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2023 South Point 400 odds, picks: Projected NASCAR at Las Vegas leaderboard, predictions from proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2023 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway 10,000 times and revealed its NASCAR picks

By@Mike5754Updated: Oct 15, 2023 1:39PM UTC . 3 min read

The 2023 NASCAR Playoffs will continue with the beginning of the Round of 8 this Sunday. The 2023 South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway will kick off the penultimate round of the postseason with the green flag scheduled to drop at 2:30 p.m. ET. Kyle Larson is the 9-2 favorite in the 2023 South Point 400 odds followed by William Byron at 11-2 and Denny Hamlin at 6-1. Tyler Reddick and Martin Truex Jr. are both priced at 15-2 and round out the top five in the NASCAR at Las Vegas odds.

Our proven NASCAR projection model has simulated the race 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard. Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

McClure's model is red-hot in the 2023 season, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). Then last week in Talladega, it correctly predicted Ryan Blaney to win at 12-1. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 14 winners since 2021! Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2023 South Point 400 and released its projections.

The model knows that Las Vegas Motor Speedway has hosted the NASCAR Cup Series since 1998 and it's been home to two races on the NASCAR schedule each year since 2018. Byron captured the first of his six wins so far this season in the spring race at LVMS and he enters Sunday's race sitting atop the 2023 NASCAR standings. Hendrick Motorsports has taken the checkered flag in three of the last five races in Las Vegas so it comes as no surprise that Larson and Byron are the top two favorites for the South Point 400.

For the 2023 South Point 400, we can tell you the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 14-1 longshot in the latest 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: The model says Byron, one of the Vegas favorites at 11-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five! There are far better values in the 2023 South Point 400 starting lineup.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2023 NASCAR at Las Vegas odds of 14-1 or higher to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

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