2024 NFL Week 5 betting power ratings: Let's worry about the Chiefs and how to value all 32 teams
Week 4 in the NFL featured perfection from Jared Goff, near perfection from Jayden Daniels for a second straight week, ugly losses by all four AFC East teams and a team score 26 points in a win without an offensive touchdown. It also featured another devastating injury on a Super Bowl contender with Rashee Rice potentially lost for the year.
With no Rice or Hollywood Brown, it's fair to wonder if the Chiefs offense has the juice to make another Super Bowl run once the calendar turns to 2025. Surely they'll be in the mix as usual, but with Travis Kelce looking like he's finally taking a step back despite a quality performance against the Chargers, and with Xavier Worthy unlikely to be ready to handle alpha receiver targets, who will Patrick Mahomes turn to be the focal point of the passing game?
To be sure, it's possible they just make it work with the weapons on hand. After all, they won the Super Bowl in 2022 with JuJu Smith-Schuster as their top receiver (albeit with a much better version of Kelce). Maybe he ascends back to a key role, or Justin Watson emerges as a reliable weapon, or Andy Reid rolls out a three tight end powerhouse with Kelce, Noah Gray and rookie Jared Wiley. Or the Chiefs could emphasize rushing and defense once Isiah Pacheco is healthy.
Or they go out and get a receiver. Davante Adams is the obvious name on the trade block, though the Chiefs will surely have to pay up to get the Raiders to move him within the division. Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins are two other veterans in the last year of their contracts on teams that appear to be going nowhere. Fitting anyone under the cap with less than $5 million available is going to be tough, and that likely rules out a player ineligible for a reworked deal like the franchise-tagged Tee Higgins.
At any rate, we have to judge the Chiefs as they are for Week 5 when considering our spread power ratings, and for the first time this season, that means not having them atop the league. While they're 4-0, each of those wins could be categorized as surviving more than thriving. A toe cost the Ravens a chance at upsetting the Chiefs in Week 1, a fumble-return TD and a last-second FG gave Kansas City a one-point win in Week 2, two red-zone stops were needed to beat the Falcons in Week 3 and it took another to avoid a fourth-quarter deficit against the severely beat-up Chargers offense last week. It doesn't take much more than changing the outcome of one close play per game for us to be in full-blown panic mode when it comes to the Kansas City Chiefs.
What are NFL spread power ratings? You can check out the explainer in how to build and maintain NFL power ratings in our Week 1 version of this column. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off this week. I went 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks from 2017-23 and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) from 2015-23 in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success.Â
Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? And which spreads are the furthest off where they should be? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 5 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!Â
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