The 2024 Shriners Children's 500 will take place on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway, with the green flag scheduled to drop at 3:30 p.m. ET. The track has hosted the NASCAR championship race the last four seasons and the spring race has also produced plenty of excitement lately, with overtime finishes in 2020 and 2023. Hendrick Motorsports will hope to continue its exciting start to the season after collecting wins at Daytona and Las Vegas. After his win last week, Kyle Larson is the 11-2 favorite in the 2024 Shriners Children's 500 odds, while Daytona 500 champion William Byron is 15-2. Defending NASCAR champion Ryan Blaney is sandwiched between the two at 7-1 in the 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds.

Our proven projection model has simulated the 2024 Shriners Children's 500 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard. Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

McClure's model was red-hot during the 2023 season, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

It also called its first victory of the 2024 season with Larson winning again in Las Vegas last week for a 21-5 payout. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 16 winners since 2021 and hit nine last year alone! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship and released its projections.

The model knows Phoenix Raceway first began hosting the NASCAR Cup Series in 1988 and has hosted two races annually since 2005. Byron is the defending champion of the spring race, while Ross Chastain and Ryan Blaney had big celebrations in Phoenix last fall. Chastain won the race outright, while Blaney finished second to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship. The track is a one-mile dogleg oval and 12 of the last 16 races there have had winning margins of less than a second.

For the 2024 Shriners Children's 500, we can tell you the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 12-1 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: William Byron, one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five! There are far better values in the 2024 Shriners Children's 500 starting lineup.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Phoenix odds longer than 10-1 to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who he is before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2024 Shriners Children's 500, and which EPIC longshots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard, all from the model that called the winners of nine races in 2023 and nailed Larson's victory last week!