2023 MLB second-half futures odds: Bettors at sportsbook poised to cash big on Reds and Red Sox season win totals, but lose big on Mets
MLB's second half starts Friday night with every team in action – weather permitting.
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Sportsbooks didn't used to offer daily updated MLB win total odds because it was tough to repost and update those over a long 162-game season. Thus, bettors would only have a few opportunities during the season to bet updated win totals, with the primary time being at the All-Star break. While the books now do offer daily win total updates for the most part, we come out of the All-Star break Friday with BetMGM exposed big time on the Reds and Red Sox, but in great shape on the Mets.
Cincinnati (50-41) had an Over/Under win total of just 64.5 entering the season after winning 62 games last year and with manager David Bell on a scorching-hot seat. Under 64.5 bettors probably were feeling pretty good when the Reds were 7-15 and 8.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. Since then, Cincinnati is 43-26, the second-best record in the majors in that span, and leads the Central by a game over Milwaukee – which Cincinnati hosts Friday.
The Reds could become the first team to win a division after losing at least 100 games the season before. Their updated win total at the book is 84.5, the biggest jump of any team since Opening Day. Overall, 85% of all Cincinnati win total action is on the Over -- with the vast majority of that on 64.5.
Boston (48-43) and the rest of the AL East would make history if every team finishes above .500 this season; last year, only the Red Sox finished with a losing record in the division. After losing All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts to San Diego in free agency over the winter and with some serious starting pitching questions, the Sox opened with a win total of 76.5 – which was the most-wagered Over at BetMGM. Boston's updated number is 83.5.
While Cincinnati has one of the lower payrolls in the majors and Boston is middle-of-the-pack, the Mets have the highest in league history. Yet New York comes out of the break at 42-48 with a possible fire sale looming by the Aug. 1 trade deadline. The Mets are 18.5 games out of the NL East lead and seven games out of the final wild card spot. If the Mets don't get hot, starting Friday vs. the Dodgers, to start shaving that deficit down, Max Scherzer, Mark Canha and a few others might be dealt by Aug. 1.
After winning 101 games last year, New York was set at O/U 95.5 for 2023, with 71% of the bets coming in on the Over. Considering the Mets would have to go 54-18 in the second half to land that Over, it's probably safe to say that's a big win for the book.
The Mets' updated total is 81.5. That's the third-biggest drop from the start of the season behind Kansas City (69.5 wins to 52.5) and St. Louis (89.5 to 75.5).
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