettors should continue to fade playoff teams facing non-playoff teams. His conclusions may surprise you.

In what Week 1 games is the non-playoff team from last season worth playing, based on the 2012 Ohio University thesis? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Jeff Hochman's Week 1 analysis, from the expert who is 83-66-3 (plus $1,217 ) over the past four NFL seasons!