2023 MLB stolen base leader odds: Red Sox's Adalberto Mondesi favored as steals expected to rise league-wide with new rules

Two of the big rule changes in Major League Baseball this season are a pitch clock and expansion of the bases, both of which are expected to lead to a small explosion of stolen base attempts. The base paths have effectively shrunk by four inches due to the new 18-square inch bases. Pitchers are also now limited in how many pick-offs they can attempt. New Red Sox shortstop Adalberto Mondesi is the +500 favorite at DraftKings to lead the majors in steals.

In January, Boston acquired Mondesi from Kansas City for pitcher Josh Taylor. Mondesi led the majors in triples (10) in 2019 (when he also had a career-high 43 steals) and stolen bases (24) in '20 but hasn't been on the field much the past two seasons due to injury.

He played in only 35 games in 2021 because of left hamstring and left oblique injuries, and Mondesi tore his left ACL on April 26, 2022, which ended last season early. He is not likely to be ready for Opening Day, but has started baseball activities with hitting and fielding drills.

Mondesi should primarily play short when healthy with Xander Bogaerts now in San Diego, but also could see time at second base. Mondesi has batted just .244/.280/.408 as a major leaguer. He's as fast as anyone but has to get on base first.

As part of the pitch clock addition, pitchers can only step off the rubber to reset or try a pick off twice per plate appearance. They are allowed to step off or attempt a pickoff throw a third time but will be charged a balk if no out is recorded. Expect a surge in stolen base tries. Last year with the pitch clock and bigger bases imposed across the full-season minor leagues, there were an average of 2.81 stolen base attempts per game, up from 2.52 in 2021 and 2.23 in 2019 – there were no minor-league seasons in 2020.

No MLB player has recorded 50 steals since 2017. Last year, Miami's Jon Berti swiped 41, and only five reached 30. Berti is a +2000 longer shot to repeat as steals champion. The stolen-base attempts rate per team last year was just 0.67. It was 0.60 in 2021, the lowest since 1964 (0.58). Boston had 52 steals as a team last year, 27th in the majors. Texas led with 128.

Atlanta's Ronald Acuña Jr. (+600), Oakland's Esteury Ruiz (+700), Baltimore's Cedric Mullins (+800) and Seattle's Julio Rodriguez (+1200) round out the favorites to win the MLB stolen base crown. Mullins was third last year with 34. Rodriguez had 25 on the way to winning AL Rookie of the Year.

We get our first look at the MLB rules changes on Friday with the first two spring training games: Texas-Kansas City and Seattle-San Diego. 

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