2023 NL Rookie of the Year odds: Marlins' Eury Perez could be sent back to minors after Wednesday's start vs. Mariners despite stellar numbers

One of the most impressive rookies in MLB this season has been 20-year-old Marlins right-hander Eury Perez, who has thus far lived up to his billing as the No. 6 overall prospect in the sport. Miami is contending for the NL East title and is clearly better with Perez on the roster, yet there's a chance he will be sent back to the minors at some point after Wednesday's start in Seattle. Perez is +280 at Caesars Sportsbook to record a win tonight as the Marlins try to avoid a sweep.

The 6-foot-8 Perez was the first (and remains still the only) MLB player to have been born in 2003. Perez, who turned 20 on April 15, made his big-league debut on May 12 for Miami as the youngest pitcher in franchise history and has proven he belongs. He's 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in his six starts, already good for a Wins Above Replacement of 1.0. Perez has a lower ERA in his six starts for the Marlins (2.17) than he did in six at Double-A Jacksonville (2.32) before the call-up.

For a point of comparison, Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, has been worth a WAR of 0.5 so far this year.

The Marlins are huge surprises at 37-31. They're in second place in the NL East, four games behind Atlanta. Does Miami have staying power to win the division? Probably not if the Braves stay healthy, but season-long wild card contention seems likely. So why send Perez down now?

The Marlins intend treat his innings limit very cautiously. Perez pitched 78 minor-league innings as a rookie in 2021, 77 last season and has pitched 60 innings this season between the majors and minors. The Marlins will absolutely not let him double his 2022 innings workload. The theoretical target range is 100-120 innings.

If Perez stays in the majors and continues to average six innings per start, he might have only eight more starts before needing to be shut down. But if he's sent back down, the Marlins could start him once per week or every 10 days or so and potentially bring him back to the majors later this summer if they remain in the playoff race and need him. Perez is currently +3000 at Caesars Sportsbook to win NL Rookie of the Year, but that's not a wise wager if he won't be around much longer. Miami also will need to clear space for rehabbing starting pitchers Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto at some point. Rogers was transferred to the 60-day IL on Tuesday, and could still be far from a return.

Luis Castillo starts tonight for Seattle – he was a former Marlins prospect but never pitched in the majors for them, instead sent to Cincinnati in January 2017 in the Dan Straily trade (oops). The Reds shipped Castillo to Seattle at last year's trade deadline. Castillo is on track to potentially make his third All-Star team. In 13 starts, he's 4-4 with a 2.70 ERA and a team-leading 92 strikeouts. At home, Castillo is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA. He is +110 to record a win.

MLB batting leader Luis Arraez of the Marlins is 4-for-4 off Castillo with three doubles as Arraez continues to flirt with a .400 average. He was there not too long ago, but is in a minor slump and is now down to .382.

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