2024 NFL Week 1 betting power ratings: How to value all 32 teams, and which spreads are furthest off the mark
Get the edge over the sportsbooks in Week 1 and beyond by developing a power rating system to stay ahead of the lines
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Developing a power ratings system for NFL betting is a key component in my long-term success picking against the spread. For years, I've assigned ratings and home-field advantage numbers to all 32 NFL teams and then updated those ratings week to week throughout the season in order to calculate where I would set the spread in every NFL game. When there is a big enough difference between my projected spread and the actual spread in the market, I know I've found a likely betting opportunity as long as I'm not missing any information.
On that front, I've made some key changes to the NFL spread power ratings I released when the NFL released its schedule back in May, as I've had the chance to dive further into every team while accounting for injuries, roster moves and so on.
What are NFL spread power ratings? They are numbers typically ranging from +10 to -10 that let you know how much better or worse a team is than league average. The number of points added or removed from that midpoint represent how much a team is worth to the spread. For example, if you think the Seahawks are the midpoint of the league, their power rating would be a zero. If you think the Falcons are a little bit better, you'd make them a +1. The Cowboys may be another step above and worth a +2 rating. Going the other way, you may think the Saints or Jaguars are a -1 or -2 team as slightly below average. The first step to beating the market is doing a better job of assessing each team's power rating than the market.
After you've rated all 32 teams in this fashion, you can take the difference between two teams in a scheduled matchup to determine what the line would be on a neutral field. In our example above, we'd say the Cowboys should be favored by one point against the Falcons on a neutral field. Then you add in home field advantage, which for a long time was considered three points as a standard but is actually lower on average in this era of football. I actually determine unique home field advantage totals for each team based on data from the last five years.
I encourage you to go through this process to build what you think each line should be for Week 1 and see where the market disagrees. Then, digest what we see on the field for that slate of 16 games and adjust accordingly to come up with your projected lines for Week 2. Or, you can read on to see my ratings for every team and where I think the market is off in Week 1. I'm 636-534-34 (+4899) on ATS picks over the last seven years and even better with my top five picks each week, going 428-327-25 (56.7%) over the last nine years in the big Las Vegas spread picks contests. My power ratings have been a big part of maintaining that success.
Which teams are projected to be much better in Week 1 than they were at the end of the 2023 season? And are any teams capable of joining the Chiefs and 49ers in the top tier of the NFL? ... Join SportsLine right now to see Week 1 NFL power ratings from the expert who's 636-534-34 on ATS picks from 2017-23, returning $4,899 to $100 players!
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