2022 World Series odds, trends: Sportsbook most exposed on Mets to win Fall Classic; big bet alert on Angels

Major League Baseball's Opening Day is upon us, and to no surprise the Los Angeles Dodgers are the +500 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook to win the World Series for the second time in three years. The Dodgers have the biggest payroll in the majors and have four ex-MVP winners on the roster. While Los Angeles is taking plenty of futures action at the book, it is much more exposed on the crosstown Angels and most of all the New York Mets.

Because the Dodgers are at a relatively short price to win the Fall Classic and taking the second-most money (13 percent) and third-most tickets (11 percent), the book isn't overly exposed due to the short price.

"Some people say there's no value with 4/1, 5/1 before the season," said Eric Biggio, Head Baseball Trader at Caesars Sportsbook. "But you're looking at a Dodger team that's projected to win 100 games, and I don't see how they don't get near there. If you've got that ticket in September and October, they're going to be a projected favorite in all of their series and that original ticket looks like value then. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking a shot with the Dodgers at this price because it's only going to get shorter."

Betting MLB futures is very different than, say, the NFL where a small-market team like Buffalo or Green Bay will take massive action to win a Super Bowl. Market size doesn't matter in the NFL because every team shares in national revenue. In MLB, it matters incredibly because of local TV contracts. It's why the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees all are projected to have payrolls north of $240 million this season, while the Pirates and A's are under $40 million.

The new collective bargaining agreement did little to change the gap between the haves and have-nots. If the Dodgers need to acquire a big-name expensive player at the deadline, they won't blink. The Tampa Bay Rays can't do that.

A lot of the Mets money came in before the Jacob deGrom injury as the two-time Cy Young winner could be out the first two months with a shoulder injury. That moved the Mets from +1100 to +1400 to win the World Series, but plenty of money has still been flowing at that longer price with the assumption deGrom will be fine by the summer. The Mets are taking the biggest MLB lean in money wagered (21 percent) and number of tickets (14 percent). The Yankees at +1200 are second in tickets (12 percent) and third in money (11 percent).

"New York's a baseball town, it really is at the heart of it," Biggio said. "You turn on WFAN and people are talking baseball in the middle of football season. Especially in New York and New Jersey, you're going to see a lot of action on the two home teams, and both the Yankees and Mets have pretty high expectations this year. These prices are a little lower than what their true number is with the New York factor. There's a little bit of an underlay on these teams, you're not really going to see much value on the Yankees or Mets in my opinion."

The Angels haven't made the playoffs since 2014 or had a winning record since 2016, but they could be dangerous with reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani and a healthy Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Noah Syndergaard. Trout, a three-time AL MVP, and Rendon totaled just 94 games last year. Syndergaard not long ago was considered on the level of deGrom with the Mets but essentially hasn't pitched in the majors since 2019 due to injury. The big right-hander looked great this spring with a 1.04 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 11.4 innings.

The largest World Series futures wager taken at Caesars thus far was a Nevada bettor putting down $30,000 on the Angels at +3000 for potential winnings of $900,000. That is part of the reason why the Halos are taking the fifth-most money at five percent. At one point this offseason, they were +5000.

"The Angels are one of our biggest liabilities right now," Biggio said. "They're usually a popular team heading into the season, we've seen this story before. In the past, they've tended to overspend on hitting and not address the pitching staff as much. Now the staff is actually okay, they signed [Noah] Syndergaard and Ohtani has one of the rotation spots. That division is going to be really interesting, the Astros are the antithesis of a public team and the Angels and Mariners are seemingly on the rise."

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