2023 College World Series LSU vs. Florida odds, trends: Bettors mixed on winner-take-all title game; will Tigers ace Paul Skenes be allowed to pitch?

For the first time since 2021, we have a winner-take-all game in the College World Series as No. 5 LSU and No. 2 Florida, both of the SEC, play the finale of their best-of-three series in Omaha on Monday night. The Gators are the "home" team but the Tigers are -145 favorites at BetMGM with the total set at 9 runs. UF winning would be a good overall outcome for the book but not LSU, which may or may not have the services of ace pitcher Paul Skenes. Click here for expert picks.

Recent history favors Florida after the Gators forced tonight's game with a shocking 24-4 rout in Game 2 on Sunday. The 24 runs set a CWS record, and the 20-run victory was the largest margin in CWS Championship Final history. It was the Gators' school-record 54th win of the season, eclipsing the 2011 team's 53. Florida was as long as +1000 to win the national title this season at BetMGM, +800 entering the Regionals, +750 entering the Super Regionals and +400 entering the CWS. The Gators are now +110.

Seven of the 10 teams to force a Game 3 in the College World Series Finals have gone on to win the title, including each of the past five. At the sportsbook, Florida is taking 59% of the bets and 45% of the handle for Game 3. On the total, 55% of the bets and 83% of the money is on the Over.

LSU (53-17) opened the season as the +450 national title favorite, was +700 entering the Regionals, +600 entering the Super Regionals, +375 entering the CWS and is now -145 for Monday. The Tigers had taken the most money of any school to win it all entering the College World Series. Outfielder Dylan Crews was named the 45th winner of the Golden Spikes Award on Sunday as the nation's top player.

We know Crews, who might be the No. 1 overall pick by Pittsburgh in next month's MLB Draft, will be in the lineup tonight. Will Tigers ace Paul Skenes? The right-hander, named National Pitcher of the Year and the winner of the Dick Howser Award, is considered one of the top college pitchers in recent history and also will be a first-round pick next month -- it would be an upset if he's not chosen with one of the first two picks. Skenes is No. 1 in the nation in strikeouts (209), strikeouts per nine innings (15.33) and WHIP (0.75), and he is No. 2 in ERA (1.69).

The ace's workload is the concern. Since June 17, Skenes has thrown 243 pitches in wins over Tennessee and Wake Forest, and his professional future is potentially on the line. LSU coach Jay Johnson was noncommittal after his team's Game 2 defeat about Skenes' status. If he throws significant innings tonight, Skenes could become the eighth pitcher to reach 20 innings in a CWS since 2000.

Thatcher Hurd has a 1.50 ERA in six innings pitched at the CWS and is expected to start for the Tigers, with Skenes perhaps serving as a closer. Meanwhile, Florida will turn to Jac Caglianone. He was finished 3-for-6 with a pair of home runs and five RBI in Monday's win at the plate. The 6-foot-5 two-way standout is 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA this year on the mound.

LSU is looking for its seventh national title and first since 2009, while Florida eyes its second title (2017). 

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